IN: Trafalgar Group: Donnelly +12

[pbrower2a]

Lol. I believe this is a Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want.

We see few polls in Indiana. The common wisdom was that the Republicans would defeat Donnelly in a strong-R state. 50% wins.

Note that Trump approval is abysmal in Indiana -- for Indiana. That matters greatly. Unless you want to claim that this poll has a bad sample, don't argue with it.  This is a Republican pollster;  wait for the next one or the 2016 election to see how this result goes.

Indiana is very rural. Does anyone think that the tariffs and trade war will help Republicans of any kind in the Hoosier State?

[Skye]

It says they polled 1420 people but those crosstabs look like they polled just 50 lol.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Has there ever been a poll this insane?

[Zaybay]

I know I was begging for some polling from IN, but, this, its bad. I can believe that Donnelly is up by 12, Blue Wave, elasticity, and tariffs and all. But these crosstabs, disgusting. The only problem, however, is that this pollster famously leans R, so Im unsure if even a bias can explain the crazy D lead. And gravis, another crappy pollster, got a larger amount for Donelly with the other two.


Garbage, but does point to the race being close, with Donelly being the one ahead.

[UncleSam]

Lots of red flags but still a good poll for Donnelly. +12 is a big lead even among a small sample size. Obviously the cross tabs make this a suspect poll and I’m surprised Trafalgar released this - I agree with others that there must be an ulterior motive here.

[IceSpear]

The downfall of Trafalgar has been pretty funny. I remember everyone here thought they were the "gold standard" in 2017, lol.

[Zaybay]

The problem with this poll is not the crosstabs, its the absurd lead. Sure, you can chalk it all up to bad methodolgy, but this lead is rather insane, and even a methodolgy fix would be unlikely to give Braun the lead.

It also pains me because this is the second poll of the race. Gravis released one the day of the primary, and thats it. This is all we have. How am I suppose to make predictions with this?

[IceSpear]

Has there ever been a poll this insane?

Here's a good one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201476.0

It also mentions a few other even worse ones near the bottom, lol.

[Skye]

I can believe that Donnelly is up by 12, Blue Wave, elasticity, and tariffs and all. But these crosstabs, disgusting.


Garbage, but does point to the race being close, with Donelly being the one ahead.

The problem with this poll is not the crosstabs, its the absurd lead. Sure, you can chalk it all up to bad methodolgy, but this lead is rather insane, and even a methodolgy fix would be unlikely to give Braun the lead.

WHICH IS IT ZAYBAY

[Skye]

The downfall of Trafalgar has been pretty funny. I remember everyone here thought they were the "gold standard" in 2017, lol.

I mostly say it in a tongue-in-cheek manner. Though they have gotten some crazy goo results as well. Remember how they almost exactly predicted the margin of the SC GOP Runoff? That was scary.

[Zaybay]

I can believe that Donnelly is up by 12, Blue Wave, elasticity, and tariffs and all. But these crosstabs, disgusting.


Garbage, but does point to the race being close, with Donelly being the one ahead.

The problem with this poll is not the crosstabs, its the absurd lead. Sure, you can chalk it all up to bad methodolgy, but this lead is rather insane, and even a methodolgy fix would be unlikely to give Braun the lead.

WHICH IS IT ZAYBAY

The lead, definitely. If you were to adjust these numbers to believable amounts(basically adjusting for previous patters in voting among groups) then Donelly still wins by 4 points. Its a big difference, but in the end, the lead is pretty insurmountable.

Edit: I mistakenly found 6 the first time I did the math, so I have changed it to the correct amount

[cvparty]

juggernaut joe

[Greatblueheron]

This poll is a total joke. Right now, I still rate this race as Tossup, with a small but decisive edge for Mike Braun.

[junior chįmp]

Lol:

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[Politician]

Lol:

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See? Here's the proof red state Dems SHOULDN'T vote for Kavanaugh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems need to stand for something, and fortunately, a reversal of fortune, the Kavanaugh vote has energized more Dems to vote. Unlike, in 2016, where the Scalia seat energized Conservatives.

When you remove Roe from the equation, then females will galvanize behind Democats, like Pelosi and many females running for public office.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Lol:

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See? Here's the proof red state Dems SHOULDN'T vote for Kavanaugh.

He shouldn't vote either for or against Kavanaugh.  Either way eats into his lead.

[IceSpear]

Lol:

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See? Here's the proof red state Dems SHOULDN'T vote for Kavanaugh.

He shouldn't vote either for or against Kavanaugh.  Either way eats into his lead.

And to think Republicans criticized Obama for voting present so much. Now we see why he did!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Morrisey and Braun who had spectacular primary victories have done very little to reinforce the voters how to take down Manchin and Donnelly, in otherwise red state.

Pence who was supposed to be Braun's ace in the hole, has campaigned for Braun, but very little spotlight has been shown on him in recent weeks.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If this poll is not an outlier, I am going to go into seclusion to read the new biography of Grant by Ron Chernow.959 pages. Don’t know why he did not go for a 1,000.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If this poll is not an outlier, I am going to go into seclusion to read the new biography of Grant by Ron Chernow.959 pages. Don’t know why he did not go for a 1,000.

it is an outlier lol

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Safe R ---> Lean R

[KingSweden]

If this poll is not an outlier, I am going to go into seclusion to read the new biography of Grant by Ron Chernow.959 pages. Don’t know why he did not go for a 1,000.

You should read it anyways it sounds fascinating

[South Dakota Democrat]

Lol. Likely R race. But choose to believe this poll if you want. November ain't gonna be pretty.

You are the most insufferable hack in the history of insufferable hacks.

True, he's the worst.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Did you notice the race actually got better for Donnelly in the poll after he didn't vote for Kavanaugh in the poll