2018- Choose your own Senate
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2018, 12:26:10 PM »

Voted straight D, with the exception of Hyde-Smith and Hugin.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2018, 12:33:27 PM »

Straight D except for Hugin and Gary Johnson.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2018, 01:04:01 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #28 on: August 17, 2018, 01:22:02 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: August 17, 2018, 01:30:36 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
I'm very aware of that. The system I used to calculate this was only an experiment, and it will probably be tweaked a lot. To counteract these 'unrealistic' results, I'm considering increasing the effect PVI has on the final election results.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #30 on: August 17, 2018, 04:17:15 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
yeah but im sure tons of us voted for De La Fuente because meme
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #31 on: August 17, 2018, 04:49:23 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
yeah but im sure tons of us voted for De La Fuente because meme

That's really no excuse.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #32 on: August 17, 2018, 06:53:38 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
yeah but im sure tons of us voted for De La Fuente because meme

That's really no excuse.
these sorts of things tend to get meme-y. Look at homestar's original version of this and you'll see.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: August 17, 2018, 07:45:58 PM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
yeah but im sure tons of us voted for De La Fuente because meme

That's really no excuse.
these sorts of things tend to get meme-y. Look at homestar's original version of this and you'll see.
Well, I'm planning to increase the PVI modifier to 0.5% from 0.2%. That combined with more votes for Carper should fix this.
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katman46
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« Reply #34 on: August 18, 2018, 02:09:52 AM »

Early investigation of results shows a large gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters, meaning a large swing will probably occur. To investigate the likely results of this swing, I determined the results when 15% of the Democratic vote is given to the Republican candidate for states with PVI EVEN, and this is adjusted by 0.2 points per point in PVI. For example, Wyoming would have 20% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican, and Hawaii would have 11.4% of the Democratic vote given to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races, the more conservative candidate gets the same bonus.

As people are voting as I compile the results, these are merely approximate.

Arizona
Krysten Sinema 56.7% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Joe Arpaio 31.8%
Other 10.6%

California 'Runoff'*
Kevin De Leon 45.3% [DEMOCRATIC HOLD]
Dianne Feinstein 38.9% (i)
*due to my overwhelming stupidity I put write-ins on this race (facepalm)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (i) 61.2% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 38.8%

Delaware
Rocky De La Fuente 50.6% [R-GAIN]
Tom Carper (i) 49.4%

Florida
Bill Nelson (i) 64.6% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 35.4%

Hawaii
Mazie Hirono (i) 62.3% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 37.7%

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (i) 62.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 31.8%

Maine
-n/a-

Maryland
Ben Cardin (i) 61.1% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 33.7%

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren 62.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 32.6%

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow 60.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 34.8%

I gtg, but conculsions that can be drawn are that results calculated using this formula favor Democrats, but Republicans can still win. Please continue to vote at the link above, and by Saturday I should have a more concrete idea about how swings will be applied to the results [and how to swing Maine's election xD].

I'm sorry, but it would more sense to elect Rick Scott than Rocky De La Fuente.
yeah but im sure tons of us voted for De La Fuente because meme

That's really no excuse.
these sorts of things tend to get meme-y. Look at homestar's original version of this and you'll see.
Well, I'm planning to increase the PVI modifier to 0.5% from 0.2%. That combined with more votes for Carper should fix this.

Now I feel bad for writing in Joe Biden

God the Delaware GOP is straight trash
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: August 18, 2018, 05:00:12 PM »

While turnout isn't as high as I would like, it appears that voting has trickled to a halt. Results are currently being calculated and will be out soon!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: August 18, 2018, 05:40:35 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2018, 06:27:12 PM by Moderate Dem 2020 »

Results

Information
For a state with a PVI of even, 23.3% of the Democratic vote was given to the Republican. By this I mean a 80-20 Democratic win becomes a 56.7-43.3 Democratic win.
Every PVI point modified this shift by 0.5%. For example, a state with PVI D+1 will have 22.8% of the Democratic vote shifted to the Republican. In 2-Democrat races like California, the more conservative candidate got the bonus normally given to the Republican.

Arizona Senate Election
Krysten Sinema 54.2% [D-GAIN #1]
Joe Arpaio 39.1%
Other 6.7%

California Senate Election
Dianne Feinstein (i) 54.0% [D-HOLD]
Kevin De Leon 32.7%

Connecticut Senate Election
Chris Murphy (i) 62.5% [D-HOLD]
Matthew Corey 37.5%

Delaware Senate Election
Proceeding to Runoff
Tom Carper (i) 48.7%
Rocky De La Fuente 47.9%
Joe Biden (write-in) 3.4%

Florida Senate Election
Bill Nelson (i) 58.5% [D-HOLD]
Rick Scott 41.5%

Hawai'i Senate Election
Mazie Hirono (i) 64.4% [D-HOLD]
Ron Curtis 35.6%

Indiana Senate Election
Joe Donnelly (i) 52.2% [D-HOLD]
Mike Braun 44.5%
James Johnson 3.3%

Maine Senate Election
Angus King (i) 60.0% first round votes [I-HOLD]

Maryland Senate Election
Ben Cardin (i) 62.0% [D-HOLD]
Tony Campbell 31.1%
Other 6.9%

Massachusetts Senate Election
Elizabeth Warren (i) 59.4% [D-HOLD]
Beth Lindstrom 30.6%
Shiva Ayyadurai 10%

Michigan Senate Election
Debbie Stabenow (i) 57.2% [D-HOLD]
John James 39.5%
Other 3.3%

Minnesota Regular Senate Election
Amy Klobuchar (i) 60.5% [D-HOLD]
Jim Newberger 36.1%
Other 3.4%

Minnesota Special Senate Election
Tina Smith (i) 60.0% [D-HOLD]
Karin Housey 40.0%

Mississippi Regular Senate Election
David Baria 52.2% [D-GAIN]
Roger Wicker (i) 47.8%

Mississippi Special Senate Election Primary
Proceeding to Runoff
Mike Espy 48.9%
Cindy Hyde-Smith (i) 30.5%
Chris McDaniel 20.6%

Missouri Senate Election
Proceeding to Runoff
Claire McCaskill (i) 48.9%
Josh Hawley 41.1%
Japheth Campbell 10%

Montana Senate Election
Jon Tester (i) 54.5% [D-HOLD]
Matt Rosendale 45.5%

Nebraska Senate Election
Deb Fischer (i) 51.7% [R-HOLD]
Jane Raybould 41.1%
Jim Schultz 7.2%

Nevada Senate Election
Jacky Rosen 60.5% [D-GAIN]
Dean Heller (i) 39.5%

New Jersey Senate Election
Bob Hugin 56.5% [R-GAIN]
Bob Menendez (i) 30.2%
Other 13.3%

More coming soon...
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2018, 04:15:09 PM »

Results Continued

New Mexico Senate Election
Proceeding to Runoff
Martin Heinrich (i) 38.2%
Gary Johnson 36.7%
Mike Rich 25.1%

New York Senate Election
Kirsten Gillibrand (i) 66% [D-HOLD]
Chele Chiavacci Farley 30.7%
Other 3.3%

North Dakota Senate Election
Kevin Cramer 51.8% [R-GAIN]
Heidi Heitkamp (i) 48.2%

Ohio Senate Election
Sherrod Brown (i) 58.5% [D-HOLD]
Jim Renacci 38.1%
Other 3.4%

Pennsylvania Senate Election
Bob Casey Jr. (i) 62.9% [D-HOLD]
Lou Barletta 37.1%

Rhode Island Senate Election
Sheldon Whitehouse (i) 61.7% [D-HOLD]
Robert Flanders 35.0%
Other 3.3%

Tennessee Senate Election
Phil Bredesen 53.0% [D-GAIN]
Marsha Blackburn 43.6%
Other 3.4%

Texas Senate Election
Ted Cruz (i) 50.6% [R-HOLD]
Beto O'Rourke 49.4%

Utah Senate Election
Mitt Romney 74.0% [R-HOLD]
Jenny Wilson 22.3%
Other 3.7%

Vermont Senate Election
Bernie Sanders (i) 57.5% [D/I-HOLD]
Brooke Paige 39.1%
Other 3.4%

Virginia Senate Election
Tim Kaine (i) 60.5% [D-HOLD]
Corey Stewart 32.8%
Various Others 6.7%

Washington Senate Election
Maria Cantwell (i) 63.5% [D-HOLD]
Susan Hutchinson 36.5%

West Virginia Senate Election
Joe Manchin (i) 53.9% [D-HOLD]
Patrick Morrisey 42.8%
Other 3.3%

Wisconsin Senate Election
Tammy Baldwin (i) 60.0% [D-HOLD]
Leah Vukmir 36.6%
Other 3.4%

Wyoming Senate Election
John Barrasso (i) 60.8% [R-HOLD]
Gary Trauner 39.2%

Senate Composition
Republicans 48 (-3)
Democrats 46 (-1)
Independents 2 (+/-0)
Proceeding to Runoff 4 (+4)


IA represents MN special, AL represents MS special. 30% = gain, 70% = hold. 50% green is proceeding to runoff.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: August 19, 2018, 07:46:50 PM »

Vote in runoffs: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeeGVjT5JoIo1cDeh5iC5oHZphj1nswnyEAmjR59D-ahaUTVg/viewform
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