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  TN-Sen, Gravis: Blackburn in the lead
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Author Topic: TN-Sen, Gravis: Blackburn in the lead  (Read 2195 times)
krazen1211
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« on: August 14, 2018, 08:59:54 am »

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

Blackburn 48
Bredesen 44

The victory in the primary is boosting Marsha Blackburn.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2018, 09:00:36 am »

Its gravis, garbage.

Edit: The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2018, 09:05:24 am »

Bad slate of polling for Democrats today.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2018, 09:09:34 am »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2018, 09:11:08 am »

Bredesen doing worse than unelectable joke candidate Jacky Rosen? No way!

J/k, this is Gravis and should be taken with a grain of salt. The race is still a Tossup because there is nothing Blackburn can do to win over #NeverTrump "Republicans"/"moderates" in places like Davidson and Williamson County, but she can still win if she gets her base out and East and rural TN come home.
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Landslide Warren
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2018, 09:13:52 am »

>g r a v i s
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KingSweden
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2018, 09:19:16 am »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because itís f*#@ing Gravis
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2018, 09:27:09 am »

I wonder who sponsored this poll? Thats usually  the story when they get wildly different results, its because they were sponsored.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 09:42:55 am »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Gravis Marketing on 2018-08-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2018, 09:58:15 am »

Undecideds here are disproportionately women, voters under age 30, and independents. In this election cycle, that's likely a good sign for Bredesen.
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2018, 10:01:50 am »

Does anybody know what AA turnout typically looks like in Tennessee? Is the 14% figure in this poll on the mark?
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2018, 10:10:51 am »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because itís f*#@ing Gravis
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mds32
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2018, 10:34:17 am »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.

This is similar to Bayh where the Dems in the end were overtaken in the end.
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Senate/SCOTUS/EC Delenda Est 👁
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2018, 11:01:25 am »

In the spirit of overreacting to a single Gravis poll, I will note one of my "bold" Senate predictions was:


I accept accolades in advance. Tongue

It is apparently easy to forget just how deep a deep-red state TN is these days. Although Bredesen will definitely overperform big time for a Democrat, he has a very steep hill to climb.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2018, 11:08:49 am »

Junk firm but the result in the end will likely be correct
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2018, 11:17:45 am »

Gravis should be treated with skepticism when:

A) it shows a good result for a Democrat
B) it shows a good result for a Republican
C) always, no matter the result, because itís f*#@ing Gravis
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oraclebones
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2018, 11:25:48 am »

The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.

What's hard to believe about 53% of people in a conservative state opposing same-sex marriage? Or have you bought into the media narrative that there's now total consensus in the country on this issue?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2018, 11:51:35 am »

The poll also says that a majority of voters oppose Same Sex Marriage. Color me skeptical.

What's hard to believe about 53% of people in a conservative state opposing same-sex marriage? Or have you bought into the media narrative that there's now total consensus in the country on this issue?
Well, its because, in the most recent surveys on the issue, around 2/3s are supportive of SSM, with only 30% against it. It just seems unlikely to me that TN, a rather moderate GOP state with a sizable Indie and Dem population, would be majority against it.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/234866/two-three-americans-support-sex-marriage.aspx
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Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2018, 12:47:05 pm »

But many posters told me Bredesen was inevitable because of muh six month early polls. Roll Eyes

It's all downhill for Bredesen from here. Dems might as well triage this race now, it's a waste of money.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2018, 01:01:28 pm »

TN governor race is safe R, but I wouldn't count out Bredesen just yet.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2018, 01:03:04 pm »
« Edited: August 14, 2018, 01:14:17 pm by Arkansas Yankee »

The best thing to happen for Blackburn was to have Lee win the Gubernatorial Primary.  The factions of the Party will come together.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2018, 01:05:04 pm »

The best thing to happen for Blackburn was to have Lee win the Primary.  The factions of the Party will come together.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2018, 01:55:07 pm »

>Gravis, but this doesn't seem too implausible. I don't think the Bayh comparisons are justified just yet, but it stands to reason that Blackburn has more room to grow than Bredesen.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2018, 02:28:01 pm »

>Gravis, but this doesn't seem too implausible. I don't think the Bayh comparisons are justified just yet, but it stands to reason that Blackburn has more room to grow than Bredesen.

This. I think Blackburn will take it in the end, winning 52-46%.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2018, 05:53:45 pm »

Bayh would win his Senate race if he were running in 2018.
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