2020 Senate election: process and result

[OBD]

                                 Analysis Oregon Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 10 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 19 May 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Kurt Schrader- U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Jeff Merkley- incumbent Senator
   2)Suzanne Bunamici- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Knute Buehler- incumbent Governor
2.Declined:
    Greg Walden- U.S. Representative

Jeff Merkley approval rating
Approve: 1) 54%; 2) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 32%; 2) 37%
Don't know: 1) 14%; 2) 11%
1)January 2019
2)July 2019

General election polling
K.Schrader---K.Buehler---???            Date
         42                  45         13      03/08-16/08
         44                  44         12      12/08-23/08
         44                  45         11      04/09-14/09
         45                  44         11      18/10-27/10
         46                  45          9       25/10-04/11
         45                  45         10      08/11-17/11
         45                  46          9       13/11-20/11
         46                  46          8       23/11-30/11
         45                  46          9       04/12-17/12
         47                  45          8       10/12-20/12
         46                  45          9       12/12-19/12
         47                  44          9       15/12-30/12
         46                  46          8       02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Jeff Merkley retires to run for president. After a sensational victory of Knute Buehler in 2018, he became a popular governor. This year he decided to run for the Senate, which instantly made the race as Tossup

Interesting...

[😥]

                                 Analysis Rhode Island Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 24 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 8 September 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Jack Reed- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)David Cicilline- U.S. Representative
   2)James Langevin- U.S. Representative
  
Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Mark Zaccaria- 2014 nominee
2.Declined:
   1)Allan Fung- incumbent Governor
   2)Ronald Machtley- former U.S. Representative

Jack Reed approval rating
Approve: 1) 55%; 2) 56%
Dissapprove: 1) 30%; 2) 31%
Don't know: 1) 15%; 2) 13%
1)January 2019
2)July 2019

General election polling
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe D


Jack Reed was safe. Lacking a strong candidate, a presidential year-all this was against the GOP

[😥]

                                  Analysis South Carolina Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 9 June 2020
Candidates filing dealdine: 29 March 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Mandy Powers Norrell- state Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Jim Clyburn- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Lindsey Graham- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Nikki Haley- former Governor, UN Ambassador
   2)Henry McMaster- incumbent Governor
   3)Jeff Duncan- U.S. Representative

Lindsey Graham approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%
Don't know: 2) 8%

General election polling
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R


Lindsey Graham was safe. Lacking a strong candidate in primary and in general election, a presidential year-all this was against the DP

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                                  Analysis South Dakota Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 24 March 2020
 
Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   Kevin Artz- businessman

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Mike Rounds- incumbent Senator

Mike Rounds approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%
Don't know: 1) 11%
1)April 2019

General election polling
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R


Mike Rounds was safe. Lacking a strong candidate, a presidential year-all this was against the DP

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                                  Analysis Tennessee Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 April 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 6 August 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Andy Berke- Mayor of Chattonooga
   2)Lincoln Davis- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Karl Dean- former Mayor of Nashwille, 2018 gubernatorial nominee
   2)Jim Cooper- U.S. Representative
   3)Steve Cohen- U.S. Representative
Democratic primary polling
A.Berke---L.Davis---???       Date
      54             30       16    18/11-24/11
      56             39       15    01/12-10/12

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Bill Haslam- former Governor
   2)Dianne Black- former U.S. Representative, 2018 gubernatorial candidate
   3)Stephen Fincher- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Lamar Alexander- incumbent Senator
   2)Marsha Blackburn- former U.S. Representative, 2018 senatorial nominee
   3)Scott DesJarlais- U.S. Representative
Republican primary polling
B.Haslam---D.Black---S.Fincher---???          Date
        51              21               20          8      18/11-24/11
        52              20               22          6      10/12-22/12

Lamar Alexander approval rating
Approve: 1) 56%; 2) 57%; 3) 56%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%; 2) 37%; 3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 6%; 3) 6%

General election polling
B.Haslam---A.Berke---???        Date
        54              38         8    12/09-23/09
        55              37         8    04/10-14/10
        55              38         7    12/10-28/10  
        56              37         7    02/01-13/01

D.Black---A.Berke---???
      49             44        7        12/09-23/09
      48             45        7        12/10-28/10
 
S.Fincher---A.Berke---???    
        51             42          7    12/09-23/09
        52             43          5    12/10-28/10
        50             43          7    02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Likely R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Likely R
  

Lamar Alexander retires. The GOP field was overcrowded, but the only real candidate was formerly popular Governor Bill Haslam. The place was safe for GOP

[😥]

                                  Analysis Texas Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 3 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 8 December 2019

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Julian Castro- former U.S. HUD Secretary, former Mayor of San Antonio
2.Declined:
   1)Joaquin Castro- U.S. Representative
   2)Beto O'Rourke- former U.S. Representative, 2018 nominee
   3)Henry Cuellar- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    John Cornyn- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Gregg Abbott- incumbent Governor
   2)Michael McCaul- U.S. Representative
   3)Dan Patrick- incumbent Lieutenant Governor

John Cornyn approval rating
Approve: 1) 43%; 2) 44%
Dissapprove: 1) 44%; 2) 44%
Don't know: 1) 13%; 2) 12%

General election polling
J.Cornyn---J.Castro---???           Date
       41               46        13     02/02-18/02 (D-Castro)
       43               47        10     12/03-23/03 (D-Castro)
       50               42         8      18/09-23/09
       50               42         8      20/09-29/09
       49               42         9      02/10-13/10
       48               42        10     15/10-23/10
       49               43         8      05/11-09/11
       49               43         8      13/11-10/12
       48               43         9      02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Likely R
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Lean R


After very close results in 2018, the Democrats hoped with a strong candidate in the face of Julian Castro to win this Senate place.
And polls showed each passing day a closer race

[😥]

                                  Analysis Virginia Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 9 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 26 March 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Mark Warner- incumbent Senator
   2)Donald McEachin- U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Ralph Northam- incumbent Governor
   2)Terry McAuliffe- former Governor
   3)Don Beyer- U.S. Representative
Democratic primary polling
M.Warner---D.McEachin---???         Date
        60                   24           16    09/10-21/10
        61                   25           14    12/12-23/12

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Corey Stewart- 2018 nominee
2.Potential:
     Ed Gillespie- 2017 gubernatirial nominee, 2014 nominee, former RNC chairman
3.Declined:
   1)Scott Taylor- former U.S. Representative
   2)Dave Brat- former U.S. Representative

Mark Warner approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%; 2) 52%
Dissapprove: 1) 38%; 2) 37%
Don't know: 1) 10%; 2) 11%
1)January 2019
2)May 2019

General election polling
M.Warner---C.Stewart---???       Date
        61                30          9      03/11-18/11
        59                29         12     02/01-13/01
No polls with other candidates

Rating:
Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Likely D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Likely D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Likely D


The current popular Democratic senator, Mark Warner, was considered safe, despite challenging him in the primary of Donald McEachin

[😥]

Is this timeline interesting?
This is very important to me
Please answer

[Huey Long is a Republican]

It's quite curious. Will the results come next?

[😥]

It's quite curious. Will the results come next?

Next will be the campaign, the results of the primaries and the results of the elections, I think it will be somewhere in 3 weeks or a month, maybe a little longer. After this, I plan to do likewise for the Senate elections of 2022

[Huey Long is a Republican]

It's quite curious. Will the results come next?

Next will be the campaign, the results of the primaries and the results of the elections, I think it will be somewhere in 3 weeks or a month, maybe a little longer. After this, I plan to do likewise for the Senate elections of 2022

alright. I'll be watching with pleasure.

[😥]

I just added a poll "Who should win the presidential election in 2020?". I need the results of this poll because I'm going to do "2022 Senate elections: process and results". And accordingly, I need to know this midterm of which President

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I threw in my vote but knowing atlas, be prepared for a Dem bomb.

[😥]

I threw in my vote but knowing atlas, be prepared for a Dem bomb.

I would like to win Donald Trump for a democratic tsunami in 2022, but the decisive word for you

[JoeyOCanada]

This is extremely interesting! It's actually teaching me quite a bit about the Senate

[😥]

                                  Analysis West Virginia Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 12 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 24 January 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential:
    Carte Goodwin- former U.S. Senator
3.Declined:
   1)Booth Goodwin- former Attorney for Southern District of WV
   2)Earl Ray Tomblin- former Governor
   3)Jeff Kessler- former Minority Leader of state Senate
   4)Richard Ojeda- U.S. Representative (running for Governor)

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Shelley Moore Capito- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1)Evan Jenkins- former U.S. Representative (running for WV-3)
   2)Jim Justice- incumbent Governor (running for reelection)
   3)Bill Cole- former President of state Senate

Shelley Moore Capito approval rating
Approve: 1) 56%; 2) 58%
Dissapprove: 1) 35%; 2) 34%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 8%

General election polling
S.Moore Capito---C.Goodwin---???          Date
             62                       29           9      08/09-17/09
             63                       29           8      19/10-12/11
             63                       29           8      02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Likely R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Likely R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R


The seat was safe. Shelley Moore Capito was popular, almost all Democrats declined to run. The only one considering the possibility was former Senator Carte Goodwin, but only 9 days left until the deadline

[😥]

                                  Analysis Wyoming Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 18 August 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 29 May 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Potential: none
3.Declined:
    Dave Freudenthal- former Governor
  
Libertarian Party
1.Declared:
    Joe Porambo- 2018 nominee

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Mike Enzi- incumbent Senator
   2)Liz Cheney- U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Mark Gordon- incumbent Governor
   2)Matt Mead- former Governor
No polls

Mike Enzi approval rating
Approve: 1) 47%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%
Don't know: 1) 13%

General election polling
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R

The seat was safe for GOP. The only question was: "Who wins Republican primary?"

[😥]

2018 Gubernatorial election results

D gain: AZ, FL, GA, IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NV, NM, OH, OK, WI
R gain: AK, OR, RI

1) Arizona
David Garcia (D) 48,3%
Doug Ducey (R) inc. 48,1%
2) Florida
Andrew Gillum (D) 48,3%
Ron DeSantis (R) 48,15%
3) Georgia
Stacey Abrams (D) 50,1%
Brian Kemp (R) 48,4%
4) Illinois
J.B. Pritzker (D) 45,4%
Bruce Rauner (R) inc. 39,8%
5) Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D) 47,3%
Kim Reynolds (R) inc. 46,4%
6) Kansas
Laura Kelly (D) 41,4%
Kris Kobach (R) 40,9%
Greg Orman (I) 16,9%
7) Maine
Janet Mills (D) 45,21%
Shawn Moody (R) 45,19%
Tery Hayes (I) 9,6%
Michigan
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 52,6%
Bill Schuette (R) 43,9%
9) Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D) 46,72%
Adam Laxalt (R) 46,67%
10) New Mexico
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 52,7%
Steve Pearce (R) 44,1%
11) Ohio
Richard Cordray (D) 49,1%
Mike DeWine (R) 48,0%
12) Oklahoma
Drew Edmundson (D) 50,2%
Kevin Stitt (R) 48,6%
13) Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D) 51,1%
Scott Walker (R) inc. 47,4%
14) Alaska
Mike Dunleavy (R) 34,3%
Bill Walker (I) inc. 33,1%
Mark Begich (D) 30,6%
15) Oregon
Knute Buehler (R) 49,2%
Kate Brown (D) inc. 48,6%
16) Rhode Island
Allan Fung (R) 47,2%
Gina Raimondo (D) inc. 45,4%

For objective reasons, I just changed the results of the Governor's race in Iowa (I am currently working on "2022 Senate elections: process and results", where I need a Democratic governor in Iowa).
Thanks for understanding

[😥]

                                  Analysis Arizona Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 27 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 25 August 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1)Ruben Gallego- U.S. Representative
   2)Ann Kirkpatrick- U.S. Representative, 2016 nominee
   3)Matt Heinz- former state Representative
2.Potential:
    Greg Stanton- U.S. Representative, former Mayor of Phoenix
3.Declined:
   1)David Garcia- incumbent Governor
   2)Steve Farley- state Senator, 2018 gubernatorial candidate
Democratic primary polling
R.Gallego---A.Kirkpatrick---M.Heinz---???        Date
       43                    28                  22         7      18/11-24/11
       44                    27                  21         8      13/12-21/12
       43                    27                  22         8      24/12-05/01

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Michele Reagan- incumbent Secretary of State
   2)Debbie Lesko- U.S. Representative
   3)Marta McSally- former U.S. Representative, 2018 nominee
   4)Ben Quayle- former U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1)Cindy McCain- incumbent Senator, widow of John McCain
   2)Meghan McCain- daughter of John McCain
   3)Jan Brewer- former Governor
   4)Jeff Flake- former Senator
Republican primary polling
M.Reagan---D.Lesko---M.McSally---B.Quayle---???         Date
         22              24                19                 23         12     11/11-20/11
         24              19                21                 22         14     13/12-21/12
         24              22                19                 22         14     24/12-05/01
         22              24                22                 20         12     02/01-13/01

No approval rating of incumbent Senator

General election polling
R.Gallego---M.Reagan---???        Date       R.Gallego---D.Lesko---???
        50                 44          6    11/11-20/11       49               45         6
        49                 44          7    18/11-24/11       49               44         7
        50                 43          7    24/12-05/01       50               44         6
        49                 44          7    02/01-13/01       50               44         6

Gallego---McSally---???           Date          Gallego---Quayle---???
     46             46          8      11/11-20/11        53            39         8
     45             48          7      18/11-24/11        55            38         7
     45             49          6      24/12-05/01        55            37         8
     44             49          7      02/01-13/01        56            37         7

Stanton---Reagan---???          Date           Stanton---Lesko---???
     51              43         6      11/11-20/11         50           44        6
     49              44         7      02/01-13/01         49           44        7

No polls with other candidates


Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

Opinion polls showed that Ruben Gallego wins over all GOP candidates, except Marta McSally. But her chances of winning the primers GOP are quite small

[😥]

24th January 2020
Breaking news: Carte Goodwin declined to run

Today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. Carte Goodwin declined to run. So, DP remained without a candidate in West Virginia

[😥]

28th January 2020
Breaking news: Andy Beshear declined to run

Today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. Andy Beshear declined to run.So, in Kentucky, 2 candidates from the DP:
1) Alison Lungergan Grimes
2) Crit Luallen

[Politician]

Capito wouldn't be unopposed. At the least, a random some dude would run against her.

[😥]

Capito wouldn't be unopposed. At the least, a random some dude would run against her.

Well, I took it into consideration

29th January
Paula Jean Swearengen launches a write-in campaign for the Senate in West Virginia

[😥]

28th January 2020
Breaking news: Martha Roby declined to run

Today, Martha Roby declined to run. Instead, she said she would run again to the House of Representatives. So, GOP has 4 candidates in Alabama:
  1) Robert Aderholt
  2) Bradley Byrne
  3) Luther Strange
  4) Bobby Bright

[😥]

15th February 2020
Breaking news: Brad Ashford declined to run

Today, Brad Ashford declined to run. Also, today is the last day of the opportunity to submit an application. So, DP remained without a candidate in Nebraska