Sabato's Crystal Ball: The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound

[Politician]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-2018-ratings-changes-abound/

Georgia: Likely R->Lean R
Maine: Lean D->Tossup
Maryland: Lean R->Likely R
Minnesota: Tossup->Lean D
Oregon: Likely D->Lean D
Wisconsin: Lean R->Tossup

Also:
ME-2: Lean R->Tossup
WI-1: Tossup->Lean R

[smoltchanov]

All make sense, based on recent polls and primary results.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

[KingSweden]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

[libertpaulian]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CT still a tossup lol

Sabato must have a CT Republican on his staff.

[libertpaulian]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

[Skye]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

Black voters will come home in the end and make the race closer.

As for the fact that they'll deliver Jealous a win... that remains to be seen. For now the race is clearly in Hogan's favor, and this rating reflects that.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

And the Democratic primary was closer to unanimous than the Republican primary.

[Alabama_Indy10]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

You are insane

[Rookie Yinzer]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

lol

[Zaybay]

None of the rating changes made towards the Republicans make any sense.

At minimum Maryland does

Black voters will come home in the end and decide the race for Jealous.

lol

No, hes correct, sort of. If Jealous wins 90% of the Black vote, he wins the election. Of course, this is assuming for 2014 turnout and Jealous getting 35% of the White vote.

[IceSpear]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

[Jeppe]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

[Politician]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

Kenosha and Racine are in this district.

[Jeppe]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

Kenosha and Racine are in this district.

Yeah, but Waukesha county is crucial.

[Zaybay]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

There is no way to tell who is gonna win this race. It could be Paul Ryan's twin, but Randy has raised a ton of funding and D turnout was larger than the R turnout. I would wait for some polling before making any assumptions.

Also, there is Blue-Collar DNA in the district, like Racine and Kenosha.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats received more votes in the primary in WI-01 than Republicans did, and the Democratic primary was closer to being unanimous than the Republican primary.

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

Kenosha and Racine are in this district.

Yeah, but Waukesha county is crucial.

Almost all of Waukesha is in WI-05. Only a tiny sliver is in WI-01.

[Gass3268]

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

There is no way to tell who is gonna win this race. It could be Paul Ryan's twin, but Randy has raised a ton of funding and D turnout was larger than the R turnout. I would wait for some polling before making any assumptions.

Also, there is Blue-Collar DNA in the district, like Racine and Kenosha.

Lean R is fair, but it's false to say that there is no Blue-Collar DNA in this district. Janesville, Kenosha, and Racine all fit that bill. Having that third of Waukesha County is such a drag on this district and probably hill to high to climb for Byrce.

A district drawn fairly without Waukesha County and the remainder of Rock County (like it was primary to 2002) would probably be Lean D now.

[Gass3268]

Democrats received more votes in the primary in WI-01 than Republicans did, and the Democratic primary was closer to being unanimous than the Republican primary.

How the hell is WI-1 moved to "Lean R" when more Dems showed up?!

A couple things.

1) Dems nominated the deadbeat dad. Even if Bryce eventually gains traction, Ryan and his mini me dumping millions of dollars into deadbeat dad ads will probably put a stop to it real quick.

2) Republicans carried this district even in the Supreme Court race that they recently lost by 12 points.

I actually think lean R is generous for the Democrats. I have it at safe R.

But aside from that, I actually shockingly agree on most of these. Probably jumping the gun on MD and OR considering it's still pretty early though. Both of the ME races are well overdue, as is WI and GA. MN was never a toss up (muh Pawlenty lol.)

This district doesn’t have the blue-collar DNA that Bryce is hoping to appeal to. The Republican base is primarily wealthy suburbanites in Waukesha & Milwaukee county.

Kenosha and Racine are in this district.

Yeah, but Waukesha county is crucial.

Almost all of Waukesha is in WI-05. Only a tiny sliver is in WI-01.

About 1/3rd of Waukesha is in WI-01.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these changes doesn't really change much, WI, MI, PA, ME, NM, IL are gone for the GOP

[IceSpear]

Screnock won WI-01, Walker will certainly win it, and even Vukmir might win it. Give that, it seems very unlikely that a deeply flawed Democrat like Bryce could carry it against a Paul Ryan clone. Especially since Ryan is somehow not unpopular in Wisconsin as a whole (last poll I saw had him with an evenly split approval rating), which I'd assume means he's on fairly solid ground in his home district.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Screnock won WI-01, Walker will certainly win it, and even Vukmir might win it. Give that, it seems very unlikely that a deeply flawed Democrat like Bryce could carry it against a Paul Ryan clone. Especially since Ryan is somehow not unpopular in Wisconsin as a whole (last poll I saw had him with an evenly split approval rating), which I'd assume means he's on fairly solid ground in his home district.

Vukmir will definitely lose it. Randy Bryce is not a flawed candidate. Democrats just outvoted Republicans in the primary.

[IceSpear]

Screnock won WI-01, Walker will certainly win it, and even Vukmir might win it. Give that, it seems very unlikely that a deeply flawed Democrat like Bryce could carry it against a Paul Ryan clone. Especially since Ryan is somehow not unpopular in Wisconsin as a whole (last poll I saw had him with an evenly split approval rating), which I'd assume means he's on fairly solid ground in his home district.

Vukmir will definitely lose it. Randy Bryce is not a flawed candidate. Democrats just outvoted Republicans in the primary.

That's not a guarantee, anyone who missed child support payments is automatically a flawed candidate, and who cares? Are the Indiana and North Dakota Senate races safe R because Republicans got far more votes? Are Dems favored in WV-01 and WV-02 because they got more votes?