NM-SEN: Gary Johnson in

[Alabama_Indy10]

"He's socially... cool!"

[Harlow]

I will be paying attention to this because I'm a sucker for watching third-party candidates with a legitimate chance of getting at least 10% of the vote.

[wesmoorenerd]

I can see a path to victory for Johnson, but it is extremely narrow.

The first two steps are to get Rich out and secure dissatisfied Republican money (i.e. Koch support).

Getting Rich out would improve Johnson's odds from 0% to less than 1%. Honestly, he could flood the airwaves all he wants, but the fundamentals could hardly be stacked against him more. This isn't 2004 anymore, New Mexico has become a truly safe D state. Add that to the absurdly unfavorable environment and the fact that people are moving this race to Lean D or whatever is absolutely laughable.

[Former President tack50]

Now I wonder, will Gary Johnson win any counties? Back in 2016 his best county was Los Alamos county at 51-31-14 for Clinton-Trump-Johnson

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Heinrich is safe.

[Continential]

I can see a path to victory for Johnson, but it is extremely narrow.

The first two steps are to get Rich out and secure dissatisfied Republican money (i.e. Koch support).

Getting Rich out would improve Johnson's odds from 0% to less than 1%. Honestly, he could flood the airwaves all he wants, but the fundamentals could hardly be stacked against him more. This isn't 2004 anymore, New Mexico has become a truly safe D state. Add that to the absurdly unfavorable environment and the fact that people are moving this race to Lean D or whatever is absolutely laughable.

If Rich drops out it’s likely

[😥]

If Rich drops out: Lean+ D
If Rich doesn't drop out: Safe D

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh God, the tenor of discussion in the FL race thread is already ridiculous enough, but this takes it to a whole new level. Heinrich is simply not losing in 2018.

[Independents for Nihilism]

He's at least 6 years too late for this. Instead of focusing on doomed presidential races he could have run for the senate in 2012 for an open seat, using his reputation as a moderately successful governor instead of as a presidential spoiler, and hell he could have even done it as a libertarian if he wanted to be idealistic. That had the chance to be a competitive 3-way race or a win for him as an R, but now his time has passed and he'll forever be Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson.

[IceSpear]

Oh God, the tenor of discussion in the FL race thread is already ridiculous enough, but this takes it to a whole new level. Heinrich is simply not losing in 2018.

No, no. Republicans will win NM/NV in a landslide while Democrats do the same in AZ. #WesternRealignment

[Orser67]

If Rich drops out: Safe D

If Rich doesn't drop out: Titanium D

[InheritTheWind]

If Rich drops out: Safe D
If Rich stays in: Safe D
If Heinrich dies and they have to run Anthony Weiner in his place for some reason: Likely D

[Continential]

If Rich drops out: Safe D
If Rich stays in: Safe D
If Heinrich dies and they have to run Anthony Weiner in his place for some reason: SAFE L

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Rich drops out: Safe D
If Rich stays in: Safe D
If Heinrich dies and they have to run Anthony Weiner in his place for some reason: SAFE L

[Progressive Pessimist]

May the prettiest man win!

[JG]

May the prettiest man win!