Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I highly doubt Kemp is getting 11% of the black vote.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I don't know what to make of this.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

What will happen (at least this is the proposed solution, I don't think it's final yet) is that the ballots with mismatched signatures will be treated as provisional and the voters notified.  They will have up to 7 days after the election to verify their identity/residence, as is done with provisional ballots cast at the polls.

[QAnonKelly]

I highly doubt Kemp is getting 11% of the black vote.

Had the same thought

[RI]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

What will happen (at least this is the proposed solution, I don't think it's final yet) is that the ballots with mismatched signatures will be treated as provisional and the voters notified.  They will have up to 7 days after the election to verify their identity/residence, as is done with provisional ballots cast at the polls.

Seems fair, I guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1055209604525842452

[Suburbia]

I highly doubt Kemp is getting 11% of the black vote.

Not all black voters think the same.

[libertpaulian]

I highly doubt Kemp is getting 11% of the black vote.

Not all black voters think the same.

In a Democratic-friendly year with a black person at the top of the ticket?  She's going to be getting Obama numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

As usual, don't trust or read into crosstabs too much.

• Kemp isn't getting 11% of the black vote
• Abrams isn't getting 31% of the white vote
• Black voters are gonna be more than 25% of voters

[Calthrina950]

As usual, don't trust or read into crosstabs too much.

• Kemp isn't getting 11% of the black vote
• Abrams isn't getting 31% of the white vote
• Black voters are gonna be more than 25% of voters

If Abrams manages to win an absolute majority next month or in December, what would be a plausible vote breakdown by race?

[Adam Griffin]

As usual, don't trust or read into crosstabs too much.

• Kemp isn't getting 11% of the black vote
• Abrams isn't getting 31% of the white vote
• Black voters are gonna be more than 25% of voters

If Abrams manages to win an absolute majority next month or in December, what would be a plausible vote breakdown by race?

95% of blacks, comprising 31% of electorate
25% of whites, comprising 59% of electorate
60% of the rest, comprising 10% of electorate

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 104,009 valid votes were cast yesterday (Wednesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 845,170 votes: 33.14% of total 2014 turnout. Possibly, we'll exceed the total 2014 early vote totals (945k) with Thursday's update.

Early vote totals are 186% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 194% Tuesday).

The white share of the vote seems to have stabilized. The electorate that voted Wednesday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other: the exact same as the previous day. Wednesday's electorate is continuing a trend of becoming more female (57% of voters; 55% on Tuesday). While we are seeing the increased female vote in line with the trend from 2014, we have yet to see the increased non-white vote.

Code:

White	507329	60.0% (+0.1)
Black	247553	29.3% (-0.1)
Latino	10147         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	10202         1.2% (0.0)
Other	69940         8.3% (0.0)

Female	455915	53.9% (+0.2)
Male		372070 	44.0% (-0.3)
Unknown	17186         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 50781	6.0%   (+0.1)
30-39	 63992	7.6%   (+0.3)
40-49       103189	12.2%   (+0.2)
50-64       269090	31.8%  (+0.1)
65+         341514      40.4%  (-0.7)
Unknown	 16605       2.0%   (+0.1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

What will happen (at least this is the proposed solution, I don't think it's final yet) is that the ballots with mismatched signatures will be treated as provisional and the voters notified.  They will have up to 7 days after the election to verify their identity/residence, as is done with provisional ballots cast at the polls.

The proposed solution has been made official by the judge.  Slight correction to my earlier post: the deadline is the Monday after the election.

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

[Doimper]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

[Inmate Trump]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

Polls show him winning, but other than that, I really have no clue.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

He's not doing anything but relying on the partisan lean of Forsyth County to bail him out. Bourdeaux is outraising him by a good bit and is on the air here, one of my friends has been canvassing for her in Lawrenceville, her campaign has a very disciplined field program. I would bet money on Bourdeaux before McBath. I still think both will fall short unfortunately.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

I'd call it Lean R at this point.  Although Woodall is still the favorite, I think it's possible that the Abrams turnout operation will bring out enough Democrats in Gwinnett County to push Bourdeaux over the top.

[QAnonKelly]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

It’s just too well gerrymandered to bust through just yet. Once the maps get redrawn, the D should win. Bordeaux is a great recruit tho

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Well, you’re certainly bullish on Abrams' odds. I assume you simply forgot to mention Dooly, right?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thoughts on the county map for this race? Will it be similar to 2016, but with Abrams flipping a few counties (like Twigs and Dooly) in the Black Belt? I don’t think Kemp is the right Republican to win Cobb in a year like this.

Clinton 2016 + Twiggs, Wilkinson, Peach, Chattahooche, Quitman, Webster, Baker, Mitchell, and Early.

Screven, Wilkes, and Meriwether are tossups.

Well, you’re certainly bullish on Abrams' odds. I assume you simply forgot to mention Dooly, right?

I did. Add that too.

All of the counties I mentioned are counties Abrams campaign plan to win.

[wbrocks67]

JFC, you have the possibility of sending the first female black governor in the country. How is the black vote only 29%?!

[GeorgiaModerate]

JFC, you have the possibility of sending the first female black governor in the country. How is the black vote only 29%?!

I believe that's very close to the percentage of black voters among all RV.

[libertpaulian]

JFC, you have the possibility of sending the first female black governor in the country. How is the black vote only 29%?!

Early VBM tends to skew white and old, although Abrams is trying to fix that.