Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?
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  Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?
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Poll
Question: Which Midwestern States are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?
#1
Wisconsin
 
#2
Michigan
 
#3
Ohio
 
#4
Minnesota
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?  (Read 3716 times)
Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« on: August 15, 2018, 11:25:51 AM »

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2018, 11:50:57 AM »

Depends. If by Dems you mean this forum, then definitely Wisconsin, since many people seem to be convinced that race is likely/safe D now. If you mean overall, then Ohio is probably the toughest nut of these to crack.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2018, 11:53:59 AM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2018, 12:04:19 PM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2018, 12:04:53 PM »

How are you going to call Dems out for being overconfident when you are the doing the same thing?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2018, 12:26:28 PM »

OH, the Dems are gonna win with Harris or Booker on the ticket, WI, PA, MI and MN
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2018, 12:27:57 PM »

This thread is solid gold for the irony oremine. A couple of posters on Atlas are overconfident about Walker losing (WI-GOV certainly isn't Safe D), but many more in the real world are way too confident about Walker surviving (muh he won three times before, so he can't POSSIBLY lose! Plus muh Wisconsin is a deep red state now because muh Trump/Johnson!!!!)
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2018, 12:30:31 PM »

Wisconsin since Walker is the incumbent.




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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2018, 12:46:16 PM »

WI probably wont vote GOP again.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 12:47:58 PM »


What
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2018, 01:54:15 PM »


Wisconsin will never vote GOP again.

Even Sensenbrenner will lose.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2018, 01:56:16 PM »


Make it so!  8]
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: August 15, 2018, 02:07:17 PM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: August 15, 2018, 02:54:38 PM »


COOK PVI had it +2 D anyways.  And Ryan Speakership debacle has made things worse. Manufacturing disappearing jobs has been a problem all over the Midwest and GOP, like Walker wants to continue giving corporations tax cuts.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #14 on: August 15, 2018, 03:13:18 PM »


COOK PVI had it +2 D anyways.  And Ryan Speakership debacle has made things worse. Manufacturing disappearing jobs has been a problem all over the Midwest and GOP, like Walker wants to continue giving corporations tax cuts.

Actually Cook rates WI as EVEN

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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2018, 03:48:51 PM »

This thread is solid gold for the irony oremine. A couple of posters on Atlas are overconfident about Walker losing (WI-GOV certainly isn't Safe D), but many more in the real world are way too confident about Walker surviving (muh he won three times before, so he can't POSSIBLY lose! Plus muh Wisconsin is a deep red state now because muh Trump/Johnson!!!!)
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Grassroots
Grassr00ts
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2018, 09:37:36 AM »

Illinois.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2018, 10:27:51 AM »

The “DEMS ARE PACKED INTO MILWAUKEE AND MADISON” thing is a myth.

Only 37% of Hillary’s vote came from Milwaukee and Dane combined. That means nearly two thirds of Hillary 2016 voters came from outside those two counties.

Rebecca Dallet only got 34.8% of her vote from those two counties in the State Supreme Court race this past spring, and actually won a majority of state legislative seats!
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2018, 10:56:41 AM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2018, 11:19:26 AM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2018, 11:25:53 AM »

Unpopular pick: Michigan. It's pretty pathetic that the state elected Snyder twice and voted for Trump considering 1) the incredible amount of attention the Obama administration gave to rescuing/restructuring the auto industry in spite of largely Republican opposition and 2) the Flint water crisis (the latter is more for Trump than Snyder obviously).

Republican brand should have been permanently tarnished in the state by 2016, and yet, that year they faced no electoral consequences. I think it's likely that Whitmer wins but long term prospects in this state are not good for Democrats.


ah hofoid, you sly dog
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2018, 11:27:43 AM »

They aren't "overconfident" about any of them. The actual evidence (i.e. special elections, polls, Democrats nominating strong candidates) contradicts your "red wave" narrative.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2018, 11:28:19 AM »

Unpopular pick: Michigan. It's pretty pathetic that the state elected Snyder twice and voted for Trump considering 1) the incredible amount of attention the Obama administration gave to rescuing/restructuring the auto industry in spite of largely Republican opposition and 2) the Flint water crisis (the latter is more for Trump than Snyder obviously).

Republican brand should have been permanently tarnished in the state by 2016, and yet, that year they faced no electoral consequences. I think it's likely that Whitmer wins but long term prospects in this state are not good for Democrats.


ah hofoid, you sly dog
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2018, 11:28:57 AM »

How are you going to call Dems out for being overconfident when you are the doing the same thing?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2018, 12:06:42 PM »

The “DEMS ARE PACKED INTO MILWAUKEE AND MADISON” thing is a myth.

Only 37% of Hillary’s vote came from Milwaukee and Dane combined. That means nearly two thirds of Hillary 2016 voters came from outside those two counties.

Rebecca Dallet only got 34.8% of her vote from those two counties in the State Supreme Court race this past spring, and actually won a majority of state legislative seats!

Great point 👍🏻
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