What do you think of my 2020 ratings map?
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  What do you think of my 2020 ratings map?
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Author Topic: What do you think of my 2020 ratings map?  (Read 1381 times)
TDAS04
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« on: August 19, 2018, 02:35:35 PM »



Dark Red: Safe D
Medium Red: Likely D
Light Red: Lean D
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean R
Medium Blue: Likely R
Dark Blue: Safe R

At least lean D: 248
At least lean R: 219
Tossup: 71

Feel free to post your own maps. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2018, 05:08:01 PM »

It looks like Cook PVI.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2018, 06:48:57 PM »

Fairly reasonable. Oddly pessimistic yet optimistic at the same time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2018, 07:28:27 PM »

Here is my rival map.

First I recognize all states that Donald Trump lost by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost in 1992 or later. Those are the same states. They are in very deep red, and approval ratings for President Trump are consistently awful in every one of them. On the other side I have all the states that Donald Trump won by 10% or more that no Democratic nominee has lost by 5% or less beginning in 2008, but not in any state in which he got less than 47% of the vote in 2016 (Utah -- in green) You will see why I have those conditions.
 


Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

Now in strong red (60%) I must put New Mexico, which was at twice the usual margin of error, voted for Dubya in 2004; Colorado and Virginia, which seem to have voted about as strongly for Hillary Clinton as for Obama, Trump is doing execrably in all three states in polling. Colorado and Virginia both went for Dubya, but that won't be relevant in 2020. Less-bright red applies to four states that have either never voted for any Republican nominee since 1988 (Minnesota) or have done so only once (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) and have a re-elect/do not re-electpoll indicating that they would go decisively against Trump. States in which Trump     



Really-strong Trump 95
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

I'm sure you want to see some not-so-deep blue on the map. The problem is that Trump is underwater in every state on this map still in gray. That includes four states that Republicans have not lost since 2000 but in which Trump is underwater (Georgia, Missouri, Montana, and Texas), Obama actually won Indiana, Nebraska-02, and North Carolina in 2008, so those states can go for the right Democrat or against the wrong Republican.

...Execrable polls for Trump based on re-elect or not to re-elect put Arizona and Ohio in pink. There is no such poll for Pennsylvania or Nevada, but I can't imagine anything else for Pennsylvania or Nevada. Maine at-large is a good analogue to New Hampshire, so I put it in this category. Finally, I can't quite categorize Florida, Iowa, or Maine-02, so they are in white. 



Really-strong Trump 95
Normally R but feebly anti-Trump 68
Usually R but feebly anti-Trump this time 27
Utah: very strong Republican except for Trump 6
Real swing states barely against Trump 36
Real swing states doing badly for Trump in 2020  46
Tend D and about even for Trump in 2016, but anti-Trump in 2020 40
Firmly D and strong anti-Trump 27
Really-strong D and anti-Trump 183

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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2018, 08:07:36 PM »

Florida is lean R just like 2004.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2018, 08:39:04 PM »

Seems right. I have no serious complaints.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2018, 08:59:44 PM »



I can see KS,AZ,NC, FL, OH, IA all flipping in an Obama style 52-48% landslide victory
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Greatblueheron
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2018, 10:34:07 PM »
« Edited: August 23, 2018, 02:21:06 PM by Greatblueheron »

Here’s my 2020 electoral college ratings map.



Dark Red: Safe D
Medium Red: Likely D
Light Red: Lean D
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean R
Medium Blue: Likely R
Dark Blue: Safe R

Safe/Likely/lean D: 248 EVs
Safe/Likely/lean R: 260 EVs
Tossup: 30 EVs

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2018, 10:51:18 PM »


Florida will be more R than the USA as a whole, but with the current polling as an indicator, it will still go for just about any Democrat.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2018, 10:57:04 PM »

Increasing Puerto Rican population says what?
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2018, 11:27:28 PM »



Dark Red: Safe D
Medium Red: Likely D
Light Red: Lean D
Gray: Tossup
Light Blue: Lean R
Medium Blue: Likely R
Dark Blue: Safe R

At least lean D: 248
At least lean R: 219
Tossup: 71

Feel free to post your own maps. 

I would flip NC and FL rating on this map and make NH a tossup
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2018, 04:07:41 AM »


Green - Pure tossup

>30% - Tilt
>40% - Likely
>70% - Strong
>90% - Safe
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Politician
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2018, 07:18:44 AM »


Green - Pure tossup

>30% - Tilt
>40% - Likely
>70% - Strong
>90% - Safe
How dare you suggest Wisconsin will vote to the left of Pennsylvania? Seriously though, Wisconsin is an agricultural state that will be hit hard by Drumpf's trade war, so I can see the argument.
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andjey
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2018, 07:30:38 AM »

Very good job
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2018, 09:11:32 AM »


This, though personally I'd move AK/TX/VA to safe, and possibly NH/MI to toss up.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2018, 01:11:43 PM »


Pretty much this, although I could make FL & AZ light blue, but who knows?
FL was extremely close in 2008. AZ leans GOP, but who am I to say it won't be
trending toward the Dems by 2020?
Texas is the most interesting, it could be safe GOP, but this year's Senate race might change
that and if there is a Texan on the ticket it could be a battleground. With 38 electoral votes it could be part of a firewall, because that is all that would be needed to flip.. exactly 38 electoral votes plus the 2016 map =270.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2018, 02:10:39 PM »
« Edited: August 20, 2018, 03:16:57 PM by Thunder98 »

Mine as of 8/20/2018

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2018, 04:57:00 PM »

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Mail-order President
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2018, 05:34:02 PM »


30%: Tilt - Both parties have a chance of taking the state but one has a slight advantage
40%: Lean - One party has a clear advantage, but it's possible for them to still lose it
60%: Likely - One party is most likely going to win this state unless they're having a very bad night
90%: Safe - Near 100% chance the party wins the state unless a Roy Moore-ish candidate runs or a major third party splits the vote
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Nyssus
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2018, 10:56:11 PM »


90%: Safe
60%: Likely
30%: Tilt
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