Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[QAnonKelly]

I could see Republican's being so worried about losing this race... that they end up beating themselves through all the underhanded stunts they try to pull.

Essentially McCrory vs. Cooper all over again.

I could also see the state leg revolting like they did in NC without Deal there to tamper them down some

[QAnonKelly]

Happy ending, perhaps:

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Good, I hope it doesn’t pass. I hope both Abrams and Barrow hammer their opponents over this.

[QAnonKelly]

^^^ This, I believe, is why Abrams herself is - as the AJC put it - "making a beeline for GOP territory" (including some very hostile turf). Let the field organizers and volunteers hammer away at the urban clusters - it's needed - but without serious gains elsewhere, it's a plurality instead of a majority. It's also probably why places like Dalton and Rome are suddenly getting paid staff in them.

Seems like she’s taking a lot from Cooper’s win. It’s very smart of her too. She’s gonna win Cobb and Gwinnett at this point, she needs to cut into the margins in the rural white areas

[QAnonKelly]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

[QAnonKelly]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

Is he really that ill?

He has Parkinson’s and was diagnosed 3.5 years or so ago. The lifespan after diagnosis is 5-10 years and once it progresses you really start to suffer. I think he’s doing better at the current moment than he has been but I could see both he and Deal not wanting to run the risk of him not being able to serve for another four years and have Abrams appoint someone

[QAnonKelly]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

Is he really that ill?

He has Parkinson’s and was diagnosed 3.5 years or so ago. The lifespan after diagnosis is 5-10 years and once it progresses you really start to suffer. I think he’s doing better at the current moment than he has been but I could see both he and Deal not wanting to run the risk of him not being able to serve for another four years and have Abrams appoint someone

A Gov. Abrams could appoint Teresa Tomlinson or maybe Judge Glenda Hatchett. If she wants to pick a white male to appeal to the suburbs and rural areas, maybe Jim Marshall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenda_Hatchett

Tomlinson has already more or less confirmed she’s running for Perdue’s seat that’s up in 2020 so idt it would be her

[QAnonKelly]

Do you guys think Isakson will resign if Abrams wins? If so, who do you think Deal appoints to replace him? He’s so sick that I really don’t think he’ll be able to serve out the entirety of his term.

Is he really that ill?

He has Parkinson’s and was diagnosed 3.5 years or so ago. The lifespan after diagnosis is 5-10 years and once it progresses you really start to suffer. I think he’s doing better at the current moment than he has been but I could see both he and Deal not wanting to run the risk of him not being able to serve for another four years and have Abrams appoint someone

A Gov. Abrams could appoint Teresa Tomlinson or maybe Judge Glenda Hatchett. If she wants to pick a white male to appeal to the suburbs and rural areas, maybe Jim Marshall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenda_Hatchett

Tomlinson has already more or less confirmed she’s running for Perdue’s seat that’s up in 2020 so idt it would be her

I would think GA Dems would really want Yates to run in 2020.

I think they want her to run but she doesn’t want to run. They could eventually end up talking her into it tho. She’s probably hands down the best D they could recruit

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/02/us/politics/kemp-georgia-abrams.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kemp’s new ad is actually pretty good. I think it’s probablt too late for him to attempt to pivot to the center. Abrams has a two month head start in that area on him

[QAnonKelly]

Lol y’all, go to briankemp.com

[QAnonKelly]

They also have Deal at 63% approval

[QAnonKelly]

This poll is pretty much right at what I’d think it is atm

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp’s new ad with his wife is pretty good

[QAnonKelly]

I’ve been on my way to Dahlonega today and have yet to see an Abram’s sign.

Well I guess she will lose by 40 points then

[QAnonKelly]

Planning to vote the 15th on the first day of early voting

[QAnonKelly]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

She has way more in-state small dollar donations than Brian Kemp. Just because Brian Kemp has more wealthy donors to choose from inside the state doesn't make him a better candidate.  

Small donors are still a fractional source of funding for Abrams' campaign.  She's raised more money from big-time out-of-state donors like George Soros (who gave $1.5 million) that small donors, and many of her small donors are probably from out-of-state as well.

Like it or not, Abrams' fundraising is a weakness that Kemp will be able to capitalize upon.

[QAnonKelly]

Going to canvass for Abrams Saturday

[QAnonKelly]

Does early voting usually skew that non white?

[QAnonKelly]

One thing that is really interesting about the early voting so far is the gender gap (not in support, but in turnout).

Women are about 51% of the overall population (probably about the same in GA), but so far 58.4% of voters in GA are women, 40.1% are men, and 1.5% are unknown. That is a 1.45 to 1 ratio!!!

For mail ballots, that probably skews somewhat more female than other votes and early votes are likely to, because it (I presume) skews old, and women have longer average life expectancy than men.

But even with that, it is an incredible turnout gap by sex. I do not expect it to hold at that sort of absurd ratio, but the fact that it is so high now does suggest that by the time everyone votes, I would bet the sex composition of the electorate will probably settle at an unusually high ratio of women to men compared to previous elections.

And... if there is a high gender gap in vote preference combined with a high gender gap in turnout, your imagination can fill in the rest.


Just to put some more context on that, this is the sort of gender gap in composition of the electorate that you might expect from a Democratic primary in the South, not a General election.

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

[QAnonKelly]

I’d assume the gender gap comes from black people being the plurality atm

No doubt, but regardless it is still really impressive and striking. What would be really interesting is to see the %s black women/black men/white women/white men.

White women probably would heavily rely on where the votes come from. Abrams probably slaughters Kemp with white women in the core Atlanta area (especially women with degrees) but would struggle in the more rural / less educated parts of the state.

[QAnonKelly]

The AJC takes a look at the two Georgia counties with the largest partisan shifts in recent years: Gwinnett for the Democrats, Brooks for the Republicans.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/meet-the-two-georgia-counties-with-the-state-biggest-partisan-shifts/IW2xbxGHKOpimeIfXvKhiO/

I'm expecting an eye-popping margin out of Gwinnett County in favor of Abrams. The House districts up for grabs along with Abrams's sleek ground game is going to wallop Republican turnout here.

Deal and Perdue (lol @ Mr Racial Gaffe Master standing a chance there now) won Gwinnett by 8 in ‘14. Isakson won it by not quite 4 in ‘16 while Clinton won it by about 6. Could Abrams get it to over 5? Especially with her Latino / Asian outreach? Either way, I see Isakson being the last R to win there for a long time. Especially with Kemp, Trump , and Perdue being on the ticket over the next cycle.

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

I think so.  Abrams just has to make sure she isn't getting obliterated in the rurals like Hillary did.  If she can up her margins in the rural regions by a teensy bit, she should be fine.

Yeah she seems to be going with the Cooper strategy. She's pretty much been living in the rural parts of the state for a while. She's gonna win Cobb and Gwinnett at this point, she just needs to focus on driving up the margins in the black rural counties and cutting her loses in the rural white counties.

[QAnonKelly]

Wouldn't Obama's 5 point loss (black margins)  + Clinton's 5 point loss (suburbs margins) get you pretty close to a win? This early voting seems like it's fitting into that larger trend.

Obama 08 (non-metro ATL) + Clinton 16 (metro ATL) closes half the gap (50.1-47.4).

I wonder what Obama’s 08  margins would look like with ‘16 demographics.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/9nmrxh/hi_im_stacey_abrams_if_i_win_my_toss_up_georgia/?st=JN6H5LUF&sh=b301f875

Abrams is doing an ama right now

[QAnonKelly]

How are you guys voting on the amendments? I’m definitely voting yes on 1, probably no on 2-4, and probably yes on 5