Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[LoneStarDem]

Can Tomlinson give Perdue a real hard run for his $$$ in the US Senate contest ?

[QAnonKelly]

Bit late but I wonder when the GOP is going to try to stop the bleeding some in Gwinnett. I guess the play will be to start making inroads with Latinos. By 2030, it's going to be the most populous county in the state and it just keeps getting bluer with every day. It says a lot about how much the state is changing that Cobb is a loss for the GOP now and it's where their most raw votes come from.  They're not going to be able to win much longer with Gwinnett becoming so D, the math's just not there.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Kemp won 74% of the White Vote yet won the state by only 1.4%. Wow

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp won the 74% of the White Vote yet won the state by only 1.4%. Wow

Kemp also did 10 points better with Latinos than Donald Trump who we have no reason to believe will make inroads with that group in the next 18 months. But GA is supposed to be Likely R. Lmao.

Bit late but I wonder when the GOP is going to try to stop the bleeding some in Gwinnett. I guess the play will be to start making inroads with Latinos. By 2030, it's going to be the most populous county in the state and it just keeps getting bluer with every day. It says a lot about how much the state is changing that Cobb is a loss for the GOP now and it's where their most raw votes come from.  They're not going to be able to win much longer with Gwinnett becoming so D, the math's just not there.

The GOP is done statewide. Abrams is coming for that seat in 2022. Their only hope is to hunker down in 2020 with the legislative map so that they can manipulate the maps to keep the Dem Gov in check for at least the next decade.

[Adam Griffin]

Kemp won the 74% of the White Vote yet won the state by only 1.4%. Wow

Kemp also did 10 points better with Latinos than Donald Trump who we have no reason to believe will make inroads with that group in the next 18 months. But GA is supposed to be Likely R. Lmao.

I would point out that the exit poll figures are likely BS for Latinos in particular - both in 2014 and 2018. Based on county-level analysis I did, Carter likely received around 65% of the Latino vote; Abrams around 70%.

[Suburbia]

Georgia will be a swing state in the 2020s and 2030s but it will be more like Florida, Leanish R.

Also, both Abrams and Kemp were unappealing candidates.

Kemp is a bland white male, Abrams is a loose cannon.

Cagle would have beaten Abrams by 5 points.

If Democrats were so concerned about "voting rights", Barrow would have won the December runoff, but they stayed home.

[skbl17]

Georgia will be a swing state in the 2020s and 2030s but it will be more like Florida, Leanish R.

Also, both Abrams and Kemp were unappealing candidates.

Kemp is a bland white male, Abrams is a loose cannon.

Cagle would have beaten Abrams by 5 points.

If Democrats were so concerned about "voting rights", Barrow would have won the December runoff, but they stayed home.

A few points I would make:

1) The last statewide runoff of importance, 2008's Senate race between Chambliss and Martin, Dems also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into a 15-point blowout for Chambliss. Here, voters also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into...a 2-point race. Even with insanely low turnout Raffensperger and Eaton barely won their runoffs. In the runoffs, Miller and Barrow actually did better than Abrams in parts of Metro Atlanta. That's not exactly comforting for the GOP; runoffs are no longer slam dunks.

2) Obviously Abrams/Kemp gets the most coverage and views, but most other Republicans didn't do that much better last fall: the Attorney General race had a Generic R vs. Generic D, but that was also a narrow win for Carr. PSC D3 was also largely Generic R vs. Generic D, that went to a runoff. Lt. Gov., while not quite Generic R vs. Generic D, didn't see much improvement from the gubernatorial results for Geoff Duncan. Pridemore barely avoided a runoff in PSC D5, again not a high-profile race.

The lone standouts were popular Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black and State School Superintendent Richard Woods, who only romped to 6-point victories, hardly landslides. Even in a bad or close-run year for a party, some of their statewide officials will still win sizable victories: the same year Mike Taylor was getting smashed by Sonny Purdue in his 2006 reelection bid for governor, Thurbert Baker, Michael Thurmond, and Tommy Irvin all won their statewide races with 10- to 20-point landslides.

3) There wouldn't be anything to sustain a long 20-year period of Florida-style Lean R politics in Georgia. Florida has two things Georgia doesn't have: a sustained inflow of conservative retirees and a more Republican-leaning Latino voting block. Those two trends combined with the typical rural Dem collapse we see elsewhere in the South mean that the pro-Dem trends among young people and suburbanites are cancelled out, leaving Florida in an R-tilting state. The incompetence of the FDP doesn't help matters.

Georgia has none of those things: while there are conservative retirees, they have only a fraction of the clout and influence Florida's have. Peachtree City is not The Villages. Latinos in this state vote more in line with those in the Southwest, not Florida. Finally, while the Georgia Dems have definitely had their low points, they aren't even in the same universe as the FDP in terms of incompetence.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia will be a swing state in the 2020s and 2030s but it will be more like Florida, Leanish R.

Also, both Abrams and Kemp were unappealing candidates.

Kemp is a bland white male, Abrams is a loose cannon.

Cagle would have beaten Abrams by 5 points.

If Democrats were so concerned about "voting rights", Barrow would have won the December runoff, but they stayed home.

A few points I would make:

1) The last statewide runoff of importance, 2008's Senate race between Chambliss and Martin, Dems also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into a 15-point blowout for Chambliss. Here, voters also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into...a 2-point race. Even with insanely low turnout Raffensperger and Eaton barely won their runoffs. In the runoffs, Miller and Barrow actually did better than Abrams in parts of Metro Atlanta. That's not exactly comforting for the GOP; runoffs are no longer slam dunks.

2) Obviously Abrams/Kemp gets the most coverage and views, but most other Republicans didn't do that much better last fall: the Attorney General race had a Generic R vs. Generic D, but that was also a narrow win for Carr. PSC D3 was also largely Generic R vs. Generic D, that went to a runoff. Lt. Gov., while not quite Generic R vs. Generic D, didn't see much improvement from the gubernatorial results for Geoff Duncan. Pridemore barely avoided a runoff in PSC D5, again not a high-profile race.

The lone standouts were popular Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black and State School Superintendent Richard Woods, who only romped to 6-point victories, hardly landslides. Even in a bad or close-run year for a party, some of their statewide officials will still win sizable victories: the same year Mike Taylor was getting smashed by Sonny Purdue in his 2006 reelection bid for governor, Thurbert Baker, Michael Thurmond, and Tommy Irvin all won their statewide races with 10- to 20-point landslides.

3) There wouldn't be anything to sustain a long 20-year period of Florida-style Lean R politics in Georgia. Florida has two things Georgia doesn't have: a sustained inflow of conservative retirees and a more Republican-leaning Latino voting block. Those two trends combined with the typical rural Dem collapse we see elsewhere in the South mean that the pro-Dem trends among young people and suburbanites are cancelled out, leaving Florida in an R-tilting state. The incompetence of the FDP doesn't help matters.

Georgia has none of those things: while there are conservative retirees, they have only a fraction of the clout and influence Florida's have. Peachtree City is not The Villages. Latinos in this state vote more in line with those in the Southwest, not Florida. Finally, while the Georgia Dems have definitely had their low points, they aren't even in the same universe as the FDP in terms of incompetence.

Nice analysis.  I have been very impressed with your posts so far.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Michael Owens is giving David Scott (GA-13) another Primary challenge. Anyone out there think he can get him out this time?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just heard Tomlinson in Walton County. Amazing! Enthusiastically endorsed!

[QAnonKelly]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

[skbl17]

In another installment of "Gwinnett Republicans who see the writing on the wall", Charlotte Nash has announced that she won't run for reelection as Gwinnett County Commission chair next year.

[LoneStarDem]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

[Bidenworth2020]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

Will we have a special, or will Kemp appoint his replacement?

[skbl17]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

Will we have a special, or will Kemp appoint his replacement?

The Georgia Constitution (Art. V, Sec. II, Paragraph VIII) stipulates that the Governor will fill the vacancy (said appointment must then be confirmed by the Senate,) but only until the next general election:

In case of the death or withdrawal of a person who received the majority of votes cast in an election for the office of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State School Superintendent, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Agriculture, or Commissioner of Labor, the Governor elected at the same election, upon becoming Governor, shall have the power to fill such office by appointing, subject to confirmation of the Senate, an individual to serve until the next general election and until a successor for the balance of the unexpired term shall have been elected and qualified.

So Kemp would appoint a new commissioner of insurance, but there would be an election to fill the position in 2020 - the same time as the election for president, U.S. Senate, and two of the PSC seats.

[Bidenworth2020]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

Will we have a special, or will Kemp appoint his replacement?

The Georgia Constitution (Art. V, Sec. II, Paragraph VIII) stipulates that the Governor will fill the vacancy (said appointment must then be confirmed by the Senate,) but only until the next general election:

In case of the death or withdrawal of a person who received the majority of votes cast in an election for the office of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State School Superintendent, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Agriculture, or Commissioner of Labor, the Governor elected at the same election, upon becoming Governor, shall have the power to fill such office by appointing, subject to confirmation of the Senate, an individual to serve until the next general election and until a successor for the balance of the unexpired term shall have been elected and qualified.

So Kemp would appoint a new commissioner of insurance, but there would be an election to fill the position in 2020 - the same time as the election for president, U.S. Senate, and two of the PSC seats.

aww... no special election

[ON Progressive]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

Will we have a special, or will Kemp appoint his replacement?

The Georgia Constitution (Art. V, Sec. II, Paragraph VIII) stipulates that the Governor will fill the vacancy (said appointment must then be confirmed by the Senate,) but only until the next general election:

In case of the death or withdrawal of a person who received the majority of votes cast in an election for the office of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State School Superintendent, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Agriculture, or Commissioner of Labor, the Governor elected at the same election, upon becoming Governor, shall have the power to fill such office by appointing, subject to confirmation of the Senate, an individual to serve until the next general election and until a successor for the balance of the unexpired term shall have been elected and qualified.

So Kemp would appoint a new commissioner of insurance, but there would be an election to fill the position in 2020 - the same time as the election for president, U.S. Senate, and two of the PSC seats.

aww... no special election

It would be considered a special election actually since it's in the middle of the office's term, it would just be held on Election Day 2020

[Bidenworth2020]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

Will we have a special, or will Kemp appoint his replacement?

The Georgia Constitution (Art. V, Sec. II, Paragraph VIII) stipulates that the Governor will fill the vacancy (said appointment must then be confirmed by the Senate,) but only until the next general election:

In case of the death or withdrawal of a person who received the majority of votes cast in an election for the office of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State School Superintendent, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Agriculture, or Commissioner of Labor, the Governor elected at the same election, upon becoming Governor, shall have the power to fill such office by appointing, subject to confirmation of the Senate, an individual to serve until the next general election and until a successor for the balance of the unexpired term shall have been elected and qualified.

So Kemp would appoint a new commissioner of insurance, but there would be an election to fill the position in 2020 - the same time as the election for president, U.S. Senate, and two of the PSC seats.

aww... no special election

It would be considered a special election actually since it's in the middle of the office's term, it would just be held on Election Day 2020

Well sure technically but when I say special election I mean an election that doesn't happen at the same time as any other major races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beck turned himself in this morning and will be arraigned this afternoon.  Another tidbit on the possible replacement process:

Under state law, the governor can appoint a panel to decide whether Beck should be suspended, but Gov. Brian Kemp has so far not said whether he’ll do that. He has two weeks to make the decision.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/breaking-georgia-insurance-commissioner-jim-beck-surrenders-feds/qvaA0XZ6EqFgE0bTBJZHhK/

[LoneStarDem]

WTH was Beck thinking ? Considering he's a statewide elected officeholder.

[QAnonKelly]

WTH was Beck thinking ? Considering he's a statewide elected officeholder.

He has the magic (R) next to his name

[Adam Griffin]

Since we've reached 2k posts, Georgia's Very Own Megathread v3 is now open!