Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:20:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 79
Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)  (Read 139148 times)
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #600 on: October 19, 2018, 10:30:54 AM »

Here is the Bottom Line:
The Governor Race this year reminds me a bit of the Saxby Chambliss/Dean Martin Race in 2008. A Democrat simply won't get 50+x in the Regular Election. This thing will go into a Runoff where Kemp will win easily.
Everything always happens until it doesn't.

Stacey Abrams isn't Jim Martin, we are in a completely different political climate from 2008, and GA's electorate has only gotten more diverse.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #601 on: October 19, 2018, 10:57:18 AM »

Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #602 on: October 19, 2018, 05:15:40 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2018, 05:44:43 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

Still trying to piece together footage from today's Dalton event (all I've got so far is a partial panorama), but I'd say at least 200 people were there to hear from Janice Law, Charlie Bailey and Stacey Abrams. Somebody said "250+" but a lot of people tend to overcount crowds for events they support.

Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #603 on: October 19, 2018, 05:44:29 PM »

Dalton:



Rome:



Cartersville:

Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #604 on: October 19, 2018, 07:51:21 PM »

I just got polled AGAIN, this time mostly about the AG race (several questions about each of the candidates), but they also asked Trump favorability and the governor race.  It was a live caller poll and the phone number ID'ed as SEEL, LLC with a 313 area code.  Google says there is a company by that name in Detroit, but it's an "energy efficiency solutions" company.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #605 on: October 19, 2018, 09:21:26 PM »

Looks like 100,000+ ballots were cast or requested today. The absentee data is auto-generated by SoS each night and it has to compile, and as the file size gets bigger and bigger, it releases later and later (in the beginning, it came out at 9:15...we're now past 10 before the SoS sheet appears). Anyway, GeorgiaVotes hasn't updated yet but should shortly.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #606 on: October 19, 2018, 10:31:22 PM »

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 99,582 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 482,500 votes: 18.92% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 197% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 194% yesterday).

The white share of the electorate increased by 1 point since yesterday. The electorate that voted today was 64% white, 28% black and 8% other (62/28/10 yesterday). Today was the single biggest day in the reduction of the 65+ category (from 46.5% yesterday to 44.1% today), with all other age groups growing in size.

Code:
White 292440 60.6% (+1.0)
Black 141497 29.3% (-0.5)
Latino 5440         1.1% (-0.1)
Asian 5460         1.1%  (-0.1)
Other 37663        7.8%  (-0.4)

Female 257153 53.3% (+0.2)
Male 216608 44.9% (-0.1)
Unknown 8739        1.8%   (-0.1)

18-29 25941 5.4%   (+0.5)
30-39 32391 6.7%   (+0.5)
40-49 53693 11.1%   (+0.7)
50-64       149280 30.9%  (+0.8)
65+         212756      44.1%  (-2.4)
Unknown  8439       1.7%   (-0.2)
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #607 on: October 19, 2018, 10:34:08 PM »

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 99,582 valid votes were cast yesterday; today's accepted ballot total stands at 482,500 votes: 18.92% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 197% higher than at this point in 2014 (up from 194% yesterday).

The white share of the electorate increased by 1 point since yesterday. The electorate that voted today was 64% white, 28% black and 8% other (62/28/10 yesterday). Today was the single biggest day in the reduction of the 65+ category (from 46.5% yesterday to 44.1% today), with all other age groups growing in size.

Code:
White 292440 60.6% (+1.0)
Black 141497 29.3% (-0.5)
Latino 5440         1.1% (-0.1)
Asian 5460         1.1%  (-0.1)
Other 37663        7.8%  (-0.4)

Female 257153 53.3% (+0.2)
Male 216608 44.9% (-0.1)
Unknown 8739        1.8%   (-0.1)

18-29 25941 5.4%   (+0.5)
30-39 32391 6.7%   (+0.5)
40-49 53693 11.1%   (+0.7)
50-64       149280 30.9%  (+0.8)
65+         212756      44.1%  (-2.4)
Unknown  8439       1.7%   (-0.2)
Yesterday as in Thursday or yesterday as in Friday?
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #608 on: October 19, 2018, 10:34:44 PM »

So today was younger and slightly more female, but whiter as well.  If the older group keeps decreasing that is a generally positive thing for Abrams right?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #609 on: October 19, 2018, 10:37:07 PM »

Yesterday as in Thursday or yesterday as in Friday?

Every update is for the most recent day of early voting - I've gotten into a habit of not updating before midnight and have been copying/pasting over previous updates, hence why it says that. This update was for Friday.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #610 on: October 19, 2018, 10:39:19 PM »

So today was younger and slightly more female, but whiter as well.  If the older group keeps decreasing that is a generally positive thing for Abrams right?

Yes, but race - not age - is the biggest predictive factor in how somebody will vote in GA. Today's drop in olds was probably large enough to cancel out any gains from white voters, but it certainly hasn't been the case for every day of in-person voting.

I'd say that for every 2-3 points the 65+ crowd loses (assuming the gains among the other age groups are relatively proportionate), we can sustain a 1 point gain in the white electorate.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #611 on: October 19, 2018, 10:43:57 PM »

So, in your estimate, would the white/non-white share of the early vote need to be 60/40 in order for Abrams to have a shot going into Election Day?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #612 on: October 19, 2018, 11:09:02 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2018, 11:12:06 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

So, in your estimate, would the white/non-white share of the early vote need to be 60/40 in order for Abrams to have a shot going into Election Day?

That depends on how many "others" there ultimately are (many of those people are white) and how many people vote early. In 2014, 37% of Georgians voted early; if the current trends continue, we could have as many people vote early as voted in total in 2014.

After the final day of in-person early voting in 2014, the electorate was 61-33-6 and Carter still lost that group by a fraction of a point (and he lost ED by double digits). If the share of early voters is smaller, then Abrams needs that white EV number to be lower; she can squeeze by with a higher number if the vast majority of people vote early.

I'd say the white EV figure needs to be somewhere between 55-59%, depending on the scenario.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #613 on: October 20, 2018, 01:33:47 AM »

Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #614 on: October 20, 2018, 02:14:37 AM »

Glad to see Democrats finally breaking the law to reverse all the GOP's voter shenanigans!

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #615 on: October 20, 2018, 12:37:17 PM »

Glad to see Democrats finally breaking the law to reverse all the GOP's voter shenanigans!

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #616 on: October 20, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »

Glad to see Democrats finally breaking the law to reverse all the GOP's voter shenanigans!

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

FF!
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #617 on: October 20, 2018, 01:32:08 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Except, perhaps, they should only get the $ off if they actually vote.

More generally, perhaps all voters in general should receive a tax credit for voting, as a way to increase turnout. Although the 24th amendment prohibits poll taxes, it does not prohibit poll tax credits. Of course, if voters wanted to, they could always cast a blank ballot, and can vote for whoever they want. But give the people an incentive to vote and raise voter turnout.

Other benefits are already conferred on voters, though generally of a smaller nature. A simple example is giving voters a sticker for voting - a sticker is not worth much, but it is not nothing. It is a small benefit, but nonetheless is a benefit and establishes a precedent of giving voters a benefit for voting.

Seems like a good policy to me.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #618 on: October 20, 2018, 02:04:36 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Except, perhaps, they should only get the $ off if they actually vote.

More generally, perhaps all voters in general should receive a tax credit for voting, as a way to increase turnout. Although the 24th amendment prohibits poll taxes, it does not prohibit poll tax credits. Of course, if voters wanted to, they could always cast a blank ballot, and can vote for whoever they want. But give the people an incentive to vote and raise voter turnout.

Other benefits are already conferred on voters, though generally of a smaller nature. A simple example is giving voters a sticker for voting - a sticker is not worth much, but it is not nothing. It is a small benefit, but nonetheless is a benefit and establishes a precedent of giving voters a benefit for voting.

Seems like a good policy to me.

Instead of an "I voted" sticker, give every voter a lottery ticket. Smiley
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #619 on: October 20, 2018, 03:49:30 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Except, perhaps, they should only get the $ off if they actually vote.

That would definitely be illegal under the current, as opposed to only potentially being so with voter registration.

Nevertheless, when I first read this, I thought "yep, that's illegal in GA (and purportedly at the federal level too)" because you are receiving something in exchange for registering. We've been told to not even give out candy, balloons and the like when doing VR just to ensure we don't have any exposure to risk or legal action (of course, we're also in a hostile part of the state, so...).
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #620 on: October 20, 2018, 06:30:01 PM »

One of my classmates from college shared her wait in line in Henry County this morning.



Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #621 on: October 20, 2018, 06:45:05 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Yea honestly businesses and govt agencies should be allowed to do this with voter registration as much as they please imo. I don't see the issue with simply asking that someone register - it's not demanding they vote a certain way, after all, and with America constantly getting low turnout elections relative to the developed world, we ought to use whatever leverage we have to push registration rates higher.

Or we could just enact same-day registration in every single state. That would be much better. But of course higher turnout is the entire reason it's not allowed in most Republican-controlled states.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #622 on: October 20, 2018, 10:33:25 PM »

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #623 on: October 20, 2018, 10:58:13 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Yea honestly businesses and govt agencies should be allowed to do this with voter registration as much as they please imo. I don't see the issue with simply asking that someone register - it's not demanding they vote a certain way, after all, and with America constantly getting low turnout elections relative to the developed world, we ought to use whatever leverage we have to push registration rates higher.

Or we could just enact same-day registration in every single state. That would be much better. But of course higher turnout is the entire reason it's not allowed in most Republican-controlled states.

I work for an anti-poverty organization that works with the federal government through various grants. We help them draft a lot of their reports and we do their data collection. We've just finished a big revision of the data collection and reporting process. During that process we were trying to figure out what would be good things to add about what different groups where doing to help those in need. Someone suggested that we take data on those that help get people registered to vote and actually out to vote. We were told that was a no-no and wouldn't be allowed in the report. This was still when Obama was President!
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #624 on: October 20, 2018, 11:42:40 PM »

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Except, perhaps, they should only get the $ off if they actually vote.

More generally, perhaps all voters in general should receive a tax credit for voting, as a way to increase turnout. Although the 24th amendment prohibits poll taxes, it does not prohibit poll tax credits. Of course, if voters wanted to, they could always cast a blank ballot, and can vote for whoever they want. But give the people an incentive to vote and raise voter turnout.

Other benefits are already conferred on voters, though generally of a smaller nature. A simple example is giving voters a sticker for voting - a sticker is not worth much, but it is not nothing. It is a small benefit, but nonetheless is a benefit and establishes a precedent of giving voters a benefit for voting.

Seems like a good policy to me.

Exactly! Ideally the pride of doing one's civic duty should be enough, but since nobody gives a sh*t about citizenship anymore we need more tangible incentives.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29 30 ... 79  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.085 seconds with 12 queries.