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Author Topic: NM-Emerson: Lujan-Grisham +2  (Read 889 times)
yeah_93
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« on: August 20, 2018, 09:52:49 am »

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf

Lujan-Grisham (D) 42
Pierce (R)              40

Quote
Overall both Gubernatorial candidates are popular with Grisham at 45% favorable and 29%
unfavorable and Pearce at 41% favorable and 31% unfavorable.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2018, 09:57:16 am »

Junk, junk...
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2018, 09:59:25 am »

I can't wait for the hot takes about how Oklahoma is more likely to flip than New Mexico, haha.
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Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2018, 09:59:46 am »

I can't wait for the hot takes about how Oklahoma is more likely to flip than New Mexico, haha.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2018, 10:00:45 am »

New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Emerson College on 2018-08-18

Summary: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2018, 10:00:49 am »

I've been sympathetic to the Emerson Poll in the past, but this one is a mess. No way Pearce is going to win NM-3 while losing statewide.
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2018, 11:16:41 am »

Lujan-Grisham is an uninspiring Dunleavy-tier joke candidate, so no surprise. imo Tossup/Tilt R imo.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2018, 11:20:18 am »

Tilt R
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2018, 11:21:02 am »

Pearce isn't winning NM-03
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2018, 11:29:55 am »

LujŠn-Grisham is Lusing.
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2018, 11:57:52 am »

Inb4 mds adds it anyway.

Emerson is trash, but it's always been added in the past and is for some reason recognized as a credible pollster, so there's no reason not to add it.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2018, 11:59:52 am »

LujŠn-Grisham is Lusing.

She had a scandal.
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2018, 12:03:38 pm »

The wave will save her, but not good. However, polls with so many undecideds are pretty meaningless.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2018, 12:11:04 pm »

The wave will save her, but not good. However, polls with so many undecideds are pretty meaningless.

The wave won't be a full blown wave; however, NM is a Democratic base state.
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« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2018, 12:22:41 pm »

Lujan-Grisham will certainly win, but if this poll is anywhere near accurate, it bodes well for Yvette Herrell's prospects of holding onto NM-02 for the R's.
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2018, 12:22:50 pm »

Junk, junk...

How is it junk? You don't know what you are talking about.
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« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2018, 12:28:09 pm »

LujŠn-Grisham is Lusing.

She had a scandal.

Don't you mean "she was scandaled"?

Anyway, this is Emerson. Not sure I understand what conditions have to be met for Atlas posters to trust an Emerson poll, since some red posters are believing this. Some polls in 2016 had New Mexico very close (just a 2-3% lead for Clinton), so I'm not going to start sweating bullets about this race just yet.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2018, 12:54:58 pm »

She will win by six 53-47
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« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2018, 12:56:48 pm »

She will win by six 53-47

I doubt it. New Mexico is usually one of these states where third parties and indies get a decent voter share compared to other states. It will be more like 52-42% or so.
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2018, 02:12:29 pm »

The only argument I can find for this being a close race is that Gary Johnson's support is enough to create some kind of coattails that hurt Democrats across the state. Seems really unlikely that he would have that kind of effect unless he breaks 30 percent, and even then it probably won't help Republicans that much.

It also seems to me that Emerson has become a junk pollster in this cycle. They're getting really high undecideds and showing pretty much every race as close.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2018, 02:19:35 pm »

It also seems to me that Emerson has become a junk pollster in this cycle.

How could you say that?

Smiley imo Bredesen will win by more than Lujan Grisham imo Smiley
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2018, 05:51:25 pm »

Pearce can upset Michelle Lujan Grisham
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2018, 07:08:42 pm »

Pearce can upset Michelle Lujan Grisham
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2018, 01:32:52 am »

Junk, junk...

How is it junk? You don't know what you are talking about.

Because Democrats aren't losing NM in a Trump midterm. Pearce can be happy if he gets into the mid 40s. Grisham may not be the strongest candidate, but I don't see her losing in this state and this environment.
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2018, 02:47:24 am »

Martinez is unpopular, Trump is unpopular, NM is a blue state and Pearce is trying to win a 3rd term for his party... It's not happening.
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