WI-Marquette: Baldwin +2

[Gass3268]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

I might need to confirm that with Charlie. That seems like a pretty big assumption for one pollster to hang their hat on, given what 2014 looked like.

I’m pretty sure that’s what there methodology has said in the past, but I’d have to double check.

[MT Treasurer]

I swear only MO-SEN produces worse #takes than this race. Marquette is not a Republican-leaning pollster, their final poll in 2016 showed Feingold winning by 1 and Clinton by 6. Their LV model is definitely weird, and the numbers with RV are almost certainly closer to being accurate. This race could have been interesting with a decent candidate, but Baldwin is a relatively strong incumbent facing a very weak candidate in Vukmir in what is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats. Likely D for now.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

RIP Wisconsin Dems. Vukmir will energise the WOW suburbs and pull an upset in this Badger Red Wave.

[2016]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

Republicans coming home as expected. Will it be enough to salvage the House? Likely not but it could salvage the Senate for them.

The Enthusiasm gap is actually pretty good for Senate Races in MO, ND, IN, WV. It might not make a difference here but will be good for other Races.

[Wiz in Wis]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

RIP Wisconsin Dems. Vukmir will energise the WOW suburbs and pull an upset in this Badger Red Wave.

I mean, it's hard to argue with this, given that the GOP held those two special state senate elections really easily and also held on to the State Supreme court race. O_o

[Gass3268]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

This does not correspond to actual events that have occurred. Two very Republican State Senate Seats and a State Supreme Court seat don’t flip with numbers like these.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This looks like good news for John McCann.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Wow! Republican enthusiasm gap!

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1032328489150689280

Republicans coming home as expected. Will it be enough to salvage the House? Likely not but it could salvage the Senate for them.

The Enthusiasm gap is actually pretty good for Senate Races in MO, ND, IN, WV. It might not make a difference here but will be good for other Races.

Right? Republicans vote, Dems don't. It's been that way for a long time. Dems have screwed themselves trying to chase country club billionaires, who will always come home to their natural party.

[LimoLiberal]

Facts don't care about your feelings. If the enthusiasm gap in the poll favors Republicans, thats what's the truth, no matter how much you feel that it should favor Democrats.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's so good to see complacent Dems waking up to how much they've ruined their chances in the Midwest. Perhaps, this is the kick in the gut they need to change their ways and stop ignoring the WWC as well as the rurals.

[Greatblueheron]

It looks like Democrats need to invest more in defending Baldwin, or they could have a bad night on November 6th.

[Politician]

It's so good to see complacent Dems waking up to how much they've ruined their chances in the Midwest. Perhaps, this is the kick in the gut they need to change their ways and stop ignoring the WWC as well as the rurals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxjirh4M1f8

[Zaybay]

this entire thread has become two trolls jerking each other off.

Anyway, no matter how you look at this, this poll is the definite outlier. Just because they are in the state doesnt make them the master of polling for it.

[BudgieForce]

this entire thread has become two trolls jerking each other off.

Anyway, no matter how you look at this, this poll is the definite outlier. Just because they are in the state doesnt make them the master of polling for it.

They were the Gold Standard until today apparently. Funny how the tables turn.

They were the gold standard untill they blew 2016.

[Zaybay]

this entire thread has become two trolls jerking each other off.

Anyway, no matter how you look at this, this poll is the definite outlier. Just because they are in the state doesnt make them the master of polling for it.

They were the Gold Standard until today apparently. Funny how the tables turn.

They were never the ""Golden Standard"". They got 2016 wrong, and many other races. Ive never said they were a top quality pollster, and I believe other pollsters that used to be ""Golden Standard"", like Emerson and Trafalgar, have fallen before.

[2016]

Based on the E-Gap I predict Republicans to win Senate Races in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota effectivly shutting down the Democrats winning the Senate.

I always said it's a fools errand to believe Democrats could win in IN, MO, ND in a MidTerm Year. They need almost 30% of crossover Vote from Republicans or Republican-leaning Indies. That's just a fact. Go figure your D-Trolls.

[Politician]

Based on the E-Gap I predict Republicans to win Senate Races in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota effectivly shutting down the Democrats winning the Senate.

I always said it's a fools errand to believe Democrats could win in IN, MO, ND in a MidTerm Year. They need almost 30% of crossover Vote from Republicans or Republican-leaning Indies. That's just a fact. Go figure your D-Trolls.

Why, then , did they win them in a PRESIDENTIAL YEAR?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yep, Marquette blew 2016...in the direction of overconfidence toward Dems.

[Gass3268]

Marquette has one of the strictest Likely Voter models. You have to have voted in the last midterm for you to get through their screen.

I might need to confirm that with Charlie. That seems like a pretty big assumption for one pollster to hang their hat on, given what 2014 looked like.

I’m pretty sure that’s what there methodology has said in the past, but I’d have to double check.

Found it, you have to tell them that you are absolutely certain that you are going to vote. Even saying that you are very likely to vote bumps you out of the likely voter screen. Other pollsters typically will include those in that second tier after absolute certainty.

[Skye]

this entire thread has become two trolls jerking each other off.

Anyway, no matter how you look at this, this poll is the definite outlier. Just because they are in the state doesnt make them the master of polling for it.

They were the Gold Standard until today apparently. Funny how the tables turn.

They were never the ""Golden Standard"". They got 2016 wrong, and many other races. Ive never said they were a top quality pollster, and I believe other pollsters that used to be ""Golden Standard"", like Emerson and Trafalgar, have fallen before.

Funny how a poster who seems to search for pollsters ratings on 538 likes to ignore Marquette's A rating.

They got 2016 wrong, sure, but that doesn't mean they're bad.

[Dr. Arch]

Oh Atlas...

[BudgieForce]

Oh Atlas...

Yeah, I'm done. This website is ing toxic.

[Zaybay]

this entire thread has become two trolls jerking each other off.

Anyway, no matter how you look at this, this poll is the definite outlier. Just because they are in the state doesnt make them the master of polling for it.

They were the Gold Standard until today apparently. Funny how the tables turn.

They were never the ""Golden Standard"". They got 2016 wrong, and many other races. Ive never said they were a top quality pollster, and I believe other pollsters that used to be ""Golden Standard"", like Emerson and Trafalgar, have fallen before.

Funny how a poster who seems to search for pollsters ratings on 538 likes to ignore Marquette's A rating.

They got 2016 wrong, sure, but that doesn't mean they're bad.

....? When do I do that? I just say that there are certain pollsters I put more stock into, and I dont really care about the 538 rating. Pollsters can be wrong, and this one is clearly an outlier out of the polls we have gotten. If one poll says tied, and every other poll says D+10-D+20, then you dont go with the one that is tied.

[2016]

Based on the E-Gap I predict Republicans to win Senate Races in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota effectivly shutting down the Democrats winning the Senate.

I always said it's a fools errand to believe Democrats could win in IN, MO, ND in a MidTerm Year. They need almost 30% of crossover Vote from Republicans or Republican-leaning Indies. That's just a fact. Go figure your D-Trolls.

Why, then , did they win them in a PRESIDENTIAL YEAR?

Because we had Mourdock in IN, Akin in MO and Berg in ND...utter bad clown Candidates.

Candidates matter.