Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.

Really? Maybe to people that already hated her, I live in deep Abrams country and the consensus is that Kemp cheated. LOL. I don’t think anyone that voted for her is going to vote against her in two or four years. We’ll see.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Does anyone have any idea why Barrow did so horribly around Atlanta, but at the same time did better than Abrams in Fulton and Dekalb?

[lfromnj]

Does anyone have any idea why Barrow did so horribly around Atlanta, but at the same time did better than Abrams in Fulton and Dekalb?

In the burbs its mostly demo changes with whites voting 35% to mabe 40%.

In the actual city the actual #resistance is fired up and its one area where whites vote dem in the deep south.(MS to SC)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.

Really? Maybe to people that already hated her, I live in deep Abrams country and the consensus is that Kemp cheated. LOL. I don’t think anyone that voted for her is going to vote against her in two or four years. We’ll see.

I can only speak for myself, but the way she handled herself after losing really left a negative impression with me b/c she seemed to be making a point of refusing to even acknowledge that it was a legitimate election.  I mean, what Kemp did was indefensible (to say the least), but he didn’t steal the election.  At the end of the day, Abrams lost and then went MIA during the SoS runoff (and I think Barrow might well have won if Abrams also made the runoff).  Abrams may well be our Senate or Governor nominee down the road, but I think she’s damaged goods at this point.  I think a rematch with Kemp would end about as well as Vincent Sheheen’s rematch with Haley did.

On a different note, Barrow’s performance was actually pretty impressive considering the circumstances.  Hopefully, we haven’t heard the last of him.

[Zaybay]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

[ON Progressive]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

Welcome to Atlas!

[Rookie Yinzer]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

It would be one thing if she was in court challenging the results, but she acknowledged he will be our legal Governor and has wished him well. She owes him nothing more. Honestly the support for her in Metro Atlanta and other deep blue bastions will grow more fervent as she continues to position herself as a Voting Rights martyr. Watch the 2020 Senate candidate cling close to her.

[lfromnj]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

It would be one thing if she was in court challenging the results, but she acknowledged he will be our legal Governor and has wished him well. She owes him nothing more. Honestly the support for her in Metro Atlanta and other deep blue bastions will grow more fervent as she continues to position herself as a Voting Rights martyr. Watch the 2020 Senate candidate cling close to her.

such a voting rights martyr she wasted 2 weeks not conceding instead of helping Barrow the dem nominee for SOS.  Its clear if she actually told people in Atlanta there was a runoff Barrow could have won.

[Rookie Yinzer]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

It would be one thing if she was in court challenging the results, but she acknowledged he will be our legal Governor and has wished him well. She owes him nothing more. Honestly the support for her in Metro Atlanta and other deep blue bastions will grow more fervent as she continues to position herself as a Voting Rights martyr. Watch the 2020 Senate candidate cling close to her.

such a voting rights martyr she wasted 2 weeks not conceding instead of helping Barrow the dem nominee for SOS.  Its clear if she actually told people in Atlanta there was a runoff Barrow could have won.

Damn- y’all realize John Barrow was the candidate right? The fact of the matter is, what Abrams gave him (her endorsement in her last speech, tweets, and her face on mailers) is probably all John Barrow wanted. He completely avoided Abrams during the duration of the campaign, only appearing with her ONCE publicly (at the state Democratic convention in August). During her bus tour, ALL of the down ballot candidates popped up at various bus stops EXCEPT John Barrow. His goal was always to be carried by Abrams’s strong margins out of Metro ATL and the cities, and not get massacred in East Georgia. He has never used the forceful language on voting rights like Abrams has so why would he make the campaign all about her in the final stretch? It would have been completely antithetical to the race he has ran for the past 18 months. Quite frankly, Abrams’s performance in November helped pull him into the runoff. He was more than capable of closing the deal himself.

[Virginiá]

It's time to solve the Mystery of the 100,000 Missing Votes

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/time-solve-the-mystery-the-100-000-missing-votes/nEYXrcGW8et8esyVL6W4QM/

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[Pericles]

Somewhat surprised Raffensperger only won by 4. Guess Democrats may have had an actual shot here if things had gone a bit differently.

[Adam Griffin]

Last time I encourage field money be spent in a runoff on Latino voters

[Adam Griffin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_Viking95/status/1070385432607764480

[Adam Griffin]

Anyway, the map - at first glance, in terms of swings compared to November and other recent elections - looks kind of ridiculous, with over- and under-performances seeming odd, too. However, these comments are probably at the core of explaining things:

With regard to the broader map/performance:

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In places where we improved/slumped outside of metro:

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In places where we improved/slumped in metro:

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And I'll just throw this one in because I like starting fights

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[Calthrina950]

I think that Georgia is still out of reach for Democrats in 2020.

2022 and 2024...maybe.

Kind of why I want Abrams to go for a Governor rematch instead of a Senate run. Georgia’s inelasticity makes it easier for her to weather a Democratic midterm if it comes to that (Carter did respectful for someone running in the Deep South while Obama was Prez). I’d rather Teresa Tomlinson or Scott Holcomb take the gamble in 2020. If they kick Perdue out, great, if they don’t, eh. Abrams has to be very careful about her next move. Another statewide loss will hamper her political ambitions.

I sort of feel like her actions post election haven't put her in a good light.

Really? Maybe to people that already hated her, I live in deep Abrams country and the consensus is that Kemp cheated. LOL. I don’t think anyone that voted for her is going to vote against her in two or four years. We’ll see.

I can only speak for myself, but the way she handled herself after losing really left a negative impression with me b/c she seemed to be making a point of refusing to even acknowledge that it was a legitimate election.  I mean, what Kemp did was indefensible (to say the least), but he didn’t steal the election.  At the end of the day, Abrams lost and then went MIA during the SoS runoff (and I think Barrow might well have won if Abrams also made the runoff).  Abrams may well be our Senate or Governor nominee down the road, but I think she’s damaged goods at this point.  I think a rematch with Kemp would end about as well as Vincent Sheheen’s rematch with Haley did.

On a different note, Barrow’s performance was actually pretty impressive considering the circumstances.  Hopefully, we haven’t heard the last of him.

For the most part, I agree with this.

[Adam Griffin]

And since the margins were nearly identical, here's a swing map comparing the 2018 Primary to the 2018 Runoff:

Swing, '18 Primary vs '18 GE Runoff



Given how parts of the Belt and South GA skew wildly in favor of Democratic primary voting habits (due to Dixiecrats, popular local elected Dems, "since dirt" voters, etc), some wild swings there is to be expected. I'd say, in terms of trying to extract actual voter preference shifts from primary-runoff swings, you might look at the map as such (though to be fair, primary voting habits are skewed to some degree in just about every part of GA due to one party or the other dominating local affairs):

[lfromnj]

yeah its clear that the #resistance was fired up for the runoff
Look at Ga 6th vs 7th
Ga7th is majority minority with only 44% white while Ga 6th is 60 percent white. Abrams wn the 6th by 3.5 points and the 7th by 1.5 points. Yet Barrow still won the 6th by a point by virtue of the large white liberal base there. Meanwhile in the 7th he lost it by 12 points.

[IceSpear]

You guys act like:

1. People will care about this in two years(or 4) time

2. That people cared about this to begin with

Welcome to Atlas!

[Adam Griffin]

It's time to solve the Mystery of the 100,000 Missing Votes

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/time-solve-the-mystery-the-100-000-missing-votes/nEYXrcGW8et8esyVL6W4QM/

I just ran the figures and HOLY S[INKS]T:

Apparently their complaints center around DRE votes - they claimed that there was no dropoff out of line with paper ballots (i.e. provisionals and mail ballots), and boy were they right!

I'll post the more detailed data later, but: if you take an average of the raw vote received by all Democratic candidates (excluding Lt Gov) and compare it to Amico's total...

• In paper ballots, Amico did better than the other nine candidates' average in 145/159 counties
• In the remaining 14 counties, the dropoff was less than one point compared to the average in all but 1 county (Jenkins)
• In DRE ballots, Amico only did better than the other nine candidates' average in 1 county (Bartow)

[Adam Griffin]

So, yeah, basically: all of the dropoff in the LTGOV race came from DRE machines/electronic voting, and none of the dropoff came from paper ballots.

Here is the spreadsheet with all of this data (relevant dropoff figures can be found on the far right)

Another way of looking at it:

Amico's raw vote was in between 99-102% of the average non-Lieutenant Governor Dem candidate in all but 2 counties in the paper ballots, and between 93-99% of the average non-Lieutenant Governor Dem candidate in all but 5 counties in the electronic ballots.

In most counties, Amico got more votes than the average Democrat in paper ballots, which would fit completely with usual downballot dropoff trends (seeing as how she was #2 on the ballot). Yet in the DRE voting, she only managed to do that in 1 county (Bartow) out of 159.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a weird story.  We apparently have an AWOL state representative.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/searching-for-stover-georgia-state-representative-reportedly-no-longer-in-united-states/85-b4457f06-9b15-46ce-a0f9-42b19d20306b

[RINO Tom]

How long has "Demosaur" been around?  I feel like I have never heard it until this year, LOL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How long has "Demosaur" been around?  I feel like I have never heard it until this year, LOL.

I didn't either, but will admit it's pretty clever.

[Adam Griffin]

So here's a swing map comparing the 2018 primary and the 2018 runoff (both of which had similar statewide margins). These use non-Atlas colors:

[IceSpear]

How long has "Demosaur" been around?  I feel like I have never heard it until this year, LOL.

This was the first mention of it on Atlas:

Arizona and Georgia are turning purple slowly and the Republicans have to make up ground in the MW...

Hillary and Schweitzer may have appeal to the Demosaur areas, and a Hispanic Republican could go good in the SW.

It was mentioned a few more times from 2012-2017, but only got a lot of mentions in 2018.