FL Panhandle Haas Center: Scott +7 in the Panhandle

[Use Your Illusion]

It's entirely possible I'm over-thinking this but Duval County has proven very malleable and flips between red and blue every other senatorial cycle and Republicans carry it by better margins than Nelson. What evidence do we have to support the claim that they'll continue supporting him at a better margin than his 2012 performance of 50,000 considering he won by about half that in 2006 and lost in 2000? Nelson does not appear to be doing himself a whole lot of favors right now and I'm wondering what the odds of a flip are.

[Use Your Illusion]

And +7 is a worrisome figure for Scott in the pandhandle. That number should be about 1.5 times higher. I'm very curious to see exactly by how much is Nelson over-performing in some of these areas because I don't think you can stretch his support in the Tallahassee area any further than it already is.