Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1055586189082873861

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

She's appearing here in Forsyth County tomorrow morning.  That's quite something given the county's history (obviously, it's changed a great deal in recent decades).

[libertpaulian]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

Eh, there's ballsy, and then there's Russian Roulette.  Looks like Abrams is opting for the latter with that move.

[Podgy the Bear]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

She's appearing here in Forsyth County tomorrow morning.  That's quite something given the county's history (obviously, it's changed a great deal in recent decades).

This is what I like to see--her going on enemy turf.

[Bidenworth2020]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

I get it is really rep, but what is so crazy about this?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

I get it is really rep, but what is so crazy about this?

There’s nothing crazy about it. I think it’s cool and brave and a testament to how modern the Abrams campaign is.

[henster]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

[IceSpear]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

Will they? Even if she loses, if she does better than any Democrat has in Georgia in a decade, that says something in and of itself.

[Gass3268]

I'll let AG do a more detailed report when he as the time, but it's good to see the racial numbers stay the same, female % continue to go up, the electorate continue to get younger, and a higher % of the days vote come from folks who did not vote in 2014.

[Mr. Smith]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

If that were true, then she'd have no reason to go all over North-GA at all, and she wouldn't be making moves like going into Deep Red turf.

Also you have to consider what happens if Gillum wins [or even loses by less] while she doesn't. Clearly then she'd lose for being too much of a neolib sellout centrist hack failing to energize the base, all while Kemp perfectly mobilized his base.

[Calthrina950]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

Will they? Even if she loses, if she does better than any Democrat has in Georgia in a decade, that says something in and of itself.

Abrams will lose. She will come within 1 or 2 points, but I have a hard time seeing her clear 50%. Georgia just isn't there yet. Maybe in four more years, when demographics are more favorable. But her base turnout strategy will definitely become a model for Democrats going forward.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 99,329 valid votes were cast yesterday (Thursday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 944,499 votes: 37.03% of total 2014 turnout. We've essentially tied with 2014 early vote as of this update.

Early vote totals are 180% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 186% Wednesday).

Literally no change in the racial composition of the overall electorate from Wednesday. The electorate that voted Thursday was 60% white, 29% black and 11% other (was 61/28/11 on Wednesday). Thursday's electorate was just as female as the previous day (57%). With the shifts along racial lines slowing and then stopping as it did today, we may now be approaching a situation comparable to what happened in 2014 (where the white share of the electorate plunged by 6 points leading up to the end of EV).

Code:

White	566711	60.0% (0.0)
Black	276287	29.3% (0.0)
Latino	11454         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	11375         1.2% (0.0)
Other	78672         8.3% (0.0)

Female	511241	54.1% (+0.2)
Male		413668 	43.8% (-0.2)
Unknown	19590         2.1% (+0.1)

18-29	 58518	6.2%   (+0.2)
30-39	 73565	7.8%   (+0.2)
40-49       117873	12.5%  (+0.3)
50-64       301267	31.9%  (+0.1)
65+         374338      39.6%  (-0.8)
Unknown	 18938       2.0%   (0.0)

[Adam Griffin]

They're sending Pence to Dalton in the next few days, and Trump to Chattanooga: they must be worried about turnout here (or god forbid, support)!

[Continential]

Who has a better chance, Barrow or Abarms

[wbrocks67]

I mean, I guess the one good thing is the EV so far is Women +10. I'm just a bit deterred that Abrams apparently had a robust GOTV effort and I can't tell if these #s are good so far?

[Adam Griffin]

Who has a better chance, Barrow or Abarms

Barrow will pull a variety of votes that Abrams won't get (especially in the Onion Belt), but Republicans are more consistent at actually voting all the way down the ballot. Hard to say.

Valarie Wilson was the only Democrat in recent elections to actually not underperform (she got the exact same % of the vote as Carter in 2014 - 44.89% - and only 12k fewer votes), but that was almost certainly due to crossover support from teachers.

[libertpaulian]

Who has a better chance, Barrow or Abarms

Barrow will pull a variety of votes that Abrams won't get (especially in the Onion Belt), but Republicans are more consistent at actually voting all the way down the ballot. Hard to say.

Valarie Wilson was the only Democrat in recent elections to actually not underperform (she got the exact same % of the vote as Carter in 2014 - 44.89% - and only 12k fewer votes), but that was almost certainly due to crossover support from teachers.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Onion Belt?

[Adam Griffin]

I mean, I guess the one good thing is the EV so far is Women +10. I'm just a bit deterred that Abrams apparently had a robust GOTV effort and I can't tell if these #s are good so far?

The gender balance is about the same as it was this time 4 years ago, as is the black percentage - and in GA, usually those two are inextricably linked. Where the major differences exist as of now is in a) the number of those unclassified racially ("other"), who are going to more or less reflect newly-registered voters, b) the white percentage, which is 6 points lower than in 2014, c) those who didn't vote in 2014.

In 2014, the electorate was still like 66/28 at this point instead of 60/29, but in the final week of early voting, that shifted to 61/33. If a similar trend unfolds, we're in great shape.

If this is where the EV race breakdown more or less remains for the remainder of the period, then these numbers wouldn't be that impressive; hell, she might do worse than Carter in the EV simply given the lower black share. More realistically: unless there ended up being a lot more white Democrats in that mix or fewer whites than expected in the "other" category, Abrams would probably only eek out a nominal win in the EV (and of course likely get hammered in ED votes).

If you're Abrams, you're probably wanting a majority of votes to be cast early and to be winning them by high single digits (or more). That'd basically take something like a 56/34 final EV electorate, give or take.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Onion Belt?

Basically:

[Adam Griffin]

In regard to above though: the white vote has been stagnating for the past 3 days or so, suggesting that it's probably blown its load, so to speak. The question is whether there's a ton of reserve black voters who are going to show up in the final week like 2014.

I imagine Saturday and Sunday will produce some great daily numbers for Democrats. We might even see some movement today, depending, but the real trajectory of this should be obvious by the middle of next week at the latest. The weekend will provide some padding for Abrams, but won't necessarily be indicative of any trend.

[Gass3268]

In regard to above though: the white vote has been stagnating for the past 3 days or so, suggesting that it's probably blown its load, so to speak. The question is whether there's a ton of reserve black voters who are going to show up in the final week like 2014.

I imagine Saturday and Sunday will produce some great daily numbers for Democrats. We might even see some movement today, depending, but the real trajectory of this should be obvious by the middle of next week at the latest. The weekend will provide some padding for Abrams, but won't necessarily be indicative of any trend.

Souls to the Polls?

[Adam Griffin]

In regard to above though: the white vote has been stagnating for the past 3 days or so, suggesting that it's probably blown its load, so to speak. The question is whether there's a ton of reserve black voters who are going to show up in the final week like 2014.

I imagine Saturday and Sunday will produce some great daily numbers for Democrats. We might even see some movement today, depending, but the real trajectory of this should be obvious by the middle of next week at the latest. The weekend will provide some padding for Abrams, but won't necessarily be indicative of any trend.

Souls to the Polls?

Yep - but it's at each county's discretion. Most of the bigger counties offer some form of Sunday voting. If I recall correctly, a majority of the Democratic electorate lives in a county that offers it.

And this'll be the one guaranteed statewide Saturday EV day; some counties offer 2 or 3 Saturdays, but only 1 (tomorrow) is mandated by the state.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Rockdale, Henry, Clayton, Muscogee, Richmond, Bibb, and Chatham all have Sunday voting this week. I hope Abrams runs up the score big then.

[Virginiá]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

[Gass3268]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Ha, where is he at?