What is the oddest electoral map possible in 2020?

[Horatii]

What is the strangest or most unexpected electoral map for 2020? Who would the Democratic candidates be?

[President Johnson]

✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 377 EV. (52.72%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 161 EV. (45.25%)

[Karpatsky]

Quite strange and somewhat plausible:

Bullock/Harris 285
Trump/Pence 253
McMullin/Love 0

Anything is possible, of course.

[SingingAnalyst]

An excellent question! The potential for a truly "odd" map is perhaps not what it was in years past: Considering just the 4 elections 1964, 1972, 1976, and 1980, only one state (AZ) voted the same way all four times (plus DC). In the five elections 2000 - 2016, however, 37 states (plus DC) have voted the same way all five times. I'll try two scenarios:

Scenario 1:

Harris/Brown (D) 269
Trump/Pence (R) 269

Harris flips AZ, FL, and NE-2, while Trump flips NH. A tie.
This would be the first time in a long, long time (ever?) that AZ went D while both MI and OH went R, and I'm sure a lot of other firsts.

Scenario 2: Trump leaves office, for whatever reason, and is replaced by Pence. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) wins the 2020 GOP primary and selects Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) as her running mate. Meanwhile, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) wins the Dem primary (in a crowded field) and selects Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) as his running mate. Three significant minor parties emerge: Green, Libertarian, and a Reform/Constitution fusion party.

Manchin/Jones (D) 269
Scott/Collins (R) 269

The left-wing third party costs OR and WA for the Dems. For the first time since the 19th century, AL and MS vote differently (though both states are very close). In fact, most states are won with pluralities, not majorities, and no state reaches 60% for one party (DC still votes 81% Dem).

And again, a tie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possible

[SingingAnalyst]

Possible

Interesting. I have to wonder what circumstances (other than a 1976 time capsule) give rise to a Dem winning MO and OH, but not MI or OR.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, the only states that may not vote Democratic in a Democratic landslide in NV, NH, ME-2 and Iowa.  But, I made the map for fun. But, Kid Rock running against Gary Peters for Senate in 2020, like he almost did, can be 1 scenario and Jason Kander winning the governorship in 2020 as well.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Minnesota won't vote GOP

[CookieDamage]

312 vs. 220 vs. 6

[SingingAnalyst]

Minnesota won't vote GOP

This one's for you:

(Can you guess that I love making these maps?)

[twenty42]

An exact duplicate of the 2016 map, since there has never been a repeat map in American history.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Washington and Oregon voting for Trump are not plausible, even if he wins by a lot.

[Skill and Chance]

An exact duplicate of the 2016 map, since there has never been a repeat map in American history.

Washington won unanimously twice.

[SingingAnalyst]

Dem wins, 287-251

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

An exact duplicate of the 2016 map, since there has never been a repeat map in American history.

Washington won unanimously twice.

There were several states added to the union between Washington's first election and his second. This resulted in a different electoral map from 1788.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope this map happens

[MR DARK BRANDON]

[Horatii]

Donald Reagan does it again!  Donald personally gives Avenatti a discounted Mar-a-lago membership as thanks for his Independent run.  Democratic nominee Lori Swanson manages to hold on to her home state despite being plagued with scandals; her quip about ‘Make Vikings Great Again’ plays well in her state but does not play well elsewhere.

Trump would NEVER win Wisconsin, mark my words

[Proto]

The most unusual electoral map would feature John Bachtell as a third party candidate.

[morgankingsley]

The most unusual electoral map would be any involving john Delaney as the Democratic nominee

[McGarnagle]

John Hickenlooper (D-CO) / Roy Cooper (D-NC) 269 Electoral Votes, 48.7%
Tom Cotton (R-AR) / Kim Reynolds (R-IA) 269 Electoral Votes, 45.1%

Democrats win in the 2018 midterms, taking the House by a larger-than-expected margin and narrowly retaking the Senate. Trump is forced to resign on February 14, 2019 under threat of impeachment, as is Pence, both in an agreement that they will be spared criminal prosecution if they resign. Trump does so at noon on Valentine's Day, leaving office with a 35% approval rating.

Nancy Pelosi, in a surprise announcement at the end of 2018, declines to be House Speaker for a second time. Speaker of the House Adam Schiff becomes President, and announces he will only serve until January 20, 2021. Schiff appoints John Hickenlooper as his VP, who takes the office on February 24, 2019.

The Democratic primary does not go as expected, as several big names like Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren decline to run. Vice President Hickenlooper ends up winning the nomination against a smaller-than-anticipated field, promising to carry on roughly as another term for President Schiff and campaigning as a return to normalcy. Hickenlooper chooses Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as his running mate.

With Pence out of the running, Tom Cotton ends up running for and winning the Republican nomination and chooses Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa as his running mate. Cotton, noting that Trump is still popular among his base, promises to return to Trump's "uncompromising" style of governing.

Republicans do better than expected in 2020, having campaigned against the February 2019 resignations as a "blatant power grab by the Democrats with a disregard for the will of the people" and "The Valentine's Day massacre". However, they don't win any Hillary states, and the result is a 269-269 Electoral College tie, though Hickenlooper wins the popular vote by just over 3.5%. Many states, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia are decided by less than 1%. However, Maine's 2nd Congressional District swings back to Democrats, who win there by 3%.

The election goes to the House, as the result is President John Hickenlooper.

In the Senate, Vice President Kim Reynolds is the result. Reynolds is selected narrowly over Cooper, winning the votes of a few Trump/Cotton-state Democrats including Doug Jones, Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Manchin. With the first ever Coloradan President and first female Vice President, this begins an era defined by a political odd couple who often find themselves in disagreement, and a 2024 election pitting a POTUS against VP.

President Schiff leaves office with a 52% approval rating.

Presidents, 2017-2025
45. Donald Trump (R-NY) from January 20, 2017 to February 14, 2019
46. Adam Schiff (D-CA) from February 14, 2019 to January 20, 2021
47. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) from January 20, 2021 (eligible for re-election in 2024)

Vice Presidents, 2017-2025
48. Mike Pence (R-IN) from January 20, 2021 to February 14, 2019
(vacant) (February 14, 2019 to February 24, 2019)
49. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) from February 24, 2019 to January 20, 2021
50. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) from January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025

[SN2903]

I hope this map happens

It won't

[Hammy]

An exact duplicate of the 2016 map, since there has never been a repeat map in American history.

Washington won unanimously twice.

To be fair he's not wrong, since the US map itself was different in 1792 vs 1789.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Joe Manchin/Jon Tester (D)      54% - 393 EV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R)   44% - 145 EV