I agree; Trump is Trump. People like him or don't like him. For Trump to lose Iowa, a LOT of votes would have to flip. The other four scenarios would require little if any vote switching.
Sabato has taken Iowa as well as Ohio out of the Lean R category to tossup. Reynolds can lose in a big enough wage. So, can Ducey as well. It's unlikely, due to Wolf's magin, 60-40 that Trump wins PA, again, since its a +4 Democratic state, COOK PVI.
Interesting; I'll have to check that out.
I might be proven wrong. In 1970, who would have predicted that, in 1972, Nixon would do better in New York than in Iowa?
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