Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058570834678374400

According to McDonald, there are still approximately 88,000 unreturned mail ballots out there. If around 65% or more get returned, GA will break both 2012 (already done) and 2008 early voter totals.

[Sestak]

Breaking 2008?

That’s crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Breaking 2008?

That’s crazy.

To be fair, Georgia has like 1m more people and 700k more registered voters than in 2008.

[_]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058570834678374400

According to McDonald, there are still approximately 88,000 unreturned mail ballots out there. If around 65% or more get returned, GA will break both 2012 (already done) and 2008 early voter totals.

God damn Georgia, nice.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I can't wait to see the demographics on the voters from today. This is going to be good, I think.

[Adam Griffin]

I can't wait to see the demographics on the voters from today. This is going to be good, I think.

See McDonald's tweet above; we already have a sneak peek. Essentially, the white share dropped by the better part of a point and the kids gained 1 point in the electorate. I figure Georgia Votes will be dropping data any minute.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is going to win. 2014 Non-voters making up 38 percent of early vote is astounding. Are they all voting for Abrams? No. But only one candidate has put together an unprecedented field program to draw out people that don’t vote in midterms. I had two relatives in Savannah who hadn’t voted since 2012 texting me about casting their ballots for Abrams on Tuesday (they feared they were purged) and they haven’t even been canvassed by her team (they’re still registered at their childhood home). Abrams is building a movement that the polls won’t catch.

[Adam Griffin]

LAST DAY OF EARLY IN-PERSON VOTING:

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 243,244 valid votes were cast yesterday (Friday); the accepted ballot total stands at 2,073,320 votes: 81.29% of total 2014 turnout. By comparison, around 137,000 people voted on this day in 2014.

Early vote totals are 121% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 128% Thursday).

The white share of the electorate dropped substantially today (primarily due to "others"). The electorate that voted Friday was 51% white, 32% black and 17% other (was 56/30/14 on Thursday). Friday's electorate was 57% female, compared to 56% on Thursday. 

Currently, 20.0% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 18.4% on Thursday). On Friday, 32% of all voters were under 40 (compared to 26% on Thursday).

Code:

White	1185716	57.2% (-0.8)
Black	626967	30.2% (+0.2)
Latino	31208         1.5% (+0.1)
Asian	28571         1.4% (+0.1)
Other	200858       9.7% (+0.4)

Female	1136205	54.8% (+0.1)
Male		877412	42.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	59703       2.9% (+0.2)

18-29	188104	9.1%   (+0.8)
30-39	226923	10.9%   (+0.8)
40-49       324528	15.7%  (+0.7)
50-64       656604	31.7%  (-0.4)
65+         619127      29.9%  (-2.0)
Unknown	 58034      2.8%    (+0.2)

[libertpaulian]

LAST DAY OF EARLY IN-PERSON VOTING:

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 243,244 valid votes were cast yesterday (Friday); the accepted ballot total stands at 2,073,320 votes: 81.29% of total 2014 turnout. By comparison, around 137,000 people voted on this day in 2014.

Early vote totals are 121% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 128% Thursday).

The white share of the electorate dropped substantially today (primarily due to "others"). The electorate that voted Friday was 51% white, 32% black and 17% other (was 56/30/14 on Thursday). Friday's electorate was 57% female, compared to 56% on Thursday. 

Currently, 20.0% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 18.4% on Thursday). On Friday, 32% of all voters were under 40 (compared to 26% on Thursday).

Code:

White	1185716	57.2% (-0.8)
Black	626967	30.2% (+0.2)
Latino	31208         1.5% (+0.1)
Asian	28571         1.4% (+0.1)
Other	200858       9.7% (+0.4)

Female	1136205	54.8% (+0.1)
Male		877412	42.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	59703       2.9% (+0.2)

18-29	188104	9.1%   (+0.8)
30-39	226923	10.9%   (+0.8)
40-49       324528	15.7%  (+0.7)
50-64       656604	31.7%  (-0.4)
65+         619127      29.9%  (-2.0)
Unknown	 58034      2.8%    (+0.2)

Well, it didn't drop to 56%, but 57% is pretty good, IMO.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

17% "other" today sounds good - that should mean a lot of new registrants.

[Adam Griffin]

And here's the GA Votes numbers like I did yesterday (where each group's %s show their share of that vote type's electorate, rather than their share of the 3 types):

Full-size image

[Adam Griffin]

I don't usually track these things from year to year to know if it's odd or not, but...of those who voted early this year (who also voted early in 2014), the number is only 70% of the 2014 total (670k/950k).

Did that many people die over the past 4 years? Is there a ton of people just not going to vote this time? Is there some reason they're waiting until Election Day? Is it late and I'm missing something blatantly obvious here?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And here's the GA Votes numbers like I did yesterday (where each group's %s show their share of that vote type's electorate, rather than their share of the 3 types):

Full-size image

Yeah, that is a much better way to do the crosstabs, thanks. Very counterintuitive the way he does them on georgiavotes.com

[libertpaulian]

And here's the GA Votes numbers like I did yesterday (where each group's %s show their share of that vote type's electorate, rather than their share of the 3 types):

Full-size image

Yeah, that is a much better way to do the crosstabs, thanks. Very counterintuitive the way he does them on georgiavotes.com

The fact that nearly 2/5 of early voters are non-voters (at least in 2014) and a majority of them are non-white...that's pretty damned good for Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

[Dr. Arch]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

[Inmate Trump]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

This thread is confusing.  Either things look really good for her or pretty underwhelming.

[Adam Griffin]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

This thread is confusing.  Either things look really good for her or pretty underwhelming.

Welcome to early vote #analysis!

[Dr. Arch]

If Abrams gets 95% of blacks, 27% of whites and 70% of the rest in early voting, that'll give her a 8-9 point lead (53% of the EV). If EV ends up being two-thirds of the electorate, she can lose the ED vote by 10 points and still skirt by right at 50%.

(53% * 0.67) + (44% * 0.33) = 50.03%

This of course has yet to include the anywhere from 20-50k mail ballots that'll likely be returned over the next 4 days.

Things are looking really good for Abrams.

This thread is confusing.  Either things look really good for her or pretty underwhelming.

Welcome to early vote #analysis!

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

[Adam Griffin]

Final update for this one.

Since 10/31:
White -> Black: Wilkinson

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Did anyone see the interview with a Kemp supporter on MSNBC just now? It was ridiculous.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did anyone see the interview with a Kemp supporter on MSNBC just now? It was ridiculous.

Nope.  Details?

[PSOL]

U.S. courts rule against Georgia on voter suppression cases

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-georgia/u-s-courts-rule-against-georgia-on-voter-suppression-cases-idUSKCN1N72HE

[Podgy the Bear]

Did anyone see the interview with a Kemp supporter on MSNBC just now? It was ridiculous.

I saw it.  Her response on how voter suppression really doesn't exist in Georgia was amazing.  Boy--the AM Reid panelists (articulate AA women) were steaming!