Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Antonio the Sixth]

In my opinion, Abrams should have used her segment on Morning Joe to explain to those 53,000 voters that effectively nothing has changed, and that all they need to do is show their photo IDs when they go vote (as they would have to do anyway). Instead, she spent that time talking about how bad both Kemp and the situation were.

IIRC, they have the list of people, so they can always send them mailers explaining the situation and maybe even call some of them too. That would probably be worth the money.

Maybe they can even use the situation to goad them into voting by reminding them how much the other party doesn't want them to vote.

Yeah, I think it's actually a smart strategy of Abrams to make this a big deal publicly (hopefully riling up more voters not directly affected by this to turn out) while quietly explaining people affected by it how they can still vote.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

How about we throw Latino decisions into the fray as well.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

They should combine forces with MoScout and poll only one state senate district.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

They should combine forces with MoScout and poll only one state senate district.

Brilliant. A Latino Decisions-AARP-MoScout poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution of only Latino female Seniors in 1 Senate district. Make it a Senate district somewhere in rural Georgia where there is a really low Latino population, and maybe it will be possible for it to be a poll of only a single voter.

[Antonio the Sixth]

AJC has a new poll out exclusively of women tomorrow.

I have an idea. They can partner with the AARP and get a solid majority of the electorate.

More likely they would do the opposite, and poll only female Seniors. Just what we need, a poll of only female Seniors!

They should combine forces with MoScout and poll only one state senate district.

Brilliant. A Latino Decisions-AARP-MoScout poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution of only Latino female Seniors in 1 Senate district. Make it a Senate district somewhere in rural Georgia where there is a really low Latino population, and maybe it will be possible for it to be a poll of only a single voter.

100% accuracy!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1051295857591627776

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1051295857591627776

Trying to read the tea leaves...

Liberty should be because of Fort Stewart - those are probably not per se unlikely voters, but people who moved there recently because of the military base.

Decatur - in SW GA, large black population, sounds promising?

Lowndes - new registrant college students at Valdosta St. (Historically black college)? Sounds very promising.

Morgan - I am not sure that one is so great, it is a rural county south of Athens and East of Atlanta, but not with a particularly high African American population. Any explanation for this one?

Clayton - Like with Liberty County, this is probably not just unlikely voters per se, but people who moved there recently and registered recently, because it has high African American population growth (South Atlanta suburbs). Most Dem county in GA, freedom county!

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 2,202 valid votes were received on Saturday (which usually doesn't produce any figures - guessing some counties are working overtime to get ballots handled); today's accepted ballot total stands at 52,588 votes: 2.06% of total 2014 turnout.

The white share of the vote fell by nearly half a point today, with the other groups gaining a small amount. The 65 and up share of the electorate continues to fall at roughly one-half percentage point each day - the fact that it continued that today, despite only half as many ballots being received and counted (Saturday), is impressive.

2,664 new ballots were requested on Saturday, bringing the total of requested ballots to 185,724.
Sometime next week, the number of requested mail ballots will exceed the total number of returned mail ballots in 2016. It may be hard to know exactly when given in-person voting starts Monday and depending on whether the data is broken down by early vote type, however (but I do know that I'm not digging through and sorting the giant absentee spreadsheet to find out).

Returned VBM totals are 126% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 117% yesterday).

Code:

White	23371	44.4% (-0.4)
Black	21720	41.3% (+0.1)
Latino	1308          2.5% (+0.1)
Asian	1612	         3.1%  (+0.1)
Other	4577	         8.7%  (0.0)

Female	30780	58.5% (0.0)
Male		20919 	39.8% (0.0)
Unknown	889	        1.7%   (0.0)

18-29	 3540	6.7%   (+0.1)
30-39	 2878	5.5%   (+0.1)
40-49	 4018	7.6%   (+0.1)
50-64       12132	23.1%  (+0.1)
65+          29210       55.5%  (-0.4)
Unknown	   810        1.5%   (0.0)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lowndes - new registrant college students at Valdosta St. (Historically black college)? Sounds very promising.

Valdosta State isn't a historically black college.  It is a large university, though, with about 11K students.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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18-29 is higher than 30-39.  How does that compare to past turnout?

(And thanks for posting these updates!)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1051523896766279680

[Inmate Trump]

Early voting begins tomorrow and I'm planning to go early in the day.  This will be my first time showing up on the first day of in-person voting.  Usually I kinda just go when I feel like it, but this time I'm going first thing.

I hope the rest of my state's Democratic voters are as energized about Stacey as I am, and I hope they plan to vote sooner rather than later.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1051523896766279680

[Adam Griffin]

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18-29 is higher than 30-39.  How does that compare to past turnout?

(And thanks for posting these updates!)

That's not particularly surprising: a 12-year group versus a 10-year group (20% more range in the former; 5.5% * 1.2 = 6.6%) - especially when the former group has more people in it.

I don't have any stats on-hand for past VBM breakdowns by age. I can't remember if such stats can be fetched from the SoS, but I think only total turnout or all forms of early voting combined can be gathered unless you have statewide voter file access. I want to say 18-29 VBM ballots roughly match what in-person voting was in 2014 percentage-wise, but I'm not entirely sure.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1051635638448074752

[Adam Griffin]

With advance in-person voting beginning today, let's take a look back at 2014 to see what we might expect. In 2014, the first week was relatively slow, with only about 15% of all early votes being cast in that period. Week 2 (which included Saturday and - where offered - Sunday voting) accounted for about 30% of all votes cast. In Week 3, a slight majority of all early votes were cast.

Period	Votes	Share of EV
Pre-AIP	23256	3%
Week 1	142889	15%
Week 2	276311	29%
Week 3	497881	53%

[Inmate Trump]

Just got back from voting.

I’m in a heavily Trump/Kemp favored district. 80+% for Trump in 2016. There was a woman originally from NYC moved to GA also there who voted for Abrams.  And a middle aged white guy supporting Abrams.  And obviously me supporting her.  There might have been others but out of the 7 or so that were there that’s a fairly promising sign.

We could be the only three in my district going for Abrams, or it could be a sign that things might just turn out alright.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Early voting line in Newton County is all the way down the block. Love it!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Early voting line in Newton County is all the way down the block. Love it!

Pics or it didn't happen. I want to see huge lines of people lining up to vote early like in 2008. Then we will know it is real.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticallyGa/status/1051873595872432128

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/PoliticallyGa/status/1051873595872432128

Apparently in 2016, the wait time for the LAST day of early voting in Cobb County were up to 3 hours:

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/you-plan-voting-today-cobb-pack-your-patience/AHo7nPe9Ypq99YzMcFxqMI/

I couldn't find information about the first day after a brief search. Are the lines more likely to be longest on the first day or the last day? Anyway, this provides some basis for comparison.

It will be interesting to see the #s tonight, looking forward to it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Deal extends the voter registration deadline to tomorrow for four counties (Clay, Grady, Randolph and Turner) that were hit hard by Hurricane Michael.

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently in 2016, the wait time for the LAST day of early voting in Cobb County were up to 3 hours:

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/you-plan-voting-today-cobb-pack-your-patience/AHo7nPe9Ypq99YzMcFxqMI/

I couldn't find information about the first day after a brief search. Are the lines more likely to be longest on the first day or the last day? Anyway, this provides some basis for comparison.

It will be interesting to see the #s tonight, looking forward to it.

In 2014, there were approximately the same number of votes on the last day of early voting statewide (137k) as there were during the entire first week of in-person early voting (142k). The last day is usually the busiest:

(2014)

Period	Votes	Share of EV
Pre-AIP	23256	3%
Week 1	142889	15%
Week 2	276311	29%
Week 3	497881	53%

[Adam Griffin]

It wouldn't be a Georgia election w/o Fulton County screwing everything up and having "computer issues"

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The entire department needs to be canned.