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Author Topic: MN-Suffolk: Walz +5  (Read 1312 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« on: August 22, 2018, 08:40:09 am »

Walz 46
Johnson 41

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Minnesota_August_21_2018.pdf
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2018, 08:40:46 am »

/in b4 LimoLiberal says "Likely R due to MN-08 coattails"
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2018, 08:44:37 am »

Pretty unimpressive margin.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2018, 08:45:52 am »

No Republican is going to win statewide with Trump's approval at -15.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2018, 08:50:11 am »

Pretty unimpressive margin.

Thats all you got huh. Sad.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2018, 08:55:40 am »

Pretty unimpressive margin.

Let me guess: If it was Johnson +1, it would be titanium R?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2018, 09:21:16 am »

My guess is that Johnson does slightly worse than in 2014? Lean D anyways.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2018, 09:25:30 am »

My guess is that Johnson does slightly worse than in 2014? Lean D anyways.

Crazy to think how awful 2014 was for Democrats, except in Minnesota where they did even better than 2016.

I expect the map too look pretty similar. Waltz probably does a bit worse in Western Minnesota, wins Dakota, Olmsted, and Washington counties, and is stronger than a typical Democrat in the southern tier.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2018, 09:52:13 am »

Unlike the "experts", I think this is more winnable for Republicans without Pawlenty, but itís still going to be a difficult race for Johnson. Lean D, although an upset wouldnít really surprise me if Republicans are having a better than expected night.
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Former President Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2018, 09:57:03 am »

Pretty unimpressive margin.
/in b4 LimoLiberal says "Likely R due to MN-08 coattails"

close enough
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AOC for President 2032
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2018, 10:52:18 am »

Unlike the "experts", I think this is more winnable for Republicans without Pawlenty, but itís still going to be a difficult race for Johnson. Lean D, although an upset wouldnít really surprise me if Republicans are having a better than expected night.
Yep, Walz is in huge danger of complacency. Johnson seems to me the type to make a late bounce the way DJT did nationwide 2 years ago.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2018, 11:17:55 am »

Waltz and Smith are likely winning by 10+ in the end, because the Indys are leaning DEM.

Klobuchar wins by 20+
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2018, 04:14:24 pm »

Pretty unimpressive margin.

I have to agree with this. I would expect Walz to be leading by high single to low double digits, given that Minnesota is still, generally, a Lean Democratic state, and given the national environment. But it is still early in the campaign season.
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2018, 04:21:57 pm »

Unlike the "experts", I think this is more winnable for Republicans without Pawlenty, but itís still going to be a difficult race for Johnson. Lean D, although an upset wouldnít really surprise me if Republicans are having a better than expected night.

Agreed. I'm thinking of the 2010 PA-SEN race.
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2018, 05:13:44 pm »

New Poll: Minnesota Governor by Suffolk University on 2018-08-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 41%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2018, 05:41:20 pm »

Prediction: 41% of the vote ends up roughly being Johnsonís final numbers.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2018, 10:23:44 pm »

Prediction: 41% of the vote ends up roughly being Johnsonís final numbers.
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« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2018, 04:20:45 am »

Huh this is closer than I thought it'd be, but maybe people more knowledge about Minnesota politics are unsurprised.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2018, 02:51:29 pm »

Good! I hope Tim Walz continues to poll like this from this point onward. If the Minnesota DFL can withstand two GOP waves, it can definitely win this forthcoming election!
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2018, 04:02:48 pm »

I'm pretty confident Walz will win.  He's likable, accomplished, ticks the right boxes... and doesn't wanna go dismantling the system the DFL has kept going for decades now.  The Minnesota economy is doing better than any point since the mid '90s.

Keep in mind no Republican has won statewide office since Tim Pawlenty's 0.9 point plurality margin in 2006.  The MNGOP's choices were an unpopular former governor and the losing candidate from last time.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2018, 05:55:48 pm »

Trump won't win MN
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2018, 02:56:56 pm »

Unlike the "experts", I think this is more winnable for Republicans without Pawlenty, but itís still going to be a difficult race for Johnson. Lean D, although an upset wouldnít really surprise me if Republicans are having a better than expected night.
Yep, Walz is in huge danger of complacency. Johnson seems to me the type to make a late bounce the way DJT did nationwide 1 year ago.

"Yep, Northam is in huge danger of complacency. Gillespie seems to me the type to make a late bounce the way DJT did nationwide 2 years ago."
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