Vermont - 2018 GOV Race Thread

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

With over 90% of the votes counted, Hallquist and Scott have won their primaries by large margins

[Skye]

Did the same guy won every GOP primary for the other offices? How does that even work?

[Free Bird]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige

[Hammy]

Did the same guy won every GOP primary for the other offices? How does that even work?

It's even funnier that they had to get a guy who was a Democrat two years ago in order to even field a candidate.

[Dr. Arch]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige

One who is many... Many who are one...

[Bumaye]

I support any candidate with the last name Sonneborn. Martin, Engelbert, Ethan, doesn't matter. That name guarantees my endorsement.

[TheSaint250]

Remember when Phil Scott was supposed to lose?

[smoltchanov]

Remember when Phil Scott was supposed to lose?

Republicans in Vermont turned out to be saner, then in many other states, and didn't defeated the only one candidate, who can win a statewide post for them...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Is GOP primary challenger Keith Stern a hard-right Tea Party Republican?

I wonder why there is a north-south divide regarding the results.
If Stern is really a hard-right Tea Party Republican, shouldn't he have performed way better in the North?

[Zaybay]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

[smoltchanov]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

Well, North-South division is rather typical for Vermont's Republican primary. When Scott first ran for governor in 2016 (against more conservative Bruce Lisman) - he even lost Rutland, Bennington and Windsor counties, and got about 60% overall. This year he at least won them and improved percentagewise... By some reasons republicans from Vermont's southern counties vote substantially more conservative, then even from North-East Kingdom...

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806782

[Zaybay]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

Well, North-South division is rather typical for Vermont's Republican primary. When Scott first ran for governor in 2016 (against more conservative Bruce Lisman) - he even lost Rutland, Bennington and Windsor counties, and got about 60% overall. This year he at least won them and improved percentagewise... By some reasons republicans from Vermont's southern counties vote substantially more conservative, then even from North-East Kingdom...

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806782

That is true, I believe it is because most of the urban/suburban/urban rurals are located in the North of the state, which means the Rs are more likely to be more moderate, while the South contains pure rurals, which can lead to R polarization.

And while, in 2016, he did only net 60%, its clear from this primary that he has lost support among the R base, and he needs them to win. He cant just rely on the swingy and unreliable I and D votes.

[smoltchanov]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

Well, North-South division is rather typical for Vermont's Republican primary. When Scott first ran for governor in 2016 (against more conservative Bruce Lisman) - he even lost Rutland, Bennington and Windsor counties, and got about 60% overall. This year he at least won them and improved percentagewise... By some reasons republicans from Vermont's southern counties vote substantially more conservative, then even from North-East Kingdom...

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806782

That is true, I believe it is because most of the urban/suburban/urban rurals are located in the North of the state, which means the Rs are more likely to be more moderate, while the South contains pure rurals, which can lead to R polarization.

And while, in 2016, he did only net 60%, its clear from this primary that he has lost support among the R base, and he needs them to win. He cant just rely on the swingy and unreliable I and D votes.

I would say - "he needs at least SOME of them to win". Democratic candidate, while NOT "some dude"type,  is NOT the strongest of possible, so race stands at "solid Likely R" in my "book".

[Zaybay]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

Well, North-South division is rather typical for Vermont's Republican primary. When Scott first ran for governor in 2016 (against more conservative Bruce Lisman) - he even lost Rutland, Bennington and Windsor counties, and got about 60% overall. This year he at least won them and improved percentagewise... By some reasons republicans from Vermont's southern counties vote substantially more conservative, then even from North-East Kingdom...

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806782

That is true, I believe it is because most of the urban/suburban/urban rurals are located in the North of the state, which means the Rs are more likely to be more moderate, while the South contains pure rurals, which can lead to R polarization.

And while, in 2016, he did only net 60%, its clear from this primary that he has lost support among the R base, and he needs them to win. He cant just rely on the swingy and unreliable I and D votes.

I would say - "he needs at least SOME of them to win". Democratic candidate, while NOT "some dude"type,  is NOT the strongest of possible, so race stands at "solid Likely R" in my "book".

I would like to see some polling for this race, especially now that Sanders is campaigning for the D candidate.

[smoltchanov]

Keith Stern was a Far-Right Trumpist, but also one who didnt campaign and was really a nobody. For Scott to lose a 1/3 of his base support to what was practically the man who wasnt Scott is bad news for him. It shows that, unlike with Hogan, Baker, and Sununu, his base isnt fully supporting him, and he will have to rely completely on D and I voters to win.

Still Likely R though

Well, North-South division is rather typical for Vermont's Republican primary. When Scott first ran for governor in 2016 (against more conservative Bruce Lisman) - he even lost Rutland, Bennington and Windsor counties, and got about 60% overall. This year he at least won them and improved percentagewise... By some reasons republicans from Vermont's southern counties vote substantially more conservative, then even from North-East Kingdom...

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=806782

That is true, I believe it is because most of the urban/suburban/urban rurals are located in the North of the state, which means the Rs are more likely to be more moderate, while the South contains pure rurals, which can lead to R polarization.

And while, in 2016, he did only net 60%, its clear from this primary that he has lost support among the R base, and he needs them to win. He cant just rely on the swingy and unreliable I and D votes.

I would say - "he needs at least SOME of them to win". Democratic candidate, while NOT "some dude"type,  is NOT the strongest of possible, so race stands at "solid Likely R" in my "book".

I would like to see some polling for this race, especially now that Sanders is campaigning for the D candidate.

IIRC - Sanders campaigned for Democratic candidate in 2016 too, and that candidate was more well-known. It didn't helped much.

[here2view]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige

https://www.google.com/search?q=brooke+paige+vermont&num=30&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3lIv2nu_cAhUM2oMKHT3MATEQ_AUICygC&biw=1280&bih=608

Don't know how to insert images but this guy is looks like he should be the Monopoly Man.

[MAINEiac4434]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige

https://www.google.com/search?q=brooke+paige+vermont&num=30&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3lIv2nu_cAhUM2oMKHT3MATEQ_AUICygC&biw=1280&bih=608

Don't know how to insert images but this guy is looks like he should be the Monopoly Man.

Those images made me approximately 6% more Marxist

[Tender Branson]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige ?

An American porn actress.

[smoltchanov]

Who the hell is Brooke Paige ?

An American porn actress.

What a beauty))) Sure - next Senator, Representative and ... whatever else))))

[OneJ]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

[Zaybay]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

Whats likely to occur is a Scott victory, but by a modest to small margin. But if Sanders pulls out all the stops, and the Rs dont show up, then its possible for an upset.

[YE]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

Whats likely to occur is a Scott victory, but by a modest to small margin. But if Sanders pulls out all the stops, and the Rs dont show up, then its possible for an upset.

Bernie Sanders has better things to worry about than VT-GOV.

[Zaybay]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

Whats likely to occur is a Scott victory, but by a modest to small margin. But if Sanders pulls out all the stops, and the Rs dont show up, then its possible for an upset.

Bernie Sanders has better things to worry about than VT-GOV.

I mean, he can just do like, one or two big campaign stops. That would give Hallquist some political points. I dont want Sanders to just do an event for her every day, just a couple, which would lower Scott's margins and leave him open for an upset.

[smoltchanov]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

Whats likely to occur is a Scott victory, but by a modest to small margin. But if Sanders pulls out all the stops, and the Rs dont show up, then its possible for an upset.

Bernie Sanders has better things to worry about than VT-GOV.

I mean, he can just do like, one or two big campaign stops. That would give Hallquist some political points. I dont want Sanders to just do an event for her every day, just a couple, which would lower Scott's margins and leave him open for an upset.

IMHO - wishful thinking. Scott always got a ton of votes from Indies and Democrats, and likely will get them again. The "gun control controversy" is slowly subsiding, and most of conservative Republicans will vote (reluctanly) for Scott, Hallquist is NOT an alternative for them (Rogers - could be). Hallquist is nit overwhelmingly popular even with Democrats, winning only plurality against not too strong opponents. And so on. Modest Scott victory is most likely outcome.

[Zaybay]

So guys, what does the Governor’s race look like right now? I don’t think he’s as “safe” as others believe he is after last Tuesday’s results. The Dems outvoted the Republicans in the Gunernatorial primary by a clear margin, unsurprisingly and Scott got a not-so-good % for an incumbent. Halliquist even barely got more primary votes than him. Yes, I know it’s best not to read into primaries for the general election but still...

Whats likely to occur is a Scott victory, but by a modest to small margin. But if Sanders pulls out all the stops, and the Rs dont show up, then its possible for an upset.

Bernie Sanders has better things to worry about than VT-GOV.

I mean, he can just do like, one or two big campaign stops. That would give Hallquist some political points. I dont want Sanders to just do an event for her every day, just a couple, which would lower Scott's margins and leave him open for an upset.

IMHO - wishful thinking. Scott always got a ton of votes from Indies and Democrats, and likely will get them again. The "gun control controversy" is slowly subsiding, and most of conservative Republicans will vote (reluctanly) for Scott, Hallquist is NOT an alternative for them (Rogers - could be). Hallquist is nit overwhelmingly popular even with Democrats, winning only plurality against not too strong opponents. And so on. Modest Scott victory is most likely outcome.

I never said she would win, I just came up with a scenario on how she could.

Also, its hard to say whether Ds and Is would vote for Scott in large numbers now that there is a blue wave. If you look at recent electoral history, there has been no example of a popular incumbent in a hostile state winning election. So, call me a skeptic.