What state should the GOP be the most worried about in 2020?

[SN2903]

I vote for Wisconsin. I think that Florida and Ohio are lean R states right now and it will be very tough for democrats there but Wisconsin is a state if dems can win back it should worry the GOP.

[Da2017]

If on offense and have a good chance of holding on to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania plus other Trump states I'd make plays for Michigan. I would add Minnesota.

If on defense and looking to edge out a win I would focus on shoring up Florida.

[I’m not Stu]

Florida

[Xing]

There are plenty that the Republicans will have to compete in, but you're asking which state is the most likely to flip, I'd definitely say Michigan.

[McGarnagle]

A tie between Pennsylvania and Florida.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida due to its huge electoral influence and that their path requires them to hold all the rest of Trump states to win or win at least one of MN, NV, or NH. Republicans only need to win one of MI, PA, or WI to win an election so long as they win Florida (that is assuming they hold AZ, IA, NC, and OH) but without it they need all of them.

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, according to the best data available. Michigan is simply gone, and Wisconsin seems to be going out of reach. Pennsylvania is now the tipping-point state.

I may be ahead of myself here, but agriculture is going to turn against Trump because the trade wars will hurt farmers and ranchers -- especially those that grow or raise commodities for export. Tax cuts? They depend upon income!

Pennsylvania is less agricultural than Michigan or Wisconsin.

Florida? They could lose with Florida (which was the difference between 303 and 332 electoral votes for Obama, and that Republicans won in 1992 while losing the Presidential election). Arizona? That's bad, too. Ohio? They are not going to win Ohio and lose Pennsylvania.   North Carolina? They won't win without it, but they lose with it. 

Iowa went for Obama twice and went by nearly 9% for Trump, and I don't see it going by any more than 2% under the best of circumstances for Republicans .  It has but it has only six electoral votes, but it will have a difficult incumbent to defend in 2020, and if Democrats have not taken over the Senate, this will be a brittle target for Democrats.  Republicans can lose Iowa and win the Presidential election by winning Pennsylvania.

[here2view]

Florida or Pennsylvania. If Republicans win both they win the election.

I think Wisconsin and Michigan vote to the left of Pennsylvania.

[😥]

1.Michigan
2.Arizona
2.Wisconsin
4.Pennsylvania
5.Florida
6.Ohio
7.North Carolina
8.Georgia

[Del Tachi]

Florida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Arizona

[Senator-elect Spark]

Michigan

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Arizona

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess Michigan, since it is probably the most likely Trump state to flip. Though Trump can win without it. I guess though, if it is flipping Wisconsin and maybe even Pennsylvania would too.

[Orser67]

As someone else pretty much already said, Michigan is the most likely to flip but Florida is the most critical state to win.

[pbrower2a]

In order --

he cannot win Michigan again, and he has probably lost Wisconsin.

This leaves

Pennsylvania (tipping point)
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Indiana
Iowa

Iowa is at the bottom because he can win without it.

[SN2903]

In order --

he cannot win Michigan again, and he has probably lost Wisconsin.

This leaves

Pennsylvania (tipping point)
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Indiana
Iowa

Iowa is at the bottom because he can win without it.

You can't call an election over 2 years away! He absolutely can win MI and Wisconsin again. The states are overall very white demographically.

[CookieDamage]

In order --

he cannot win Michigan again, and he has probably lost Wisconsin.

This leaves

Pennsylvania (tipping point)
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Indiana
Iowa

Iowa is at the bottom because he can win without it.

You can't call an election over 2 years away! He absolutely can win MI and Wisconsin again. The states are overall very white demographically.

So are Vermont and Minnesota and he lost both. He also lost NH, even if by a slim margin he still lost and is not popular there now.

[pbrower2a]

In order --

he cannot win Michigan again, and he has probably lost Wisconsin.

This leaves

Pennsylvania (tipping point)
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Texas
Indiana
Iowa

Iowa is at the bottom because he can win without it.

You can't call an election over 2 years away! He absolutely can win MI and Wisconsin again. The states are overall very white demographically.

No, but I can see big problems. Donald Trump is going to need either miracles or cheating, if not both, to win re-election.

I already see Republicans losing governorships in Michigan and Wisconsin two and a half months away, and Trump will need the help of Republican pols to win those states. He can still lose both and win. (Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem due to similar demographics, the 2004 election putting them in opposite columns only because both stats were incredibly close to going for Dubya or Kerry In fact he can lose both states and Iowa and still win. But he must win every other state on that list.

Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state, whatever goes on in Iowa. If he is going to lose Michigan and Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania is the difference between 259 and 279 electoral votes for either. If he loses Iowa as well as Michigan and Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania is the difference between 265 and 285 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee. Trump needs not sweat Iowa because there is no state with five or fewer electoral votes that went for him in 2016 that was close to him losing.  Iowa matters if he should lose Montana and both NE-02 and NE-02 -- but such implies more contingencies.

OK: every state in my list defeats Trump if he loses it. Arizona and Indiana both do the trick themselves with only 11 electoral votes -- which means that the Democrat gets 270 electoral votes. North Carolina also does the trick. But -- he is not going to lose Ohio without also losing Pennsylvania, and he is not going to lose Indiana without losing both Pennsylvania and Ohio. He's not going to win Georgia without also winning one of Florida and North Carolina. I don't see him winning Texas without also winning Arizona (does the trick), Florida (does the trick), North Carolina (does the trick), and Georgia (does the trick). Texas going to the Democratic nominee in 2020 indicates that the Democrat has won over 400 electoral votes, which is about where it was in every Presidential election since 2008. Texas goes D if the well-educated white voters of Texas
turn to the same degree in Texas as they do in, for example, Illinois.
 
I'll go further. Missouri (which I consider gone in Presidential elections for Democrats for the foreseeable future) will be enough to get a 269-269 tie in the Electoral college, and either ME-02 or NE-02 puts the Democratic nominee over the top. But the Democrat is not going to win Missouri without also winning Iowa. Back to Montana: Trump is not lo9sing Montana without also losing Arizona.     

Of the states in the list, Pennsylvania will be the most difficult for Trump to win.

     

[TDAS04]

Michigan is the Trump state most likely to flip.  Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the most likely tipping point states, though I could see a case for Florida or Arizona.

[UncleSam]

I voted Georgia due to the wording of the question. Honestly Michigan is a luxury, not something to worry about, for a Republican. There’s a good argument to be made for Pennsylvania as the tipping point state, but ultimately I think that these are states the GOP will be competing in on even ground with the Democrats - I wouldn’t say the GOP has the right to worry about these states, as they are at best tossups.

The state that is red currently that therefore the GOP should be worried about losing (and therefore making their electoral math much harder) is Georgia. Democrats did not seriously contest it in 2016 and lost by 6, and with four more years of demographic change plus the high chance that the next nominee will enthuse the base and minorities more than Hillary did (and the dem base is massive in Georgia when compared to the partisan lean of the state), means that Georgia is a sleeper state to actually start to approach tipping point status. I could easily see Trump holding Ohio, Nc, Florida, and even Wisconsin or PA while losing Georgia and thus the election.

Arizona is my second choice, though I think Arizona is much less likely to swing Dem strongly than Georgia is - Arizona has a smaller black population and has a much more vocal moderate, disaffected R coalition that will prop up the GOP for a long time in that state, in spite of the long term trends. Georgia has very few swing voters by comparison, and once it is gone it will be completely hopeless for the GOP, similar to Virginia.

So ya, Georgia. I guess Pennsylvania if you want to give the GOP the right to worry about it, but I don’t think that’s the correct terminology. I would say focused on Pennsylvania and worried about Georgia.