Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[ON Progressive]

It wouldn't be a Georgia election w/o Fulton County screwing everything up and having "computer issues"

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The entire department needs to be canned.

Why can’t there just be paper ballots rather than incredibly insecure and glitchy machines? Oh right, it’s Georgia. They might actually be the worst state at running elections in the union, and that takes effort.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It wouldn't be a Georgia election w/o Fulton County screwing everything up and having "computer issues"

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The entire department needs to be canned.

Why can’t there just be paper ballots rather than incredibly insecure and glitchy machines? Oh right, it’s Georgia. They might actually be the worst state at running elections in the union, and that takes effort.

Paper ballots are on the way for 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1051915600195407874

[Antonio the Sixth]

Georgia is a third-world State.

[Adam Griffin]

Just downloaded the voter file for today that came out a few minutes ago, and based on the number of requested mail ballots that existed yesterday and comparing them to the total number on the sheet today, it looks like 75-80k people voted early today. To compare, 23k voted early on the first day in 2014. Wow.

Will wait for Georgia Votes data to update and provide precise figures.

[_]

Just downloaded the voter file for today that came out a few minutes ago, and based on the number of requested mail ballots that existed yesterday and comparing them to the total number on the sheet today, it looks like 75-80k people voted early today. To compare, 23k voted early on the first day in 2014. Wow.

Will wait for Georgia Votes data to update and provide precise figures.

So at least triple what it was in 2014?  That's nuts.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1052020560128081920

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So at least triple what it was in 2014?  That's nuts.

Beautiful amazing. Any idea the #s in previous presidential years? 2016 but maybe also 2008?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So of the new voters today (backing out the numbers from subtracting what is on georgiavotes from what Fmr. Pres. Griff posted yesterday), it looks like 60% were white, 29.6% black, 1.1% Hispanic, 1.0% Asian, 8.3% Other.

Meh I dunno, I would have hoped for a higher African American share there.

White   46,177   60.0%
Black      22,771   29.6%
Hispanic   826      1.1%
Asian      735      1.0%
Other   6,420   8.3%

The absolute #s are certainly impressive, but it seems a bit less good than the mail ballots were going so far. This is probably hurt by the problems in Fulton, I guess, and maybe still hurricane damage in the black belt.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 76,929 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 129,517 votes: 5.08% of total 2014 turnout. More than three times the number of votes were cast on the first day of in-person early voting this year than were cast on the same day in 2014.

The white share of the electorate obviously surged today, with the electorate that voted today pretty closely resembling that of 2014 and 2016's electorates overall (60% white, 30% black). The female share of the electorate fell precipitously, as did the 65+ share (mostly due to 50-64 year-olds voting). In short, the electorate got considerably whiter, more male and younger (at least when comparing extremes).

1,377 new mail ballots applications were received today, bringing the total of requested mail ballots to 187,101.

Early vote totals are 181% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 127% yesterday).

Code:

White	69548	53.7% (+9.3)
Black	44491	34.4% (-6.9)
Latino	2134          1.6% (-0.9)
Asian	2347	         1.8%  (-1.3)
Other	10997        8.4%  (-0.2)

Female	69829	53.9% (-4.6)
Male		57177 	44.1% (+4.3)
Unknown	2511	        1.9%   (+0.2)

18-29	 6936	5.4%   (-1.3)
30-39	 7243	5.6%   (+0.1)
40-49	11727	9.1%   (+1.5)
50-64       36077	27.9%  (+4.8)
65+          65158       50.3%  (-5.2)
Unknown	  2376        1.8%   (+0.3)

[Adam Griffin]

And of those who have voted thus far, here's the breakdown of how their votes were distributed in 2014 by race. I found it interesting that there's virtually no difference in the white share between people who voted ED & EV in 2014 (though there's a meaningful difference in black share of vote):

[Inmate Trump]

So these numbers so far look better for Kemp right?  Or am I interpreting it wrong?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Assuming the white votes cast are 75/25 Kemp and the black are 90/10 Abrams she is still leading with the electorate being 53/34 white/black. Doesn’t the EV electorate get blacker as it goes on? The first day essentially resembling the usual make up of the electorate already seems positive to me. Someone on Twitter asked the Georgia votes guy the make up of the electorate this time in 2014 and he said it was 69/26 white/black.

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming the white votes cast are 75/25 Kemp and the black are 90/10 Abrams she is still leading with the electorate being 53/34 white/black. Doesn’t the EV electorate get blacker as it goes on? The first day essentially resembling the usual make up of the electorate already seems positive to me. Someone on Twitter asked the Georgia votes guy the make up of the electorate this time in 2014 and he said it was 69/26 white/black.

There's no real correlation if memory serves: in 2014, the share of the electorate got blacker as early voting progressed, but in 2016, it got whiter. Perhaps there is a correlation and for whatever reason whites wait longer to wait in presidential elections and blacks wait longer in midterm elections, but I don't have the data available to check prior to 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

Map is (obviously) starting to look a lot more in line with usual voting patterns rather than looking like a throwback to Dixiecratdom:

[Adam Griffin]

Right now in Gwinnett County (consistent line of about 100):

[jamestroll]

Good. Gwinnett is going to go the way of Lake County, IL

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's only one early voting location open at present in Gwinnett, right?

[Rookie Yinzer]

There's only one early voting location open at present in Gwinnett, right?

Yes. Six more will open on Saturday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Black senior citizens ordered off Georgia bus taking them to vote

[Adam Griffin]

Election 2018: DeKalb first day voter turnout nears 2008 election totals

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For what it's worth, that figure - proportionately - is actually slightly behind the statewide average as a whole.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats vastly outraising GOP incumbents in "competitive" districts (3-to-1 in GA-07 and 2-to-1 in GA-06):

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[Rookie Yinzer]

McBath isn't winning.

I am starting to imagine a scenario where Bourdeaux pulls an upset. Still Lean Woodall.

[Adam Griffin]

It didn't slow down today: 82,344 votes cast on Tuesday. More to come...

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 82,344 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 211,861 votes: 8.31% of total 2014 turnout.

Today's total exceeded yesterday's, when more than three times the number of votes were cast when compared to the first day of early voting in 2014. Today, that number was roughly four times as many as in 2014.

The white share of the electorate surged once again, with the electorate that voted today being 62% white, 28% black and 10% other. The female share of the electorate fell again, as did the 65+ share (mostly due to 50-64 year-olds voting), with this being the first time that 65+ voters are less than 50% of the electorate. In short, the electorate (again) got whiter, more male and younger (at least when comparing extremes).

Early vote totals are 215% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 181% yesterday).

Code:

White	121172	57.2% (+3.5)
Black	67141	31.7% (-2.7)
Latino	2853          1.3% (-0.3)
Asian	3083	         1.5%  (-0.3)
Other	17612        8.3%  (-0.1)

Female	112474	53.1% (-0.8)
Male		95314 	45.0% (+0.9)
Unknown	4073	        1.9%   (0.0)

18-29	 10628	5.0%   (-0.4)
30-39	 12268	5.8%   (+0.2)
40-49	 20426	9.6%   (+0.5)
50-64        61410	29.0%  (+1.1)
65+         103243      48.7%  (-1.6)
Unknown	  3886       1.8%   (0.0)