CT Megathread: Stefanowski skips first debate

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Democratic race for attorney general race will be tight could go either way.

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Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state. Also Stefanowksi said he would give trump an A job and would love for him to campaign for him. Since when is Trump popular in Ct or won CT in the general?

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Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

If you look at the rest of country were the GOP gained huge numbers during the Obama years it’s actually quite surprising the republicans couldn’t have gained more ground especially with Malloy. It shows how toxic the Republican Party is in the state.  

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Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

If you look at the rest of country were the GOP gained huge numbers during the Obama years it’s actually quite surprising the republicans couldn’t have gained more ground especially with Malloy. It shows how toxic the Republican Party is in the state.  

Candidate's qualities still matter. Jodi Rell, IMHO, would win this year governor election rather easily...

Depends which Jodi Rell she was unpopular when she left which is why she never didn’t run for re election. Her LT governor Michael Fedele lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010 and could even win the mayors race in Stamford in 2013 were he was favored.

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Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state.

Here i fully agree. Republicans in Connecticut can't win with Republican vote only. It's not Utah or Idaho. Regretfully, even in Connecticut, where considerable number of moderate Republicans are elected for different offices (state legislature, first of all) there is rightward lean of late. This year governor candidate is, let's say, "moderate conservative", while LG candidate - "solid conservative". IMHO - somewhat "too much" for this state.

If you look at the rest of country were the GOP gained huge numbers during the Obama years it’s actually quite surprising the republicans couldn’t have gained more ground especially with Malloy. It shows how toxic the Republican Party is in the state.  

Candidate's qualities still matter. Jodi Rell, IMHO, would win this year governor election rather easily...

Depends which Jodi Rell she was unpopular when she left which is why she never didn’t run for re election. Her LT governor Michael Fedele lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010 and could even win the mayors race in Stamford in 2013 were he was favored.

It's impossible to be more unpopular then Malloy, IMHO))))

Obviously Malloy was unpopular but she didn’t run for re-election in 2010 because she knew she would lose.

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Trump just endorsed Stefanowski for governor. Good job CT republicans for injecting Trump into the race.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1029724286121074689?s=21

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Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state. Also Stefanowksi said he would give trump an A job and would love for him to campaign for him. Since when is Trump popular in Ct or won CT in the general?

I said i thought he would do better than what people expected. Poeple don't pay attention to the LG race. If you really are trying to associate Stefanowski with Trump you are literally delusional

And he did way worse than how you predicted. Trump just endorsed Stefanowski.....

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I like how Malloy never had approval ratings over 50% in his first term and he still won re-election by a few points during a Republican wave year.

Likely D.

Because of Joe Visconti and the fact that Tom Foley was an awful candidate. But he's a lot more unpopular now than even then, and Bob is far from feckless like Foley was.

The republicans haven't learned much from Foley's defeat tbh. They nominated a payday executive and decided to go more to the right in a state Trump lost by double digits.

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Stefanowski welcomes the endorsement

dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb

Nope. Not welcoming the endorsement would make it a bigger issue and cause a wedge with his base. There's a difference between your average anti-Trump Greenwich voter and a pro-Trump supporter from Watertown. Both places exist within the same state.

Ask Dan Carter or Linda McMahon or any republican in the last 10 years how well they did just courting the Watertown Republican voter.  The republicans base in the state is small. If Republicans want to win they have to court democrats and independents which is something republicans in
CT don't get.

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Stefanowski welcomes the endorsement

dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb

Nope. Not welcoming the endorsement would make it a bigger issue and cause a wedge with his base. There's a difference between your average anti-Trump Greenwich voter and a pro-Trump supporter from Watertown. Both places exist within the same state.

Ask Dan Carter or Linda McMahon or any republican in the last 10 years how well they did just courting the Watertown Republican voter.  The republicans base in the state is small. If Republicans want to win they have to court democrats and independents which is something republicans in
CT don't get.

Oh, I think Stefanowski does get that he has to reach out to Independents and certain Democrats to win (those with Trump Derangement Syndrome need not apply). But not accepting the Trump endorsement would make it an even bigger issue than it already is. You don't get into a war with the leader of your party, however unpopular he may be in the state - it just doesn't work out well to get into a feud. You say thank you and try to move on - and then try to hang the even more unpopular Democratic governor around your opponent's neck.

Lamont is the favorite to win CT Gov right now. But nothing is guaranteed. It is nowhere close to Safe D, as some Democratic hacks on this website would want you to believe.

I agree I would not put it at Safe D.  I think the safest play would be to follow Charlie Baker's lead. Granted if Stefanowski was anything like Baker this race would be lean R. For whatever reason the CT republicans are trying to hitch their ride to trump.

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http://www.wfsb.com/story/39024838/stephanowski-to-skip-gubernatorial-debate
Avoiding debates is almost never a winning play. Also interested to hear about Oz Griebel's candidacy. I don't expect him to do too well, but a more moderate right-of-center candidate might give Lamont an extra couple of points of cushion.

Did Bob learn NOTHING from when Tom Foley did this in 2014?

Nope.