Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

2014 non-voters continue to grow!

Meeting AG Eric Holder at a Henry County canvass launch this Sunday.

[Adam Griffin]

Here are the VBM totals as of yesterday (Thursday) for every county, sorted by number of raw ballots returned:

[Adam Griffin]

And an update showing the percentage of mail ballots returned relative to the total VBM stats in 2014 for each county.

% of VBM Returned (Share of 2014), As of October 4, 2018

Statewide total for 10/4: 24.61%




Here's the same map, but showing which counties have a higher returned ballot percentage (as a share of 2014) than the state as a whole, and which have a lower returned percentage. Of course, there are a couple of dozen counties that haven't received any ballots yet (likely because they haven't been mailed) or have just started receiving in the past day or two.

It's also worth noting that between the two groups (green/above avg & red/below avg), there isn't a real meaningful difference in the 2016 results as of right now: the green counties combined were won by Trump by around 4.5 points; the red by 5.5 points.

There does, however, appear to be some correlation between a county's whiteness and whether it has a high return rate relative to 2014 at this point (which may indicate success by Democrats in the VBM campaign - or might just be indicative of whiter counties getting a later start at mailing out ballots). On the other hand, there are several urban clusters that got a late start or have yet to even mail them out (Fulton; Bibb, Muscogee, Dougherty).

(Just to illustrate how powerful the northern burbs are, if you take Bartow, Cherokee and Forsyth out of the green group, Clinton won it by a couple of thousand votes)

% of VBM Returned (Above/Below Statewide Avg), As of October 4, 2018

Statewide total for 10/4: 24.61%

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty big news - we've had "top-ticket" downballot candidates not raise a million in recent cycles. She spoke at our dinner and she gives one hell of a stump speech!

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[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp raised $12 million, Abrams $10.2 million July 1-September 30.

For the final stretch, Kemp has $6.6 million COH, Abrams has $4.9 million

Link

[Adam Griffin]

Kemp raised $12 million, Abrams $10.2 million July 1-September 30.

For the final stretch, Kemp has $6.6 million COH, Abrams has $4.9 million

Link

It's looking increasingly possible that Kemp and/or Abrams can beat the record GA gubernatorial fundraising haul by Election Day (Roy Barnes in 2002; ~$20m). As it stands, Kemp has raised $16.9m and Abrams $16.2m.

Of course, ask Barnes how well that worked out for him - he outraised his opponents in both 2002 and 2010.

[KingSweden]

What is it that southern PSC’s do, anyways? They seem to be the only states that have them

[Adam Griffin]

What is it that southern PSC’s do, anyways? They seem to be the only states that have them

They essentially oversee regulations, consumer protections and procedures relating to telecommunications and energy companies. It's sort of like a combination of a state-level FCC & DoE. Probably the best example in your state would be the WUTC, except here, they are elected instead of appointed.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate remain largely unchanged from yesterday. An additional 3,415 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 28,997 votes.

Code:

White	13075	45.1% (-0.1)
Black	12038	41.5% (-0.1)
Latino	647           2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	810	         2.8%  (0.0)
Other	2427	         8.4%  (+0.1)

Female	16926	58.4% (+0.1)
Male		11633 	40.1% (-0.1)
Unknown	438	        1.5%   (0.0)

18-29	 1708	5.9%   (+0.3)
30-39	 1462	5.0%   (+0.1)
40-49	 2098	7.2%   (+0.1)
50-64	 6370	22.0%  (+0.1)
65+         16963        58.5%  (-0.6)
Unknown	  396	        1.4%   (+0.1)

[henster]

Surprised to see Abrams outraised, I guess the fundraising caps are pretty lax in GA.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How many of these voters are new voters or non-2014 voters

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http://georgiavotes.com/

[QAnonKelly]

Does early voting usually skew that non white?

[Virginiá]

Does early voting usually skew that non white?

Nope. This was discussed more 3-6 pages back (or so).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299211.msg6437692#msg6437692

At this point, it was significantly more white in 2014.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

One thing that is really interesting about the early voting so far is the gender gap (not in support, but in turnout).

Women are about 51% of the overall population (probably about the same in GA), but so far 58.4% of voters in GA are women, 40.1% are men, and 1.5% are unknown. That is a 1.45 to 1 ratio!!!

For mail ballots, that probably skews somewhat more female than other votes and early votes are likely to, because it (I presume) skews old, and women have longer average life expectancy than men.

But even with that, it is an incredible turnout gap by sex. I do not expect it to hold at that sort of absurd ratio, but the fact that it is so high now does suggest that by the time everyone votes, I would bet the sex composition of the electorate will probably settle at an unusually high ratio of women to men compared to previous elections.

And... if there is a high gender gap in vote preference combined with a high gender gap in turnout, your imagination can fill in the rest.


Just to put some more context on that, this is the sort of gender gap in composition of the electorate that you might expect from a Democratic primary in the South, not a General election.

[QAnonKelly]

One thing that is really interesting about the early voting so far is the gender gap (not in support, but in turnout).

Women are about 51% of the overall population (probably about the same in GA), but so far 58.4% of voters in GA are women, 40.1% are men, and 1.5% are unknown. That is a 1.45 to 1 ratio!!!

For mail ballots, that probably skews somewhat more female than other votes and early votes are likely to, because it (I presume) skews old, and women have longer average life expectancy than men.

But even with that, it is an incredible turnout gap by sex. I do not expect it to hold at that sort of absurd ratio, but the fact that it is so high now does suggest that by the time everyone votes, I would bet the sex composition of the electorate will probably settle at an unusually high ratio of women to men compared to previous elections.

And... if there is a high gender gap in vote preference combined with a high gender gap in turnout, your imagination can fill in the rest.


Just to put some more context on that, this is the sort of gender gap in composition of the electorate that you might expect from a Democratic primary in the South, not a General election.

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

No doubt, but regardless it is still really impressive and striking. What would be really interesting is to see the %s black women/black men/white women/white men.

[QAnonKelly]

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

No doubt, but regardless it is still really impressive and striking. What would be really interesting is to see the %s black women/black men/white women/white men.

White women probably would heavily rely on where the votes come from. Abrams probably slaughters Kemp with white women in the core Atlanta area (especially women with degrees) but would struggle in the more rural / less educated parts of the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AJC takes a look at the two Georgia counties with the largest partisan shifts in recent years: Gwinnett for the Democrats, Brooks for the Republicans.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/meet-the-two-georgia-counties-with-the-state-biggest-partisan-shifts/IW2xbxGHKOpimeIfXvKhiO/

[Rookie Yinzer]

The AJC takes a look at the two Georgia counties with the largest partisan shifts in recent years: Gwinnett for the Democrats, Brooks for the Republicans.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/meet-the-two-georgia-counties-with-the-state-biggest-partisan-shifts/IW2xbxGHKOpimeIfXvKhiO/

I'm expecting an eye-popping margin out of Gwinnett County in favor of Abrams. The House districts up for grabs along with Abrams's sleek ground game is going to wallop Republican turnout here.

[QAnonKelly]

The AJC takes a look at the two Georgia counties with the largest partisan shifts in recent years: Gwinnett for the Democrats, Brooks for the Republicans.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/meet-the-two-georgia-counties-with-the-state-biggest-partisan-shifts/IW2xbxGHKOpimeIfXvKhiO/

I'm expecting an eye-popping margin out of Gwinnett County in favor of Abrams. The House districts up for grabs along with Abrams's sleek ground game is going to wallop Republican turnout here.

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

[Virginiá]

Just curious, but what county seats are up in Gwinnett? Just part or all of the county commission?

That particular body seems ripe for some gains.

[Adam Griffin]

One thing that is really interesting about the early voting so far is the gender gap (not in support, but in turnout).

Women are about 51% of the overall population (probably about the same in GA), but so far 58.4% of voters in GA are women, 40.1% are men, and 1.5% are unknown. That is a 1.45 to 1 ratio!!!

For mail ballots, that probably skews somewhat more female than other votes and early votes are likely to, because it (I presume) skews old, and women have longer average life expectancy than men.

But even with that, it is an incredible turnout gap by sex. I do not expect it to hold at that sort of absurd ratio, but the fact that it is so high now does suggest that by the time everyone votes, I would bet the sex composition of the electorate will probably settle at an unusually high ratio of women to men compared to previous elections.

And... if there is a high gender gap in vote preference combined with a high gender gap in turnout, your imagination can fill in the rest.


Just to put some more context on that, this is the sort of gender gap in composition of the electorate that you might expect from a Democratic primary in the South, not a General election.

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

What's really interesting is that the total VBM gender balance basically reflects the usual Democratic gender balance in Georgia; usually 58% or so of the Democratic GA bloc is female. This is, as you've already pointed out, due to the high incarceration and disenfranchisement rates of black males in GA (1 in 4, to be precise; 1 in 8 black females fall into the same category). Among black voters as a whole, the share who are female usually fall in the 60-65% range depending on county.

The thing is, to have female numbers overall that are this high, there has to be higher than average female participation across the board (among independents, white Democrats, non-white Democrats, and even Republicans)...unless you assume black females are comprising an insane share of the black electorate not seen before in GA.

Basically, if you assume 65% of the black electorate is female, then 53% of non-black voters have to be female at present. That's a large number/assumption for the black electorate; if you lower the former figure, then the latter figure obviously has to be even higher.

[Adam Griffin]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Unless her performance in rural GA as a whole is unprecedentedly strong, she'll likely need to win Gwinnett by double-digits (or damn near it) to have a chance at winning a majority.

See my benchmarks:

Margin by County
Swing by County

[Virginiá]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Unless her performance in rural GA as a whole is unprecedentedly strong, she'll likely need to win Gwinnett by double-digits (or damn near it) to have a chance at winning a majority.

See my benchmarks:

Margin by County
Swing by County

Could you add these to the main post? Other users and myself may be looking for them when the day of reckoning is upon us.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

Yes. I believe Carolyn Bourdeaux will win the portion of Gwinnett inside GA-07 by one or two points and Abrams will match or outrun her. Since that doesn't include the heavily black and heavily Democratic portion of Gwinnett that is in GA-04 (where Abrams will massively outperform Hillary IMO), I think Abrams will win the county by more than Hillary did.

Just curious, but what county seats are up in Gwinnett? Just part or all of the county commission?

That particular body seems ripe for some gains.

Districts 2 and 4 of the County Commission and School Board.

In the commissioner's race the Democratic candidates in 2 and 4 would be the first Asian (and openly LGBTQ) and African-American elected in their respective districts.

Also we have several competitive state House races and a State Senate race in Gwinnett.

HD 97 and HD 105 which were won by Trump by 13 and 4 points respectively.

HD 105, 107, and 108 which were won by Clinton by 7, 12, 0.5 points respectively.

SD 48 (vacated by David Shafer who lost his bid for LG) which was won by Clinton by 6 points.

You also have Sam Park (D) defending his seat in HD 101 after knocking off the incumbent in 2016. He won by 4, Hillary won by 13.