2020 Senate election: process and result

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                                 Senate election 2020
                               Short analysis of all races
15th January 2020

1)Alabama: DEM D.Jones,R.Woodfin vs REP L.Strange, B.Byrne, R.Aderholt, B.Bright
Rating: Tilt R
Incumbent: Doug Jones (D), running
2)Alaska: DEM B.Mallott vs REP D.Sullivan
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Dan Sullivan (R), running
3)Arkansas: DEM M.Beebe vs REP T.Cotton
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Tom Cotton (R), running
4)Colorado: DEM M.Udall, C.Kennedy, D.Primavera vs REP C.Gardner
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R), running
5)Delaware: DEM C.Coons vs REP R. De La Fuenta
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Chris Coons (D), running
6)Georgia: DEM T.Tomlinson, H.Johnson vs REP D.Perdue, K.Handel, B.Kemp
Rating: Tilt R
Incumbent: David Perdue (R), running
7)Idaho: DEM M.Erpelding vs REP R.Labrador, B.Little
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Jim Risch (R), retiring
8)Illinois: DEM D.Durbin vs REP A.Kinzinger
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: D.Durbin (D), running
9)Iowa: DEM T.Vilsack vs REP J.Ernst
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Joni Ernst (R), running
10)Kansas: DEM D.Moore vs REP K.Kobach, L.Jenkins, S.Brownback, R.Estes
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Pat Roberts (R), retiring
11)Kentucky: DEM A.L.Grimes, C.Luallen vs REP M.McConnell, M.Bevin
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R), running
12)Louisiana: DEM Mitch Landrieu vs REP B.Cassidy
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Bill Cassidy (R), running
13)Maine: DEM T.Jackson, M.Eves vs REP S.Collins, B.Poliquin
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Susan Collins (R), running
14)Massachusetts: DEM N.Tsongas, J.Kennedy III vs REP S.Brown, C.Baker
Rating: Tilt D
Incumbent: Ed Markey (D), retiring
15)Michigan: DEM G.Peters vs REP J.Amash, D.Trott
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Gary Peters (D), running
16)Minnesota: DEM T.Smith, K.Ellison vs REP N.Coleman, M.Bachmann
Rating: Lean D
Incumbent: Tina Smith (D), running
17)Mississippi: DEM M.Espy, H.Sherman vs REP C.Hyde-Smith
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), running
18)Montana: DEM B.Schweitzer vs REP S.Daines
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Steve Daines (R), running
19)Nebraska: DEM B.Ashford vs REP B.Sasse
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Ben Sasse (R), running
20)New Hampshire: DEM C.Shea-Porter vs REP K.Ayotte
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (D), retiring
21)New Jersey: DEM C.Booker vs REP C.Christie
Rating: Lean D
Incumbent: Cory Booker (D), running
22)New Mexico: DEM T.Udall vs REP C.Brandt
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Tom Udall (D), running
23)North Carolina: DEM J.Jackson, A.Foxx vs REP T.Tillis
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R), running
24)Oklahoma: DEM M.Blancett, C.Walke vs REP S.Russell, S.Pruitt
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent:Jim Inhofe (R), retiring
25)Oregon: DEM K.Schrader vs REP K.Buehler
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent:Jeff Merkley (D), retiring
26)Rhode Island: DEM J.Reed vs REP M.Zaccaria
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Jack Reed (D), running
27)South Carolina: DEM M.P.Norrell vs REP L.Graham
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Lindsey Graham (R), running
28)South Dakota: DEM K.Artz vs REP M.Rounds
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Mike Rounds (R), running
29)Tennessee: DEM A.Berke, L.Davis vs REP B.Haslam, D.Black, S.Fincher
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Lamar Alexander (R), retiring
30)Texas: DEM Julian Castro vs REP J.Cornyn
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: John Cornyn (R), running
31)Virginia: DEM M.Warner, D.McEahin vs REP C.Stewart
Rating: Likely D
Incumbent: Mark Warner (D), running
32)West Virginia: DEM C.Goodwin vs REP S.M.Capito
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito (R), running
33)Wyoming: LIB J.Porambo vs REP M.Enzi, L.Cheney
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Mike Enzi (R), running

1)Arizona-special: John McCain died in April 2019, Governor appointed his wife, Cindy McCain, for his seat.
DEM R.Gallego, A.Kirkpatrick, M.Heinz vs REP M.Reagan, M.McSally, B.Quayle, D.Lesko
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Cindy McCain (R), retiring




After a short analysis of all the races that I have already published will be published detailed analysis of each race (the first one will be published today, I am going to publish them every day or every other day). After that, the chronology of events, results of primaries will be described. And finally, the results of the general election

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                                  Analysis Alabama Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary:2th June
Candidate filing deadline: 6th February


Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    1) Doug Jones- Senator since 2018
    2) Randall Woodfin- Mayor of Birmingham since 2017
2.Declined:
    1)Terri Sewell- U.S.Representative (endorsed Jones)
    2)Walt Maddox-2018 Gov. nominee (running for House, endorsed Jones)

Polling Democraric primary                                       Date                  
  Doug Jones -------- Randall Woodfin ------???      
       70                              23                      7       17/12-05/01
       76                              18                      6       23/12-29/12
       75                              21                      4       02/01-13/01

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    1) Luther Strange- Senator 2017-2018
    2) Bradley Byrne- U.S. Representative
    3) Robert Aderholt- U.S. Representative
    4) Bobby Bright- former U.S. Representative (Democraric until 2018)
2.Potential:
    1) Martha Roby- U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
    1) Mo Brooks- U.S. Representative, 2017 candidate (endorsed Byrne)
    2) Kay Ivey-incumbent Governor (endorsed Strange)

Polling Republican primary                                               Date
L.Strange---B.Byrne---R.Aderholt---B.Bright---???
        21              26            25                  16         12      17/12-05/01
        24              23             26                 17        10        21/12-31/12
        22              26            26                  16         10        23/12-29/12
        21              27            26                  15        11      02/01-13/01


Doug Jones approval rating
Approve: 1) 58%;  2)55%;  3)56%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%;  2)39%;  3)38%
Don't know: 1) 5%;  2)6%;  3)6%


General election polling with different candidate                              Date

1)D.Jones---L.Strange-???                   2)D.Jones-B.Byrne-???    
        47            45            8                               46        48        6      23/12-29/12
       48             45            7                               47        49        4      02/01-13/01
 
3)D.Jones---R.Aderholt-???                 4)D.Jones-B.Bright-???  
         45           48          7                                53         44         3    23/12-29/12
         45           47          8                                52         44         4    02/01-13/01
5)R.Woodfin-L.Strange-???                 6)R.Woodfin-B.Byrne-???    
          40             52        8                               40         53          7    23/12-29/12
          39             53        8                               40         52         8    02/01-13/01

7)R.Woodfin-R.Aderholt-???               8)R.Woodfin-B.Bright-???
           37            54       9                            43             50            7     23/12-29/12
           37            56       7                            44              49            7     02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Tilt R
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Lean R
CNN: Tilt R
RCP: Lean R
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup      

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                               Analysis Alaska Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 18 September 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 1 June 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Byron Mallott- former Lieutenant Governor
2.Declined:
    Mark Begich- former Senator
  
Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Dan Sullivan- incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
    1) Joe Miller- 2010 nominee, 2014 candidate
    2) Sarah Palin- former Governor

Dan Sullivan approval rating
Approve: 1) 46%; 2) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 49%; 2) 50%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 4%
1)July 2019
2)December 2019

General election polling                 Date
D.Sullivan --- B.Mallott ---???
        46                  44           10          27/11-06/12
        45                  44           11          02/12-10/12
        47                  46            7           03/12-25/12
        46                  46            8           04/12-06/12
        45                  48            8           17/12-26/12
        49                  47            4           02/01-13/01
        47                  43           10          09/01-12/01

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Lean R



Byron Mallott announced his candidacy in April 2019, he was able to receive support from not only all Democrats, but also most moderate Republicans, including John Kasich, Charlie Baker, John Huntsman Jr. etc.

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                                Analysis Arkansas Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 20 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 2 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Mike Beebe- former Governor
2.Declined:
    1) Mark Pryor- former Senator
    2) Mike Ross- former U.S. Representative

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Tom Cotton- incumbent Senator
2.Potential:
    Asa Hutchinson- incumbent Governor
3.Declined:
    1) Rick Crawford- U.S. Representative
    2) French Hill- U.S. Representative

Tom Cotton approval rating
Approve: 1) 45%; 2) 43%; 3) 45%; 4) 44%
Dissapprove: 1) 50%; 2) 51%; 3) 51%; 4) 52%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 4%; 4) 4%
1)September 2019
2)October 2019
3)December 2019
4)January 2020

                General election

Although even before the fall of 2019, the most vulnerable senator GOP was considered Cory Gardner from Colorado, but his approval ratings began to grow rapidly, as well as the refusal of John Hickenlooper to flee it. The most vulnerable senator GOP was Tom Cotton from Arkansas, where his approval ratings fell sharply, and the former popular Governor Mike Beebe joined the race.

Polling        
T.Cotton --- M.Beebe ---               Date
      52                43            5             10/09-17/09
      51                 42            7             02/10-27/10  
      51                 44            5             12/10-01/11
      49                 46            5             02/11-05/11
      48                 48            4             04/11-12/11
      47                 47            6             17/11-28/11
      46                 48            6             03/12-06/01
      45                 48           7             04/12-19/12
      43                 51           6             02/01-13/01
      42                 53            5             10/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tilt R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tilt D
Fox News: Tilt D
Daily Kos: Tilt R



Many sources said that Asa Hutchinson, a popular current governor, is considering a possible run against unpopular Cotton. On January 5, he confirmed this, but said that the final decision was not taken, but will be adopted by February 20

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Beebe is popular and way popular then Bill Clinton when Bill is really high and He won in a landslide in 2010

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                                 Analysis Colorado Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 23 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 30 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Mark Udall- former U.S.Senator
   2)Cary Kennedy- former State Treasurer
   3)Dianne Primavera-incumbent Lieutenant Governor
2.Potencial:
   1)Jared Polis - incumbent Governor
   2)John Salazar- former U.S. Representative, brother of Ken Salazar
   3)Ken Salazar- former U.S.Senator, former U.S. Secrerary of Interior, brother of John Salazar
3.Declined:
   1)John Hickenlooper- former Governor (endorsed Udall)
   2)Ed Perlmutter-U.S. Representative (endorsed Kennedy)

[Dem. primary polling                                                          Date
Udall-Kennedy-Primavera-Polis-J.Salazar-K.Salazar-???    
   15        10               6           20           16             24         9              12/12-20/12
   26        14               9           28           17             ---          6              12/12-20/12
   31        17              13          30           ---              ---          9              12/12-20/12
   42        38              16          ---            ---              ---          4              12/12-20/12
   33        31              11          ---            18             ---          7              12/12-20/12
   24        25               9           ---            ---              36         6              12/12-20/12
   17        19              10          ---            17             29         8              12/12-20/12
   15        12               6           29           ---              32         6              12/12-20/12

   13        13               5           23           17             25         4              02/01-13/01
   18        16               9           24           25             ---          8              02/01-13/01      
   22        28              13          28           ---              ---          9              02/01-13/01      
   37        36              19          ---            ---              ---          8              02/01-13/01      
   21        26              20          ---            26             ---          7              02/01-13/01              
   22        24              17          ---            ---             32          5              02/01-13/01      
   15        19              12          ---            21            27          6              02/01-13/01          
   15        15              12          25           ---             27          6              02/01-13/01                              
Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Cory Gardner- incumbent Senator since 2015

Cory Gardner approval rating
Approve: 1) 44%; 2) 47%; 3) 49%; 4) 51%; 5) 53%; 6) 54%
Dissapprove: 1) 51%; 2) 47%; 3) 47%; 4) 45%; 5) 43%; 6) 43%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 6%; 3) 4%; 4) 4%; 5) 4%; 6) 3%

General election polling:
1)Gardner-Udall-???                Date         2)Gardner-Kennedy---???  
        43         52     5           03/07-12/08         44            50         6  
        43         50     7           15/09-29/09         45            50         5
        46         49     5           02/10-18/10         47            49         4
        47         47     6           20/10-05/11         47            47         6
        50         45     5           12/12-20/12         49            47         4
        51         45     4           02/01-13/01         49            47         4

3)Gardner-Primavera-???          Date           3)Gardner-Polis-----???
        45             49          6     03/07-12/08           43         53          4
        45             50          6     15/09-29/09           45         51          4
        47             50          3     02/10-18/10           46         51          3
        48             48          4     20/10-05/11           48         49          3
        49             46          5     12/12-20/12           48         46          6
        51             44          5     02/01-13/01           49         46          5

5)Gardner-J.Salazar-???          Date           6)Gardner-K.Salazar-???
       46               50        4      03/07-12/08           41             54          5
       46               51        3      15/09-29/09           42             54          4
       47               49        4      02/10-18/10           43             53          4
       49               46        5      20/10-05/11           45             52          3
       48               48        4      12/12-20/12           46             50          4
       47               48        5      02/01-13/01           45             50          5

Rating:
Cook: Tilt D
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tilt R

Although even before the fall of 2019, the most vulnerable senator GOP was considered Cory Gardner from Colorado, but his approval ratings began to grow rapidly, as well as the refusal of John Hickenlooper to flee it. The most vulnerable senator GOP was Tom Cotton from Arkansas, where his approval ratings fell sharply, and the former popular Governor Mike Beebe joined the race.


Cory Gardner has been steadily gaining popularity for unknown reasons, but one of them can be rightly called the fact that Gardner became one of Trump's greatest critics in the Senate among the Republicans and not only. Many experts believed that because of this he would face a rigid opposition to the primaries, but unlike Dems, where the field of candidates was crowded, Cory Gardner was the only candidate from the GOP

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                                Analysis Delaware Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 8 September 2020
Candidate filing deadline: 7 July 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Chris Coons-incumbent Senator
  
Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Rocky De La Fuentе-bussinessman, 2018 candidate

Chris Coons approval polling:
Approve: 1) 49%; 2) 51%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 42%; 2) 41%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 8%; 3) 9%
1)July 2019
2)October 2019
3)January 2020

No general election polling at the moment

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe D


The Republican party has not nominated any candidate who could defeat Chris Coons. The only candidate was Rocky De La Fuentе, which was not even considered the slightest threat

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                                          Analysis Georgia Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 19 May 2020
Candidate filing deadline: 6 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   1) Hank Johnson- U.S. Representative
   2) Teresa Tomlinson- Mayor of Columbus
2.Declined:
   1) Sanford Bishop- U.S. Representative (no endorsement)
   2) John Lewis- U.S. Representative (endorsed Tomlinson)
   3) Stacey Abrams- incumbent Governor (endorsed Tomlinson)
   4) Michelle Nunn- 2014 nominee (endorsed Johnson)

Democratic primary polling:            Date
H.Johnson---T.Tomlinson---???  
        41                     52             7          17/11-19/12
        45                     50             5          05/12-12/12
        48                     47             5          07/12-10/12
        44                     50             6          13/12-04/01
        42                     52             6          02/01-13/01

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1) David Perdue- incumbent Senator
   2) Karen Handel- U.S. Representative
   3) Brian Kemp- former Secretary of State, 2018 gubernatorial nominee
2.Potential:
   1) Jack Kingston- former U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Nathan Deal- former Governor ( no endorsement)
   2) Buddy Carter- U.S. Representative (endorsed Handel)

Republican primary polling:                                                 Date
1)With Kingston                                                                                          
D.Perdue---K.Handel---B.Kemp---J.Kingston---???
       27               23              15                30            5          05/12-12/12
       31               20              15                28            6          07/12-10/12
       26               25              15                27            7          13/12-04/01
       25               25              19                26            5          02/01-13/01
2)Without Kingston    
 D.Perdue---K.Handel---B.Kemp---J.Kingston---???
       37               35              17                ---            11         05/12-12/12
       42               34              16                ---             8          07/12-10/12
       36               36              20                ---             8          13/12-04/01
       33               34              23                ---            10         02/01-13/01

David Perdue approval rating:
Approve: 1) 46%; 2) 47%; 3) 46% 4) 46%
Dissapprove:  1) 46%; 2) 47%; 3) 47%; 4) 46%  
Don't know:  1) 8%; 2) 6%; 3) 7%; 4) 8%
1) July 2019
2) September 2019
3) November 2019
4) January 2020

General election polling with different candidates
1)Perdue--Johnson--???         Date          2)Perdue--Tomlinson--???
        47            47          6     05/12-12/12          45              48           7
        47            47          6     07/12-10/12          46              48           6
        47            48          5     13/12-04/01          46              49           5
        48            47          5     02/01-13/01          47              48           5

3)Handel--Johnson--???                           4)Handel--Tomlinson--???
        49            46          5     05/12-12/12          46              48           6
        48            47          5     07/12-10/12          47              47           6
        48            48          4     13/12-04/01          48              46           6
        48            47          5     02/01-13/01          46              47           7

5)Kemp---Johnson---???                           6)Kemp---Tomlinson---???
       46             50          4     05/12-12/12         47             47             6
       47             49          4     07/12-10/12         46             48             6
       48             49          3     13/12-04/01         45             50             5
       47             50          3     02/01-13/01         45             50             5

Cook: Lean R
I.E.: Tilt R
Sabato: Tossup
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R  


Above David Perdue was a real threat to lose not even general elections, but the primaries of the GOP.And while in the Democrats everything was overshadowed by the brutal struggle between Tomlinson and Johnson.

[UWS]

M. Reagan running in Arizona? Do you mean Michael Reagan?

[😥]

M. Reagan running in Arizona? Do you mean Michael Reagan?

No, I mean Michele Reagan, Secretary of State of Arizona since 2015

[UWS]

M. Reagan running in Arizona? Do you mean Michael Reagan?

No, I mean Michele Reagan, Secretary of State of Arizona since 2015

Okay. I thought it was someone with relation to the family of Ronald Reagan.

[😥]

                                     Analysis Idaho Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 19 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 13 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Mat Erpelding-Minority Leader of Idaho House of Representatives

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1) Raul Labrador- former U.S. Representative
   2) Brad Little- incumbent Governor
2.Declined:
    Jim Risch- incumbent Senator (endorsed Little)

Republican primary polling
R.Labrador---B.Little---???             Date
        47                49        4        18/11-24/11 (R-Labrador)
        46                48        6        23/11-29/11
        48                45        7        01/12-14/12
        49                45        6        10/12-12/12 (R-Labrador)
        45                48        7        18/12-01/01 (R-Little)
        47                47        6        02/01-13/01

Jim Risch approval rating
Approve: 1) 59%; 2) 57%
Dissapprove: 1) 32%; 2) 33%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 10%
1) July 2019
2) December 2019

General election polling
1) Labrador-Erpelding-???    Date             2) Little-Erpelding-???  
         63              30          7    18/11-24/11        55         39          6
                                                (R-Labrador)
         62              32          6    23/11-29/11        65         30          5
         63              30          7    02/01-13/01        67         27          6

Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe R


On January 10, Raul Labrador claimed if he lost GOP primaries, he would run for the election as member of Tea Party

  

[😥]

                                    Analysis Illinois Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 17 March 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 1 December 2019

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Dick Durbin-incumbent Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Michelle Obama- former First Lady
   2) Cheri Bustos- U.S. Representative
   3) Robin Kelly- U.S. Representative
   4) J.B. Pritzker- incumbent Governor

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
    Adam Kinzinger- U.S. Representative
2.Declined:
   1) Rodney Davis- U.S. Representative  
   2) Aaron Schock- former U.S. Representative
   3) Bruce Rauner- former Govenor

Dick Durbin approval rating:
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 48%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 41%; 2) 40%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 12%; 3) 10%

General election polling
D.Durbin-----A.Kinzinger-----???           Date
       54                   39               7         16/05-14/06
       52                   40               8         10/09-17/09 (R-Kinzinger)
       53                   40               7         25/09-10/10
       54                   40               6         04/10-26/10
       53                   41               6         07/11-11/11
       55                   39               6         09/12-17/12 (D-Durbin)
       50                   37             13         13/12-21/12 (R-Kinzinger)
       54                   41               5         02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Likely D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Likely D (highest)
Daily Kos: Safe D


Despite the widespread rumors about Dick Durbin's retiring, he said he would run. The only Republican was U.S Representative Adam Kinzinger, although he was not considered a real threat.

[😥]

Are You interested in this topic? Please give me a response.It is very important for me

[😥]

HOT NEWSJanuary 15th

At the moment, we are interrupting our analysis to announce hot news: Dennis Moore drops out the Kansas Senate race, while Paul Davis announced his candidacy, Cook i Sabato instantly moved this race from Likely R to Tossup

[😥]

                                    Analysis Iowa Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 2 June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 13 March 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   Tom Vilsack- former Governor, former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture
2.Potential:
   Abby Finkenauer- U.S. Represenrative
3.Declined:
   1) Dave Loebsack- U.S. Representative (endorsed Vilsack)
   2) Cindy Axne- U.S. Representative (endorsed Vilsack)
   3) Chet Culver- former Governor (endorsed Vilsack)
   4) Tom Miller- Attorney General (endorsed Vilsack)

Half sources say that Finkenauer will run. The probability of this is considered to be 55%.

Democratic primary polling
T.Vilsack-----A.Finkenauer-----???         Date
      66                      28                 6       12/11-23/11
      68                      29                 3       17/12-29/12
      65                      28                 7       02/01-13/01

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1) Joni Ernst- incumbent Senator
2.Potential:
   1) Rod Blum- former U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Kim Reynolds- incumbent Governor (endorsed Ernst)
   2) Paul Pate- Secretary of State (endorsed Ernst)
   3) Steve King- U.S. Representative (endorsed Blum)
  
All sources say that Blum will run. The probability of this is considered to be 85%.

Republican primary polling
J.Ernst-----R.Blum-----???           Date
     73            22            5         12/11-23/11
     72            23            5         12/11-13/12
     72            24            4         02/01-13/01

Joni Ernst approval rating:
Approve: 1) 50%; 2) 51%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 41%; 2) 40%; 3) 40%
Don't know: 1) 9%; 2) 9%; 3) 10%

General election polling:
1)T.Vilsack---J.Ernst---???       Date          2)T.Vilsack---R.Blum---???
          50             43         7    10/10-19/10            55             39         6
          49             42         9    12/11-23/11            56             36         8
          46             46         8    18/11-02/12            59             30        11
                                                 (R-Ernst)
          49             43         8    17/12-29/12            56             36         8
          50             44         6    02/01-13/01            55             35        10

3)A.Finkenauer---J.Ernst---???
              43                 43        14    18/12-03/01 (D-Finkenauer)
              40                 53         7      02/01-13/01

4)A.Finkenauer---R.Blum---???
                     no polls

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Tilt R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup


Although Vilsack held a powerful campaign, rumors of a deterioration in his health have rumors recently. This was almost confirmed when he disappeared for just over a week in December

[😥]

2018 Senate results

 

D gain: AZ, NV, TN
R gain: ND, FL

Results by states (competitive races)
1) Arizona
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 50,6%
Marta McSally (R) 47,8%
2) Nevada
Jacky Rosen (D) 47,7%
Dean Heller (R) inc. 47,5%
3) Tennessee
Phil Bredesen (D) 48,9%
Marsha Blackburn (R) 48,4%
4) North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R) 49,5%
Heidi Heitkamp (D) inc. 47,8%
5) Florida
Rick Scott (R) 48,22%
Bill Nelson (D) inc. 48,17%

Other competitive race:

6) Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D) inc. 47,6%
Josh Hawley (R) 47,3%
7) Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) inc. 49,4%
Mike Braun (R) 48,1%
Texas
Ted Cruz (R) inc. 49,5%
Beto O'Rourke (D) 48,1%
9) Montana
Jon Tester (D) inc. 53,6%
Matt Rosendale (R) 44,9%
10) West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) inc. 56,7%
Patrick Morrisey (R) 43,1%

11)Mississippi-special:
Mike Espy (D)                       38,7%                      45,2%
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) inc.  34,9%                      54,8%
Chris McDaniel  (R)             20,8%

[😥]

                                Analysis Kansas Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 4 August 2020
Candidate filing deadline: 5 February 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
    Paul Davis- U.S. Representative, 2014 gubernatorial nominee
2.Withdraw:
    Dennis Moore- former U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1)Sharice Davids- U.S. Representative
   2)Kathleen Sebelius- former Governor, former U.S HHS Secretary

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Lynn Jenkins- former U.S. Representative
   2)Sam Brownback- former Governor, U.S. Ambassador for IRF
   3)Ron Estes- U.S. Representative
   4)Kris Kobach- former Secretary of State, 2018 gubernatorial nominee
2.Declined:
   1)Jeff Colyer- former Governor
   2)Pat Roberts- incumbent Senator

Republican primary polling                                                Date
L.Jenkins---S.Brownback---R.Estes---K.Kobach---???
       28                    29                  22              15           6    04/12-17/12
       30                    29                  20              16           5    11/12-15/12
       27                    26                  26              14           7    15/12-23/12
                                                                                                (R-Estes)
       28                    28                  27              14           3    02/01-13/01

Pat Roberts approval rating:
No polls

General election polling:            Date
1)P.Davis---L.Jenkins---???                                 2)P.Davis---R.Estes---???
        48                46           6    04/12-17/12               50              45         5
        47                46           7    09/12-18/12               51              44         5
        48                47           5    02/01-13/01               51              45         4

3)P.Davis-S.Brownback-???                               4)P.Davis-K.Kobach-???
         52                45           3    04/12-17/12              -----------------------
         53                44           3    09/12-18/12              -----------------------
         52                44           4    02/01-13/01              55           40         5

Rating:
Cook: Likely R       Tossup (from 15th January)
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Likely R   Tossup (from 15th January)
NYT:  Likely R
CNN: Likely R        Tilt D (from 15th January)
RCP: Tilt R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Kos: Lean R


Paul Davis was an extremely strong Democratic candidate. Surveys showed that he was leading all the candidates. While the GOP field was overcrowded and all the candidates attacked each other, the only candidate from Dems campaigned strongly, uniting all Democrats around him

[😥]

                                  Analysis Kentucky Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 19 May 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 27 January 2020

Democratic Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Alison Lungergan Grimes- Secretary of State, 2014 nominee
   2)Crit Luallen- former Lieutenant Governor
2.Potential:
    Andy Beshear- incumbent Governor
3.Declined:
    1)Steve Beshear- former Governor (endorsed Grimes)
    2)John Yarmuth- U.S. Representative (endorsed Grimes)
    3)Amy McGrath- U.S. Representative (endorsed Grimes)
No primary polling at the moment

Republican Party:
1.Declared:
   1)Mitch McConnell- incumbent Senator
   2)Matt Bevin- former Governor
2.Declined:
   1)Robert Stivers- President of the Kentucky Senate
   2)James Comer- U.S. Representative

Republican primary polling
M.McConnell---M.Bevin---???           Date
            54                40          6        07/03-18/03 (R-McConnell)
            53                40          7        11/10-17/10
            53                41          6        20/10-01/11
            52                40          8        03/11-21/11 (R-Bevin)
            53                41          6        02/12-23/12
            54                41          5        20/12-30/12
            53                41          6        02/01-13/01

Mitch McConnell approval rating:
Approve:1) 31%; 2) 32%; 3) 30%; 4) 31%; 5) 29%; 6) 27%
Dissapprove: 1) 61%; 2) 61%; 3) 62%; 4) 60%; 5) 63%; 6) 65%;
Don't know: 1) 8%; 2) 7%; 3) 8%; 4) 9%; 5) 8%; 6) 8%
1)April 2019
2)June 2019
3)September 2019
4)October 2019
5)December 2019
6)January 2020
        
General election polling:                              Date
1)M.McConnell---A.L.Grimes---???
               49                    45            6         07/03-18/03 (R-McConnell)
               48                    45            7         20/10-01/11
               48                    46            6         02/12-23/12
               47                    45            8        07/12-17/12 (D-Grimes)
               48                    46            6         20/12-30/12
               47                    46            7         02/01-13/01
               47                    48            5         05/01-13/01 (D-Grimes)

2)M.Bevin---A.L.Grimes---???
         44                46           10                07/03-18/03 (R-McConnell)
         48                45            7                   02/12-23/12 
         45                46            9                   07/12-17/12 (D-Grimes)
         47                45            8                   02/01-13/01
         44                49            7                    05/01-13/01(D-Grimes)
No polls with other candidates.


Rating:
Cook: Tilt R
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Lean R
RCP: Tilt R
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[Cold War Liberal]

Interesting!

[😥]

                                   Analysis Louisiana Senate race 2020
15th January 2020
Primary: 22 August 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 3 November 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Mitch Landrieu- Mayor of New Orleans
2.Potential:
   1)Don Cazayoux- former U.S. Representative
   2)Jay Luneau- State Senator
3.Declined:
   1)Mary Landrieu- former Senator
   2)John Bel Edwards- incumbent Governor
   3)Cedric Richmond- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1)Bill Cassidy- incumbent Senator
2.Potential:
   1)Charles Boustany- former U.S. Representative, 2016 candidate
   2)Paul Hollis- State Representative

Bill Cassidy approval rating
Approve:1) 56%; 2) 50%; 3) 58%
Dissapprove: 1) 37%; 2) 41%; 3) 33%
Don't know: 1) 7%; 2) 9%; 3) 9%
1)July 2019
2)October 2019
3)January 2020

General election polling
Landrieu-Cazayoux-Luneau-Cassidy-Boustany-Hollis-???          Date
      21              10             8           32             11            11    7     09/11-20/11
      19               9              8           29             10            16    9     21/11-29/11
      18              10             8           30              9             17    8     27/11-12/12
      18               8             10          29              9             18    8     03/12-18/12
      18               7             11          30              7             20    7     24/12-27/12
      20               6             11          32              6             18    7     02/01-13/01

Runnoff
1)M.Landrieu---B.Cassidy---???           Date
             37                   52         11     09/11-20/11
             38                   53          9      27/11-12/12
             37                   53         10     02/01-13/01

2)P.Hollis---B.Cassidy---???
         32               59          9             27/11-12/12
         31               61          8             02/01-13/01

Hypotecial:
1)J.Bel Edwards---B.Cassidy-???    
                49                    45        6        04/04-17/05
         ----- John Bel Edwards win reecletion as gubernator
 against U.S. Representative Steve Scalie in first round 53-38-other-----
                50                    45        5        09/11-20/11
                55                    44        1        02/01-13/01

Rating:
Cook: Likely R
I.E.: Likely R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Likely R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Likely R
Fox News: Likely R (highest)
Daily Cos: Likely R


In the spring of 2019, Mitch Landrieu was considered an excellent candidate, but in the autumn, not everyone knew whether he would be in run-off. It was clear that the only candidate Cassidy could overcome was the popular Governor John Bel Edwards, who categorically refused to do so. There were rumors that if Democratic candidate loses the presidential election of 2020, then JBE will run in 2024

[Huey Long is a Republican]

for Tennessee, please have Alexander retire and Haslam run! I can't choose either!

[😥]

for Tennessee, please have Alexander retire and Haslam run! I can't choose either!

Haslam run in Tennessee

[Huey Long is a Republican]

for Tennessee, please have Alexander retire and Haslam run! I can't choose either!

Haslam run in Tennessee

YES!