Rate New Hampshire in 2020

[Technocracy Timmy]

Gee I wonder who the sole person to vote safe D was.

[Xing]

Pure Tossup


I’m also going to make this Bold Prediction, NH will vote to the right of MI in 2020

There would be nothing strange about that. I wouldn't even be that surprised if it also voted to the right of...

(trigger warning for 95% of Atlas)

Wisconsin I know, I know, treachery, how could anyone suggest such a thing? That's almost as crazy as thinking Nevada could vote to the left of Minnesota!

Anyway, I'll say Lean D. His popularity ratings leave a bit to be desired there, but the same can be said for other states widely regarded as swing states.

[Mr. Illini]

Lean D. If he didn't win it in 16, he won't in 20.

[Xing]

There is no way NH is going to vote to the right of MI or WI, lol. If those two states trend strongly away from Trump, there is zero reason to believe NH is going to trend in the opposite direction for some reason, unless you have learned nothing from the "muh NV and NH are the only path for Trump to get to 270" nonsense we heard in 2016.

I wouldn't even be that surprised if it also voted to the left of...

(trigger warning for 95% of Atlas)

Wisconsin

Sure, we agree on that.

Alright, good catch. But it could be the case that both WI/MI swing away from Trump by more than New Hampshire does (I thought NH was super inelastic ). It's not like NH voted that far to the left of either in 2016. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but I wouldn't rule it out, especially if Democrats nominate someone with strength in the Midwest.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Much to MTTreasurer's chagrin, I am voting tossup.

[RINO Tom]

Lean D. If he didn't win it in 16, he won't in 20.

Pretty much this.  Additionally, the GOP's voter base in NH is heavily reliant on the exact types of voters Trump is alienating.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Lean D. If he didn't win it in 16, he won't in 20.

Pretty much this.  Additionally, the GOP's voter base in NH is heavily reliant on the exact types of voters Trump most of the Party apparatus especially the national base is alienating.

[RINO Tom]

Lean D. If he didn't win it in 16, he won't in 20.

Pretty much this.  Additionally, the GOP's voter base in NH is heavily reliant on the exact types of voters Trump most of the Party apparatus especially the national base is alienating.

Fine, but especially Trump, which is the subject of this thread.

[mgop]

trump can bring that rurals from western nh to vote republican, suburbs there already love him

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

trump can bring that rurals from western nh to vote republican, suburbs there already love him

Not at all.

[Del Tachi]

Tilt D with Shaheen on the ballot

If Shaheen wasn't on the ballot, it could be vulnerable, but she is.

That's not how coattails work.  The top of the ticket will be driving the bottom.  No one's going to go out-of-there way to pull a lever for Shaheen who wasn't already motivated to vote for the Dem nominee.  Lower-level races are more influenced by strict partisans.

Anyway, NH is a pure tossup.

[OneJ]

Lean D at the moment.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Likely D, unless third party strength is the same as last time.

[TrumpBritt24]

Likely D.

Like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, NH will return to normalcy and go blue as typical.

[Deleted User #4049]

Lean D.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup

[Big Abraham]

Pure tossup

[pbrower2a]

Tossup in a competitive election.

Reasonable assessment -- with the caveat that the election be competitive. In a 50-50 election, Trump would have won New Hampshire.

Dubya barely won New Hampshire, and it could have been the difference between Gore and Dubya that year. Kerry somehow won it in 2004 (being from the neighboring state?). New Hampshire went by high single-digits in 2008 but was close to being the tipping-point state. In 2012 it was close to Obama's margin of victory. Hillary Clinton barely won the state despite winning the vote that did not matter.

It is easy to assume that because the last three Presidents have been  re-elected with electoral maps similar to those with which they won that we can reasonably expect much the same in 2020. All three Presidents convinced 90-95% of those who voted for them that their vote was the right one and peeled little support from those who voted otherwise in their first Presidential election. Nationwide and state polling suggest otherwise this time. Approval for the President has been consistently below what is usual for a President having a good chance of being re-elected at similar stages of his Presidency (about 45% approval, which is about what Obama had... and as the record shows, needed it) until the government shutdown, which has cut further into the President's approval rating.

As someone who cares about this country and humanity I do not want to see President Trump's approval sink any lower. Such means that the economy has gone into recession -- or perhaps hundreds of thousands of people are dying in Seoul from a missile attack from North Korea.

His approval ratings will likely recover a little from the abysmal levels that he has reached in January 2019 as the federal shutdown comes to an end. But not much. A poll from this week shows that fewer than 40% of New Hampshire voters intend to vote for President Trump. Such is consistent with the President losing like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980 -- if for very different reasons.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean D because of the large white liberal electorate which will be very mobilised. (You can probaly classify 40% of the electorate in NH as white liberals and those people will be fired-up.)