FL Panhandle Haas Center: Scott +7 in the Panhandle

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/20180819/poll-panhandle-gop-split-over-governor-dems-prefer-graham

Scott 41
Nelson 34

The report, released Thursday, was conducted from July 30 through Aug. 13 and surveyed 610 respondents across 18 Panhandle counties.

[BundouYMB]

You should clarify in the title that this is only a poll of the panhandle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

[IceSpear]

Wow, Dems surging in the Panhandle while collapsing with Southern Florida Hispanics! #Realignment2k18

[Young Conservative]

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

>34% for the Democrat

[Politician]

Lol at Scott only bring +7 in the panhandle. Combine that with Nelson leading only 4 with Hispanics, I think we have a realignment of populist WWC Dems vs minority Repubs.

[Gass3268]

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

>34% for the Democrat

I'm not sure what counties they are exactly defining the Panhandel as, but 34% would be about a 10% increase from Hillary.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

These are great numbers for a Democrat in the Panhandle...

>34% for the Democrat

I'm not sure what counties they are exactly defining the Panhandel as, but 34% would be about a 10% increase from Hillary.

not to mention this doesn't count undecideds - and some are inevitably going to vote for Nelson. Neither candidate is going to get less than 42% of the Panhandle vote...

[Zaybay]

Highly interesting numbers, but I am hesitant to take them seriously after the 10 polls that have done the same for South Florida Hispanics and that gave us highly unrealistic polling data as well. Either that, or FL is going through a compete realignment, but I doubt it.

[GlobeSoc]

Lol at Scott only bring +7 in the panhandle. Combine that with Nelson leading only 4 with Hispanics, I think we have a realignment of populist WWC Dems vs minority Repubs.

this but unironically, but only because of the unique circumstances of this race (It might bleed over to the governors race, and into a general downballot weirdness if GOV matchup Putnam v Graham, but I doubt that matchup will occur). Scott leaning into the hispanic vote will cause North Florida whites some economic anxiety, and Nelson has natural strength in the region too.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

[GlobeSoc]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

I said this to you on discord, and I'll say it again on Atlas: Nelson will probably do somewhat better than that in the rural areas, and a bit worse in central Florida, and Miami-Dade going R is lol, even if I think it will be close-ish because of my analysis

[RINO Tom]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

I'd give Scott Monroe.

[GlobeSoc]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

I'd give Scott Monroe.

also also this

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll be #edgy and predict that there will be no realignment. Scott will do better with Hispanics than Republicans usually do, yeah, but if he wins it will be because Nelson absolutely collapsed in the Panhandle and other GOP areas.

[GlobeSoc]

I’ll be #edgy and predict that there will be no realignment. Scott will do better with Hispanics than Republicans usually do, yeah, but if he wins it will be because Nelson absolutely collapsed in the Panhandle and other GOP areas.

I'm arguing that there will be a fluke election here, not that this will be some permanent RETURN TO THE 1990S. I guess it's possible if the GOV election had the right matchup, but even then national factors would reassert themselves in 2020...

[Skye]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

No way a Republican is winning Miami-Dade in a close election in 2018.

[Tender Branson]

Very bad result for Scott if true ...

When Obama won FL by 3% in 2008, he lost the panhandle by more than 20 points.

[ON Progressive]

I’m going to guess the 18 counties here are the ones Wikipedia considers always or sometimes called panhandle:
Bay County
Calhoun County
Escambia County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Okaloosa County
Santa Rosa County
Walton County
Washington County
Franklin County
Gadsden County
Jefferson County
Leon County
Liberty County
Madison County
Taylor County
Wakulla County

[IceSpear]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

Is this a joke? Even Rubio lost Miami-Dade by double digits. And Nelson only barely won some of those Panhandle counties in 2012.

[Pollster]

Nelson has long had incredible appeal in the panhandle. If this margin, as well as the previous poll of Hispanics' margin holds, we might see the most interesting FL map in recent memory.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Nelson has always overperformed with North FL voters, and Scott is targeting Hispanics hard. Possible that we get a very weird map like this

Is this a joke? Even Rubio lost Miami-Dade by double digits. And Nelson only barely won some of those Panhandle counties in 2012.

Rubio lost FL Hispanics by 2. If Nelson is winning them by 4, it's plausible that he wins Miami-Dade.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Whoever has Miami Dade going to Scott in the GE is delusional.

[President Johnson]

Whoever has Miami Dade going to Scott in the GE is delusional.

Yeah. If Scott wins it, Nelson would be done.

[Donerail]

The two-candidate results for 2018 from this region, for reference are 63-37 Trump.