Which one of these scenarios is most likely in 2020?
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  Which one of these scenarios is most likely in 2020?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which one of these scenarios is most likely in 2020?
#1
Trump wins Pennsylvania		  
#2
The Democrat wins Florida		  
#3
Trump wins Michigan		  
#4
The Democrat wins Pennsylvania		  
#5
Trump wins Iowa		  
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Which one of these scenarios is most likely in 2020?  (Read 694 times)
SN2903
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« on: August 14, 2018, 08:22:50 PM »
Which one of these scenarios is most likely in 2020? See poll. I voted Trump wins Iowa.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2018, 08:29:37 PM »
The Democrat wins PA.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2018, 09:02:06 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2018, 10:26:58 PM by slightlyburnttoast »
1. The Democrat wins PA (65% chance)
2. Trump wins IA (60% chance)
3. The Democrat wins Florida (50% chance)
4. Trump wins PA (35% chance)
5. Trump wins MI (25% chance)
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2018, 01:00:28 AM »
1. Trump wins IA (85% chance)
2. The Democrat wins PA (51% chance)
3. Trump wins PA (49% chance)
4. The Democrat wins Florida (49% chance)
5. Trump wins MI (40% chance)
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2018, 09:48:42 AM »
1.Trump wins IA (70%)
2.Dems wins PA (52%)
3.Trump wins PA (48%)
4.Trump wins MI (31%)
5.Dems wins FL (30%)
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Peanut
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2018, 09:55:01 AM »
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2018, 10:13:02 AM »
Trump wins Iowa.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2018, 10:22:16 AM »
I agree; Trump is Trump. People like him or don't like him. For Trump to lose Iowa, a LOT of votes would have to flip. The other four scenarios would require little if any vote switching.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2018, 03:12:06 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on August 15, 2018, 10:22:16 AM
I agree; Trump is Trump. People like him or don't like him. For Trump to lose Iowa, a LOT of votes would have to flip. The other four scenarios would require little if any vote switching.

Sabato has taken Iowa as well as Ohio out of the Lean R category to tossup. Reynolds can lose in a big enough wage. So, can Ducey as well. It's unlikely, due to Wolf's magin, 60-40 that Trump wins PA, again, since its a +4 Democratic state, COOK PVI.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 03:15:52 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on August 15, 2018, 03:12:06 PM
Quote from: mathstatman on August 15, 2018, 10:22:16 AM
I agree; Trump is Trump. People like him or don't like him. For Trump to lose Iowa, a LOT of votes would have to flip. The other four scenarios would require little if any vote switching.

Sabato has taken Iowa as well as Ohio out of the Lean R category to tossup. Reynolds can lose in a big enough wage. So, can Ducey as well. It's unlikely, due to Wolf's magin, 60-40 that Trump wins PA, again, since its a +4 Democratic state, COOK PVI.
Interesting; I'll have to check that out.

I might be proven wrong. In 1970, who would have predicted that, in 1972, Nixon would do better in New York than in Iowa?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2018, 06:26:26 PM »

This, unfortunately. 
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2018, 02:02:51 PM »
Trump is definitely winning Iowa, it went for him more than Texas did.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2018, 05:34:25 PM »
Trump wins Iowa (60%)
The Democrat wins Pennsylvania (55%)
The Democrat wins Florida (47%)
Trump wins Pennsylvania (45%)
Trump wins Michigan (35%)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2018, 05:48:09 PM »
Quote from: Absurdly Weak Retail Politician MT Treasurer on August 15, 2018, 01:00:28 AM
1. Trump wins IA (85% chance)
2. The Democrat wins PA (51% chance)
3. Trump wins PA (49% chance)
4. The Democrat wins Florida (49% chance)
5. Trump wins MI (40% chance)

I thought you expected Trump to be reelected?!
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