Polls: Democrats eroding GOP's turnout edge in midterms

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

A very interesting article about how GOP's long advantage in turnout is starting to fade.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/15/politico-poll-midterms-voter-turnout-778398

[junior chįmp]

I really cant put my finger on why GOP turnout is so bad without a black in the White House

[libertpaulian]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

[junior chįmp]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

Now your getting it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I really cant put my finger on why GOP turnout is so bad without a black in the White House

Dubya had a the female vote, due to the charismatic Laura Bush, until 2006, when he lost it due to Hurricane Katrina.

Trump has always struggled with the female vote, that's why it was so close in 2016. Pence does nothing to get females, Latinos and Blacks, and the GOP is trying to overturn Roe with Kavanaugh, spells a reelected Speaker Nancy Pelosi, again, since 2006.

[Zaybay]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

DING, DING, DING! We have a winner!

This wave will be larger, because of one thing that we have so far ignored, the undecided vote. In 2010 and 2014, the wave was actually a trickle. The Rs were up by around 4 and down by 2, respectively. But then, something happened, the undecided vote made a decision. They went overwhelmingly for the Republicans both times, amplifying their power, and we still suffer the consequences.

There are multiple reasons for this change. The Fall healthcare prices rising each time contributed, but it was also the Obama factor. A check was needed, and they delivered with a stop sign. But this time, the undecieded vote is likely to go for us, which is terrifying for the Republicans.

And for those of you who think, "Theres no proof of undecideds going one way or another", I point to the special elections and VA race.

VA: average: 47.7D/44.4R/7.9U

Result: 53.9/45.0/1.1L

Alabama average: 48.1R/45.9D/6.0U

Result: 50.0D/48.4R

And this doesnt even take into account how the undecideds moved drastically in races such as PA-18 and OH-12. These races had modest-large leads for the Rs, but then, it all came to a tossup.

And looking at current polling, the undecideds favoring Ds could turn this from a wave, to a tsunami.

[DrScholl]

The idea that Republicans ever had some traditional turnout advantage for midterm elections is wrong. The out party usually has an advantage in most midterm elections and Republicans had that advantage in 2010 and 2014 because there was a Democrat in the White House. 2010 was so big because Democrats held the Presidency and both houses of Congress plus a lot of state houses. Republicans are in the same position this year.

[KingSweden]

The idea that Republicans ever had some traditional turnout advantage for midterm elections is wrong. The out party usually has an advantage in most midterm elections and Republicans had that advantage in 2010 and 2014 because there was a Democrat in the White House. 2010 was so big because Democrats held the Presidency and both houses of Congress plus a lot of state houses. Republicans are in the same position this year.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Yank2133]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

Pretty much.

2016 has got everyone gun shy, but there is good chance we all look back at the election results and laugh about how conservative our estimates were.

[Virginiá]

Honestly, this article is kind of boring and doesn't really shed any new light on anything.

The idea that Republicans ever had some traditional turnout advantage for midterm elections is wrong. The out party usually has an advantage in most midterm elections and Republicans had that advantage in 2010 and 2014 because there was a Democrat in the White House. 2010 was so big because Democrats held the Presidency and both houses of Congress plus a lot of state houses. Republicans are in the same position this year.

I agree partly, but the coalitions really are suited for different cycles. Democrats have a lot of lower propensity voters that tend to turn out in presidential elections and the Republican base of old people turn out in basically every major election, no matter the year. They used to have a more educated base which added further but Democrats have largely poached that now.

538 did something on this, and it found that Republicans generally have an advantage, but in Democratic wave years, Democrats can essentially neutralize that advantge entirely, while Republican wave years result in large Republican over-performances that are more significant than what Democrats can muster:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/

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I think over the next ~20 years or so, Democrats could probably develop a midterm turnout advantage themselves as more upscale college educated white voters move to their party and left-leaning Millennials/gen x'ers get to the 40-55 age range and the GOP's aging base ages right out of the electorate.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

This has been my prediction for awhile.

[junior chįmp]

I really cant put my finger on why GOP turnout is so bad without a black in the White House

Dubya had a the female vote, due to the charismatic Laura Bush, until 2006, when he lost it due to Hurricane Katrina.

Trump has always struggled with the female vote, that's why it was so close in 2016. Pence does nothing to get females, Latinos and Blacks, and the GOP is trying to overturn Roe with Kavanaugh, spells a reelected Speaker Nancy Pelosi, again, since 2006.

This is the most insane thing I've ever read. Nobody wins or loses an election due to the charisma of their spouse or a hurricane.

[Xing]

I'm sure that the Republican "edge" in midterms is just as sturdy as the Democrats "edge" in presidential elections was in 2016.

[Doimper]

I'm sure that the Republican "edge" in midterms is just as sturdy as the Democrats "edge" in presidential elections was in 2016.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

DING, DING, DING! We have a winner!

This wave will be larger, because of one thing that we have so far ignored, the undecided vote. In 2010 and 2014, the wave was actually a trickle. The Rs were up by around 4 and down by 2, respectively. But then, something happened, the undecided vote made a decision. They went overwhelmingly for the Republicans both times, amplifying their power, and we still suffer the consequences.

There are multiple reasons for this change. The Fall healthcare prices rising each time contributed, but it was also the Obama factor. A check was needed, and they delivered with a stop sign. But this time, the undecieded vote is likely to go for us, which is terrifying for the Republicans.

And for those of you who think, "Theres no proof of undecideds going one way or another", I point to the special elections and VA race.

VA: average: 47.7D/44.4R/7.9U

Result: 53.9/45.0/1.1L

Alabama average: 48.1R/45.9D/6.0U

Result: 50.0D/48.4R

And this doesnt even take into account how the undecideds moved drastically in races such as PA-18 and OH-12. These races had modest-large leads for the Rs, but then, it all came to a tossup.

And looking at current polling, the undecideds favoring Ds could turn this from a wave, to a tsunami.

I think you may be on to a correct analysis.  Adding too it is Trump just will not shut up.   He just does not understand that he is enraging his opposition.

There are two things that could counter that.  This continued talk of socialism will drive a number of GOPers to vote.  Stupid statements like Cumo’s that America has never been great are not helpful either.

I also think we can make the Democrats pay for the actions of Antifa.

[Badger]

I really cant put my finger on why GOP turnout is so bad without a black in the White House

Dubya had a the female vote, due to the charismatic Laura Bush, until 2006, when he lost it due to Hurricane Katrina.

Trump has always struggled with the female vote, that's why it was so close in 2016. Pence does nothing to get females, Latinos and Blacks, and the GOP is trying to overturn Roe with Kavanaugh, spells a reelected Speaker Nancy Pelosi, again, since 2006.

This is the most insane thing I've ever read. Nobody wins or loses an election due to the charisma of their spouse or a hurricane.

Well, he's half right in that Katrina did NOT help W's (or the GOP's) popularity.

[Brittain33]

Swapping out college-educated voters for non-college-educated voters will have a predictable effect on Republican turnout reliability.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm sure that the Republican "edge" in midterms is just as sturdy as the Democrats "edge" in presidential elections was in 2016.

Problem is, Hillary won by 3 million and 2 points. That's a decent edge considering everything else.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I really cant put my finger on why GOP turnout is so bad without a black in the White House

Yea, the no deficits for blacks mantra has lost its edge post Obama.

[KingSweden]

I wonder if our hand-wringing over polls and primary turnout is all for naught, and we're actually underestimating just how much of a blue wave is coming.

DING, DING, DING! We have a winner!

This wave will be larger, because of one thing that we have so far ignored, the undecided vote. In 2010 and 2014, the wave was actually a trickle. The Rs were up by around 4 and down by 2, respectively. But then, something happened, the undecided vote made a decision. They went overwhelmingly for the Republicans both times, amplifying their power, and we still suffer the consequences.

There are multiple reasons for this change. The Fall healthcare prices rising each time contributed, but it was also the Obama factor. A check was needed, and they delivered with a stop sign. But this time, the undecieded vote is likely to go for us, which is terrifying for the Republicans.

And for those of you who think, "Theres no proof of undecideds going one way or another", I point to the special elections and VA race.

VA: average: 47.7D/44.4R/7.9U

Result: 53.9/45.0/1.1L

Alabama average: 48.1R/45.9D/6.0U

Result: 50.0D/48.4R

And this doesnt even take into account how the undecideds moved drastically in races such as PA-18 and OH-12. These races had modest-large leads for the Rs, but then, it all came to a tossup.

And looking at current polling, the undecideds favoring Ds could turn this from a wave, to a tsunami.

I think you may be on to a correct analysis.  Adding too it is Trump just will not shut up.   He just does not understand that he is enraging his opposition.

There are two things that could counter that.  This continued talk of socialism will drive a number of GOPers to vote.  Stupid statements like Cumo’s that America has never been great are not helpful either.

I also think we can make the Democrats pay for the actions of Antifa.

Antifa is SO 2017