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Author Topic: WI- Marquette Polling: Tie  (Read 2558 times)
Former Senator Zaybay
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« on: August 22, 2018, 12:26:07 pm »

Among Registered Voters

Walker(R)*: 46%

Evers(D): 44%

Among Likely Voters

Walker(R)*: 46%

Evers(D): 46%
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2018, 12:27:00 pm »

Looking at this poll, I might say this is actually the worst one we have gotten. The same sample got Baldwin up 2 over her R opponent.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2018, 12:28:16 pm »

It's LV screen is total junk if it simultaneously has Evers and Vukmir improving compared to RV.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2018, 12:28:33 pm »

Evers and Baldwin are still structurally favoured, because Evers is +11 favourable and has room to grow (35% unknown) and Baldwin also has better favourables than Vukmir ...
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2018, 12:31:18 pm »

Considering that this poll also had Baldwin up just 2, which is way more R friendly than other polls, I'm not sure we should be collectively wetting our pants yet, but I expect this race to be close.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2018, 12:42:41 pm »

Tossup all the way.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2018, 12:46:26 pm »

Burke was up by 2% at this same point in 2014, lol.  That was in a GOP wave year.  Tossup with Evers slightly favored given this year's political climate.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2018, 12:48:17 pm »

Before Republicans/concern trolls gloat and Democrats despair over a tied poll, remember that this race was supposedly "likely R and barely even competitive" like 6 months ago. This is also a 4 point improvement for Dems from their previous poll.

Still a toss up, as expected. Evers winning by a double digit landslide was always a pipe dream.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2018, 12:51:45 pm »

People are coming up with all kinds of weird explanations to justify a lean/likely/safe D/R rating here, but all signs point to it being a Tossup race. Dislike or love Walker as much as you want, but thereís a good chance that letting your personal feelings about him impact your ratings isnít going to serve you well.
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AOC for President 2032
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2018, 01:03:09 pm »

Egg in the face for all the complacent Red Avatars here. You can't win Wisconsin on Milwaukee/Madison alone, and anyone else saying other wise is a fool. The WOW suburbs + the Dem collapse in the rurals will hand Walker an extremely easy victory that would hearken back to the Tommy Thompson days of the 90s. 
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2018, 01:08:29 pm »

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2018, 01:11:11 pm »

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.
Yep, hard to argue with those numbers. Where was everyone telling us to wait for Marquette?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2018, 01:14:50 pm »

Many of the rurals are not showing favorable strength to Republicans as evidenced by primary totals. Walker is definitely at a disadvantage asking for a third term. Even he has as much admitted that he's going to have trouble.
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AOC for President 2032
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2018, 01:16:30 pm »

Many of the rurals are not showing favorable strength to Republicans as evidenced by primary totals. Walker is definitely at a disadvantage asking for a third term. Even he has as much admitted that he's going to have trouble.
I'm gonna trust the Gold Standard Marquette poll over wonky primary numbers that have no bearing with actual results.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2018, 01:23:32 pm »

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.
Yep, hard to argue with those numbers. Where was everyone telling us to wait for Marquette?

It depends on how you want to look at it.  If I was Walker, I would be quite concerned that a poll that is +10 on right track/wrong track only has me tied.  The numbers for Vukmir and Trump also imply that they got an R-friendly sample.  Marquette is a good pollster, but it's just one poll, and margin of error exists for all pollsters, good or bad.

In any case, this race still a toss-up. 
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2018, 01:27:23 pm »

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.
Yep, hard to argue with those numbers. Where was everyone telling us to wait for Marquette?

It depends on how you want to look at it.  If I was Walker, I would be quite concerned that a poll that is +10 on right track/wrong track only has me tied.  The numbers for Vukmir and Trump also imply that they got an R-friendly sample.  Marquette is a good pollster, but it's just one poll, and margin of error exists for all pollsters, good or bad.

In any case, this race still a toss-up. 
...or you can look it as...Walker has a lot of room to grow with undecideds. Also, Vukmir is riding on Walker coattails, which explains her excellent numbers.
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Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2018, 01:28:45 pm »

How will Hofoid react if this pol said "Evers +15"?

"FAKE NEWS! Obviously Walker will win because the Democrats are chasing Dallas billionaries and ignoring the WWC. Also, Safe Titanium Vigindanium R."
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Arch
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2018, 01:36:55 pm »

Oh Atlas...
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2018, 01:52:20 pm »

PPP: Evers +5
Marist: Evers + 13
Emerson: Evers +7
Marquette: Tie

Blue Avatars: LOL Evers is done!
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2018, 02:37:52 pm »

The LV screen in this poll is literally if you voted in 2014. If Walker can only tie among 2014 voters, I donít want to say heís DOA but that is not good news.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2018, 02:40:18 pm »

It really is horrible that the guy who just got nominated doesn't have the same name rec as the sitting Governor. Just give up on this race and spend money elsewhere preferably somewhere actually competitive, like Texas.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2018, 02:42:05 pm »

A lot of blue state GOPers have bucked the trend and managed to win in secular states. But, the GOP, is vulnerable in OH, FL and AZ, that can more than make up for it.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2018, 02:42:20 pm »

The LV screen in this poll is literally if you voted in 2014. If Walker can only tie among 2014 voters, I donít want to say heís DOA but that is not good news.

False. Lies.
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2018, 02:44:58 pm »

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.
Yep, hard to argue with those numbers. Where was everyone telling us to wait for Marquette?

Walker is in trouble I don't deny that. It comes down to Turnout and that's where I think he has still an Advantage. I remember the Marist NBC Poll who had Evers up 11. That was a really, really wonky Poll to put it mildly.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2018, 02:45:32 pm »

Marquette is obviously an outlier up to now, but they are also more respected. MU was among the first to show RoJo pulling ahead of the dearly departed, flawless god of campaign finance law, Russel Dana Feingold. They're a good pollster and to dismiss this poll because it's not what you want to see is the definition of ostriching.

There's a chance (obviously) that Walker hangs on, but at the moment, Evers seems to have a lead between 2 and 5 points. His lead could grow. It could evaporate. Toss up with a slight D tilt is appropriate here.
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