Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Forecast for the northern half of Georgia two weeks out - not good!

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

What was the male vs female numbers on this day in 2014?

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

What was the male vs female numbers on this day in 2014?

I don't have that data for this comparable day specifically, but here are the racial and gender figures that I collected on various days back in 2014. The trend in them seemed to suggest that they were getting more female with time (which makes sense, given that 60% of black voters here are female), so if you cleave the 2% in 2018 who are unknown, the electorate is probably a bit more female compared to this day 4 years ago.

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

What was the male vs female numbers on this day in 2014?

I don't have that data for this comparable day specifically, but here are the racial and gender figures that I collected on various days back in 2014. The trend in them seemed to suggest that they were getting more female with time (which makes sense, given that 60% of black voters here are female), so if you cleave the 2% in 2018 who are unknown, the electorate is probably a bit more female compared to this day 4 years ago.

Good to hear!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

[Sumner 1868]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

[Inmate Trump]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

Yea I don’t think it takes away many votes from her.

[Adam Griffin]

The whole flag thing - which considering Kemp didn't bring it up, probably won't go anywhere - is one of those things that, yes, wouldn't be likely to create a huge impact. It's also worth noting that issues relating to Confederate crap in general still polls very well in GA (60%+) - 2 separate polls found that 40-45% of black voters oppose removing those monuments, just as an example. However, given that virtually nobody on Atlas both lives in and organizes Democrats in white rural Georgia, I think the absolute statements are unfounded.

There are still bubbas and hicks voting Democratic who love their stars and bars (as crazy as that may seem). I know plenty of them. They're odd-balls in their own right and their reasoning is often contradictory (or perhaps "nuanced"), but Atlas, Atlanta/state party Democrats and everybody else has been saying the same stuff for several cycles now ("there are none of these people left - who cares!?!") and yet we keep finding new bottoms for Democrats in rural counties all over the state time and time again. If they had been right when they started saying this, Democrats would already be winning solid majorities here. If anybody thinks that 20% white Democratic support in North Georgia can't drop to the 10% we see in the southern half of the state through dismissive attitudes, they're wrong.

What I think is an accurate absolute statement is that nobody is going to be motivated to switch their vote to Abrams based on this event, or suddenly find inspiration to turn out to support her who wasn't already planning on it. However much impact it would have, it would certainly be a net vote loss. Furthermore, even if any losses are small in raw totals, these voters are literally worth twice as much as these new voters (because they shift the margin by 2 rather than 1). I also shouldn't need to point out that even a very tiny number of voters could make the difference between a majority or plurality win, or a runoff or no runoff.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

Yea I don’t think it takes away many votes from her.

True, but I think it fires up Kemp's base to turnout.

[KingSweden]

I actually agree and applaud Abrams burning that stupid flag, but strategically I think it hurts her.

The people who care about the honor of Lost Cause trash were unlikely to vote for a Democrat and were never voting for a black woman period.

Yea I don’t think it takes away many votes from her.

Maybe, but it could take enough away to put it in a runoff. Depends on how much the story catches on I guess. Kemp not bringing it up probably makes a difference

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055075245743374336

Early vote returns must be brutal for Kemp. Now Drumpf is mentioning Stacey by name.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055075245743374336

Early vote returns must be brutal for Kemp. Now Drumpf is mentioning Stacey by name.

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

[libertpaulian]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

Are you only working in Newton, or have you canvassed nearby counties too?

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

Are you only working in Newton, or have you canvassed nearby counties too?

Rockdale, Henry, and southern Gwinnett. The people in our canvass universe are people who would normally not be tuned in to a midterm. Many of those who answer the door are excited for Stacey and taking their families to the polls with them. These are people I know the polls aren't considering or thinking about.

[libertpaulian]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

Are you only working in Newton, or have you canvassed nearby counties too?

Rockdale, Henry, and southern Gwinnett. The people in our canvass universe are people who would normally not be tuned in to a midterm. Many of those who answer the door are excited for Stacey and taking their families to the polls with them. These are people I know the polls aren't considering or thinking about.

If Abrams and Gillum are both elected, the political dynamics of the South will have been turned upside down.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

How does that breakdown compare to previous elections?

[Rookie Yinzer]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

How does that breakdown compare to previous elections?

I'm not sure. I just have access on VB to the information for the 2018 general election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A debate coach's detailed review of last night's debate (verdict: narrow Abrams win)

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

[_]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

RIP Gwinnett County GOP then

[Gass3268]

Giddy Up!

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1055187228723499009

[QAnonKelly]