Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow now at 45.4%, still a quarter of the vote outstanding. He's not going to win, but so much for Griff's prediction that Raff was going to win by 12 and IceSpear's doom and gloom. This is a decent performance, way better than the last run of this in 2008.

I didn't say the GOP was going to win by 12: I said that the underperformance was 12 points in 2008 and that tonight's results could be close to that. I was on record in the prediction thread with a 55-45 (plus or minus a point) and my internal party projections were 54-46, for what it's worth.

Wulfric's reading comprehension is about as good as his projections.

By the way, R+6-8 would still be an absolutely godawful result considering the general election result was R+0.4.

Well, what can you expect?

Though I would point out that the Gov race in November was R+1.4 in terms of margin (not sure if that's what you meant or not).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP calls it

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

[IceSpear]

Barrow now at 45.4%, still a quarter of the vote outstanding. He's not going to win, but so much for Griff's prediction that Raff was going to win by 12 and IceSpear's doom and gloom. This is a decent performance, way better than the last run of this in 2008.

I didn't say the GOP was going to win by 12: I said that the underperformance was 12 points in 2008 and that tonight's results could be close to that. I was on record in the prediction thread with a 55-45 (plus or minus a point) and my internal party projections were 54-46, for what it's worth.

Wulfric's reading comprehension is about as good as his projections.

By the way, R+6-8 would still be an absolutely godawful result considering the general election result was R+0.4.

Well, what can you expect?

Though I would point out that the Gov race in November was R+1.4 in terms of margin (not sure if that's what you meant or not).

Nah, I was referring to the SoS race.

[Antonio the Sixth]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

[Adam Griffin]

It's actually kind of amazing that this is going to end up being potentially a 3-4 point race (i.e. still competitive), and that there are still pathways to beat oneself up over despite the fact that in a large portion of the state, Barrow did worse than Abrams, who did worse than Clinton, who did worse than Obama...

[Podgy the Bear]

It's now 53-47 with remaining vote from the metro Atlanta counties.  Cobb is very close, and Barrow may end up winning there, though barely.  The total voter dropoff from last month is about 60 percent.

Statewide, it will probably finish at 52-48, which is much better than I thought.  Still, Barrow's south Atlanta performance was quite poor, especially in the overall vote (example, Clayton gave over 80000 votes in November to the Democrats, down to 25000 tonight; Henry from 56000 to 18000).  It would have been even closer if there was a better turnout in these sizable counties.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Still, Barrow's south Atlanta performance was quite poor, especially in the overall vote (example, Clayton gave over 80000 votes in November to the Democrats, down to 25000 tonight; Henry from 56000 to 18000).  It would have been even closer if there was a better turnout in these sizable counties.

It's the suburbanization of poverty. These counties are getting bluer because more low income African-Americans are being priced out of Atlanta and DeKalb County not because of college educated white liberals moving there or former Republicans jumping ship. The low turnout is not surprising. Abrams spent months (years in some cases) cultivating relationships with this cohort, many of whom have to jump through obstacles to cast their ballot. I resent people insinuating the drop off was because of "lazy asses". The dynamics of this race was much different from the general: fewer early voting dates, early voting places in "white" areas, simply not finding the time to take off to go vote for someone who has never been in their community. Voters are not dogs. They don't just go vote because you bark at them.

[IceSpear]

It's pretty funny that these days, even in a bad performance, Dems are still carrying Gwinnett County and almost carrying Cobb County.

But I'm sure they'll flip back in 2020 when Trump inevitably rebounds in the suburbs!

[lfromnj]

It's pretty funny that these days, even in a bad performance, Dems are still carrying Gwinnett County and almost carrying Cobb County.

But I'm sure they'll flip back in 2020 when Trump inevitably rebounds in the suburbs!

Yeah dw everything will go back to normal and Elliot county will vote democrat once again for another 100 years.

[Adam Griffin]

So based on what is left in Fulton (Cobb has 1 precinct, Dekalb and Gwinnett are essentially all in), it looks like we'll lose by 35-40k votes with around 1.5m votes cast.

In many ways, this was an odd election with different patterns that made it hard to guesstimate as the results poured in.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's pretty funny that these days, even in a bad performance, Dems are still carrying Gwinnett County and almost carrying Cobb County.

But I'm sure they'll flip back in 2020 when Trump inevitably rebounds in the suburbs!

It's actually possible that Barrow does better than Abrams overall while doing 13 pts worse in Gwinnett county.

Not sure wtf happened here, lol.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And it's at 52%-48%. Fulton at 329/373 in. Still that 1 precinct in Cobb left. Nothing else.

[MT Treasurer]

That some people are still convinced that Georgia is less likely to flip in 2020 than Iowa is beyond me.

Also:

50.9% Raffensperger (R)
49.1% Barrow (D)

Changing this to 51.4-48.6 Raffensperger, but basically still a 51/49 kind of race. I don’t quite buy that there will be a dramatic Democratic collapse here.

Looks like this will turn out to be pretty accurate, no?

[Adam Griffin]

And it's at 52%-48%. Fulton at 329/373 in. Still that 1 precinct in Cobb left. Nothing else.

Apparently the big counties wait to report their mail results. Barrow will net another 20k votes out of Fulton via mail alone.

This is why Raff is still winning ABM by 3k votes at the moment.

[Podgy the Bear]

Just another 18,000 votes, and Stacey Abrams would have made the runoff.  And I believe we would have been talking about another result tonight.  It would have been supercharged on both sides, but I would have liked our odds.

As Scarlett O'Hara said, "Tomorrow is another day...time to move on to fight for 2020..."

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

[Adam Griffin]

While a couple of counties are still incomplete, here's a swing map between the GE-GOV and the GE-SOS runoff:

Swing, 2018 GE vs 2018 GE Runoff (Non-Atlas Colors)

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Georgia 2008 Senate Runoff - R+14
Tonight's Runoff (98% in) - R+4

Ten point drop in 10 short years. If the state continues changing at the same rate, a runoff will be winnable by 2023. So much for Georgia runoffs being "death forever", lol.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

[Bidenworth2020]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nobody cares that Barrow is a Demosaur. He lost because the DPG’s canvass operation crumbled to nothing after Abrams suspended her campaign and Barrow had no credibility/name ID in the Metro to pick up Abrams’s momentum. The race had no star power and the low propensity voters Abrams inspired didn’t know Barrow from a hole in the wall and went about their day.

[Adam Griffin]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening