Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Gass3268]

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Yea honestly businesses and govt agencies should be allowed to do this with voter registration as much as they please imo. I don't see the issue with simply asking that someone register - it's not demanding they vote a certain way, after all, and with America constantly getting low turnout elections relative to the developed world, we ought to use whatever leverage we have to push registration rates higher.

Or we could just enact same-day registration in every single state. That would be much better. But of course higher turnout is the entire reason it's not allowed in most Republican-controlled states.

I work for an anti-poverty organization that works with the federal government through various grants. We help them draft a lot of their reports and we do their data collection. We've just finished a big revision of the data collection and reporting process. During that process we were trying to figure out what would be good things to add about what different groups where doing to help those in need. Someone suggested that we take data on those that help get people registered to vote and actually out to vote. We were told that was a no-no and wouldn't be allowed in the report. This was still when Obama was President!

[Gass3268]

I love John Barrow's ads:

https://twitter.com/AnthonyAdragna/status/1054406227013394434

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/1054879231778451456

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

What was the male vs female numbers on this day in 2014?

[Gass3268]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 108,878 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); today's accepted ballot total stands at 741,161 votes: 29.06% of total 2014 turnout.

Early vote totals are 194% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 203% Monday).

The white share of the vote ticked back up slightly, falling just short of the 60 mark. The electorate that voted Monday was 61% white, 28% black and 11% other. Today's electorate was substantially more female (55%).

Code:

White	443915	59.9% (+0.2)
Black	217990	29.4% (-0.2)
Latino	8946         1.2% (0.0)
Asian	9151         1.2%  (-0.1)
Other	61159        8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	397712	53.7% (+0.3)
Male		328622 	44.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	14827         2.0% (0.0)

18-29	 43577	5.9%   (+0.1)
30-39	 54361	7.3%   (+0.1)
40-49	 88948	12.0%   (+0.2)
50-64       235122	31.7%  (0.0)
65+         304832      41.1%  (-0.5)
Unknown	 14321       1.9%   (0.0)

Not thrilled with the white % ticking up, but loving the fact that the female number keeps ticking up and the electorate keeps getting younger.

For what it's worth, on the same day of early voting 4 years ago, the EV electorate was 67% white, 28% black; a notable difference.

But yes, I'm still worried - hoping the non-white surge that occurred in the final 2 weeks in 2014 (which ultimately drove those EV figures to 61% white, 33% black) plays out along similar lines this year, too. There does appear to be some evidence that the GOP is cannibalizing 2014 ED votes this year via EV at higher rates than DEMs.

What was the male vs female numbers on this day in 2014?

I don't have that data for this comparable day specifically, but here are the racial and gender figures that I collected on various days back in 2014. The trend in them seemed to suggest that they were getting more female with time (which makes sense, given that 60% of black voters here are female), so if you cleave the 2% in 2018 who are unknown, the electorate is probably a bit more female compared to this day 4 years ago.

Good to hear!

[Gass3268]

Giddy Up!

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1055187228723499009

[Gass3268]

I'll let AG do a more detailed report when he as the time, but it's good to see the racial numbers stay the same, female % continue to go up, the electorate continue to get younger, and a higher % of the days vote come from folks who did not vote in 2014.

[Gass3268]

In regard to above though: the white vote has been stagnating for the past 3 days or so, suggesting that it's probably blown its load, so to speak. The question is whether there's a ton of reserve black voters who are going to show up in the final week like 2014.

I imagine Saturday and Sunday will produce some great daily numbers for Democrats. We might even see some movement today, depending, but the real trajectory of this should be obvious by the middle of next week at the latest. The weekend will provide some padding for Abrams, but won't necessarily be indicative of any trend.

Souls to the Polls?

[Gass3268]

Will Ferrell volunteering for Abrams

Ha, where is he at?

[Gass3268]

The white vote % almost dropped below 59%.

[Gass3268]

Obama is coming to Atlanta on Friday:

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1056982444195360770

[Gass3268]

Biggest day of voting in Georgia so far this cycle; surpassed 150k votes (including in-person and mail).

Breakdowns to come...

I've seen them, another great day!

[Gass3268]

I love it! Everyday the electorate gets younger, more female and less white.

[Gass3268]

I got lazy and didn't update this for a week, but...not much in terms of meaningful change. I did notice that some of the more rural, whiter areas seemed to have improved for Democrats in terms of declining white share, while some of the blacker areas have become whiter (WTF Calhoun County?).

Anyway, over the past 7 days:

• Wilkinson & Jefferson go from white to black
• Chatham & Calhoun go from black to white

Does anything change if you do white vs everything else?

[Gass3268]

How many early vote days are left?

[Gass3268]

How many early vote days are left?

3 days guaranteed statewide, but I'm pretty sure most metro/urban counties will also still have Saturday and Sunday voting this weekend. There'll of course still be mail ballots coming in over the weekend as well.

We're on track for 2m+ early votes at the current rate...we might even break the presidential EV totals.

Thanks! Given that the more urban counties have 5 days, taking that last 2.4% off the white vote doesn't seem impossible, especially with what I imagine will be one final "souls to the polls."

[Gass3268]

CNN is giving Oprah the 2015/2016 Trump treatment. AKA, speech shown in full:

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1058036167936000001

Edit: MSNBC too

[Gass3268]

Oprah triggered Trump:

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1058098749053042688

[Gass3268]

It took an extra 30 minutes just for today's file to appear compared to yesterday's. There's going to be a huge number of voters for today. Unless there was some hiccup on their end causing it, we're going to fly past 2,000,000.

Bonkers

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1058568334730510336

[Gass3268]

Or it may be longer

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1058569608440016898

Gonna stay up until this is done. Thought about it for NV, but they aren't gonna have numbers from Clark until tomorrow afternoon, lol.

[Gass3268]

In our 2 "swing precincts" in Whitfield County:

Total Votes Cast in 2014 (EV + ED): 768
Total Votes Cast as of 2 PM (incl. EV): 1330

This is either really good or really bad for us.

It's gonna come down to turnout.

[Gass3268]

AG you called it, GA-07 would flip before GA-06!

[Gass3268]

AG you called it, GA-07 would flip before GA-06!

Called it too soon (but it's still closer as of now than GA-06)!

Dave Wasserman has some mud on his face.

[Gass3268]

After all of his cheating, he has now resigned:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1060548577733328898