What state should democrats be most worried about in 2020?
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Poll
Question: What state should democrats be most worried about in 2020?
#1
Pennsylvania		  
#2
Wisconsin		  
#3
Michigan		  
#4
Colorado		  
#5
Minnesota		  
#6
Nevada		  
#7
Virginia		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: What state should democrats be most worried about in 2020?  (Read 1479 times)
SN2903
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« on: August 21, 2018, 12:20:52 AM »
« edited: August 21, 2018, 12:24:24 AM by SN2903 »
Which state could be Trump's key to victory/the state democrats need to be most worried about in 2020?

I think it is Michigan or Pennsylvania. I voted for Penn narrowily because outside of Philly the state fits Trump very well. My gut is that Wisconsin votes to the left of Michigan in 2020. I just think that Michigan is state pretty tailor made for Trump's working class message and that outside of Wayne County dems are realy gonna struggle in while Wisconsin is traditionally a little bit more democratic going back to the 1980s.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2018, 12:24:02 AM »
If they're on the offense and have a good shot at taking all these states, then Pennsylvania would be one they should be thinking about.

If they are on the defense and hoping to win a close election, probably Michigan.
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SN2903
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2018, 12:25:27 AM »
Quote from: cookiedamage on August 21, 2018, 12:24:02 AM
If they're on the offense and have a good shot at taking all these states, then Pennsylvania would be one they should be thinking about.

If they are on the defense and hoping to win a close election, probably Michigan.
Solid analysis.
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Da2017
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2018, 12:40:11 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2018, 12:15:48 AM by Da2017 »
Poll left out Florida. I went with Pennsylvania assuming a close election. Pennsylvania has a good chance of being the tipping point state.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2018, 01:46:42 AM »
PA. A state we absolutely need. I am generally wooried that the Dems neglect WWCs (not the deplorables) again and blew parts of the Rust Belt. Especially if the nominee is not a white male.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2018, 02:13:27 AM »
I'd be the most worried about Pennsylvania. It's going to be very hard for a Democrat to win without Pennsylvania, whereas states like Arizona, Ohio, and Florida are obviously not must-wins for a Democrat. Wisconsin is also a state that Democrats can't take for granted, but unlike the majority of Atlas, I think it's slightly more likely to flip back than Pennsylvania, and while it's unlikely that the Democrats win without Wisconsin, it's more plausible than winning without Pennsylvania, which would pretty much mean that they would have to win Florida, or I guess winning AZ/MI/NE-02/WI would just barely do it.
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2018, 05:14:46 AM »
Pennsylvania, followed by Florida. Same answer as for the GOP thread. These are both party's fastest path for sealing the election if they gain or lose nothing else.

Both were close and are very flippable. If Pennsylvania flips though, Democrats will probably already have won Michigan and Wisconsin.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2018, 05:18:58 AM »
Pennsylvania for sure. 20 electoral votes that if they don't get they need Florida. Theoretically going forward Florida might be easier for them to win than Pennsylvania, just like its Virginia is now easier than Pennsylvania.
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BrianKrassenstein
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2018, 05:58:43 AM »
I'm worried about Pennsylvania.  I think gerrymandering has screwed them up the most.  Then my home state of Florida because of election hacking.

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here2view
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2018, 10:20:30 AM »
Pennsylvania will be the most crucial state. Democrats can win without Florida, they can't win without Pennsylvania in most cases.
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andjey
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2018, 10:29:16 AM »
1.Michigan
2.Pennsylvania
3.Nevada
4.Wisconsin
5.Colorado
6.Minnesota
7.Virginia
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UWS
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2018, 10:35:14 AM »
I'd say Pennsylvania but if Democrats nominate someone like Biden, they have a decent chance of winning Pennsylvania since Biden was born there.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2018, 11:21:39 AM »
Florida
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twenty42
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2018, 12:43:03 PM »
Regardless of what the NPV margin is, the Dems will have a very tough time getting to 270 if PA votes to the right of the nation again.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2018, 02:09:45 PM »
Pennsylvania, out of the ones in the poll.
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Peanut
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2018, 03:59:44 PM »
Voted MN because I hadn't seen the PA option, but yeah, PA and FL. Out of the Hillary states, MN.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2018, 06:33:49 PM »
Pennsylvania. It's worth the most electoral votes (other than Florida, but Florida isn't needed to get to 270, though it would be nice assurance) and the most consistently competitive.
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Orser67
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2018, 07:41:24 PM »
I voted Pennsylvania, too. It's just hard to see a Democratic victory without PA, and I think PA is quite likely to once again vote more Republican than MI.

I could imagine a scenario where Democrats lose PA, win WI and MI, hold all of the Clinton states, and win the election by either
a)winning FL, or
b)winning AZ and winning a contingent election in the House

But both a and (especially) b seem unlikely.
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SN2903
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2018, 07:44:03 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on August 21, 2018, 07:41:24 PM
I voted Pennsylvania, too. It's just hard to see a Democratic victory without PA, and I think PA is quite likely to once again vote more Republican than MI.

I could imagine a scenario where Democrats lose PA, win WI and MI, hold all of the Clinton states, and win the election by either
a)winning FL, or
b)winning AZ and winning a contingent election in the House

But both a and (especially) b seem unlikely.
No way Florida is still to the right of those 3 by a little bit.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2018, 08:06:39 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on August 21, 2018, 07:41:24 PM
I voted Pennsylvania, too. It's just hard to see a Democratic victory without PA, and I think PA is quite likely to once again vote more Republican than MI.

I could imagine a scenario where Democrats lose PA, win WI and MI, hold all of the Clinton states, and win the election by either
a)winning FL, or
b)winning AZ and winning a contingent election in the House

But both a and (especially) b seem unlikely.
Arizona and FL are still 3-5 +R states right now. If Trump wins all 3 again he is probably on his way to a bigger victory than 2016.
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