Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[IceSpear]

Many posters here are stuck in the 50s, in more ways than one lol.

[IceSpear]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

[IceSpear]

A white person struggling with their healthcare or job situation, perhaps?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=54&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[IceSpear]

They’re a self hating white (e.g. BRTD)

I don't think BRTDs exist in Georgia.

Uh...are you familiar with Atlanta at all? Or even Athens.

Addendum: BaconKing said he once had a girlfriend who literally prayed over a bag of weed "thanking God for the blessings" before smoking it. so yeah.

I am not. But you are very, uh...unique.

[IceSpear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

Uh...is there a difference?

[IceSpear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

In hindsight, HRC taking the foot off the gas during August was probably her campaign’s fatal flaw.

Nah, it was allowing the media to define her and never fighting back.

[IceSpear]

My absentee ballot is arriving soon. Problem is I have no idea who or what 80% of the ballot is.

So you're a typical American voter then?

Actually nevermind, the fact that you know what 20% is probably puts you in the top tier of political knowledge.

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

[IceSpear]

Obvious voter suppression against rural whites. Glad to see you reporting this very important information!

Can't wait to see your GA gubernatorial "model" on election night, it just worked so well in Alabama last year!

I think that saying about glass houses applies here...

My 2016 presidential prediction was the 3rd most accurate on Atlas, thank you very much.

Huh, really? I'll take your word for it I guess. How'd you go from that to overestimating Republicans by 10+ points in every election?

According to this forum circa October 2016, I was overestimating Republicans by 10 points. Basically, I knew there was a shy Trump vote that the polls weren't picking up, just like there's a shy GOP vote the polls aren't picking up. This will look far more like 2002 than 2010.

So, you're saying Democrats won't be making significant gains this year? Is there always gonna be a "shy GOP vote" now?

Absolutely, at least until Trump leaves office.

Why wasnt there a shy GOP vote in VA Gov, AL Senate, and PA? These were all races you got wrong by 10 points

I also want to know who his "sources" were that said Saccone would win by 10-12 points the day before the election, lol.

[IceSpear]

Racist GA hicks flooding to the polls

Yeah...I'll believe the Racist GA Hicks lose when I see it. The thought of a black woman becoming governor is going to energize them to unimaginable levels.

[IceSpear]

If she loses I think there's going to be endless discussion about how she ran too far to the left. She is really going all out on the base first strategy and if it pays off, hers will be a model all over but GA Dems will have to do a lot of soul searching if it doesn't.

Will they? Even if she loses, if she does better than any Democrat has in Georgia in a decade, that says something in and of itself.

[IceSpear]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

That is not his purpose for running. He is running for Rich White Male Georgia and Rich White Male Georgia only.

Yeah, I'm sure Kemp ran an ad about rounding up illegals in his truck to appeal to rich white men and not the bubbas.

[IceSpear]

You can always count on IceSpear to come out in defense of the real victims here, rich people.

I like how you didn't respond to the actual point. Rich white men mostly want "illegals" in the country to exploit them for cheap labor. Kemp, like Trump, rails against them to cater to the actual Republican base in Georgia, the Racist GA Hicks.

[IceSpear]

Kemp, in his office as SoS, has launched an investigation of the Georgia Democratic Party for allegedly attempting to hack the state's voter system.  He has so far presented no evidence to back up this claim.

The AJC's Jim Galloway (generally a pretty objective political reporter) has a scathing article about this:  https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/brian-kemp-november-surprise-show-the-facts-and-make-quick/3jgTq3R4pAQq3x6paQ8PUP/

Welcome to the third world, courtesy of Trump and the GOP. There's a good chance that Kemp steals this election even if he loses it.

[IceSpear]

I'm just going to say this: Regardless of if there's a runoff or not, Stacey Abrams has nothing to be ashamed of. She ran an amazing campaign and did the best any Georgia Democrat has since...I don't even know, Adam or one of the other Georgians can fill in the blank there.

Her margins in the Atlanta metro are simply insane. I hope it's not the last we've seen of her, and luckily I doubt it is.

[IceSpear]

Bit of a wild shot here; but might she be beating Casey Cagle? Cagle doesn't have the same appeal to the Trumpy rural base as Kemp, who brilliantly played identity politics, and generally in the primary came off as an ass. He may have done better in the suburbs though, but then again Democrats are doing well in the suburbs overall this year. It's hard to tell, and I may be completely off with this-thoughts?

I agree. I think the suburbs were already locked in for Abrams from the beginning, but Kemp whipped the Racist GA Hicks into a frenzy in a way that Cagle never could have. And it'll probably end up being enough.

[IceSpear]

It's lovely that the incumbent Secretary of State is so vehemently against the idea of counting all the votes.

[IceSpear]

At least Abrams' coattails managed to drag McBath across the finish line. Too bad they couldn't get Bourdeaux across as well...

[IceSpear]

Yikes, this might end up as Chambliss vs. Martin 2.0.

The sad thing for John Barrow is that this is probably his last bite at the apple. He's already a pretty bad fit for the Georgia Democratic Party, and will soon enough (if not already) be a bad fit for Democratic hopes of winning in the general as well. He doesn't really appeal to enough Racist GA Hicks to claim the "electable" mantle when their main strategy is running up the score in the Atlanta metro now.

[IceSpear]

Let’s go Brad!

how can you support him dude? Look at what Kemp did to the voting process!

Why would it be surprising that a Republican is supporting a Republican? At least he voted against the pedophile. That's more than 91% of Alabama Republicans can say, lol.

[IceSpear]

Let’s go Brad!

I thought you would like John Barrow. He is a great guy. Not sure why an "Indy" is supporting Brad.

He's definitely more of an indy than the 45% of "independents" in Alabama that voted for the pedophile, lol.

[IceSpear]

Barrow has to remember the old hicks who actually care about the secretary of state position remember that one ad with the gun and the lynching or whatever.

The fact his grandpa stopped a lynching probably hurts barrow

[IceSpear]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

Runoffs will always equal death in Georgia, time to accept it.

[IceSpear]

Well, so much for the Dem hack talking points that all runoffs wouldn't be the same as 2008 because "Dems are more energized now."

If Abrams had made it to a runoff, I suspect we would have been seeing a very different turnout right now.

Maybe, but considering the history of Georgia runoffs and the way this race is looking, I doubt she'd even be able to match her ED performance, much less exceed it.