WI- Marquette Polling: Tie

[2016]

Marquette is obviously an outlier up to now, but they are also more respected. MU was among the first to show RoJo pulling ahead of the dearly departed, flawless god of campaign finance law, Russel Dana Feingold. They're a good pollster and to dismiss this poll because it's not what you want to see is the definition of ostriching.

There's a chance (obviously) that Walker hangs on, but at the moment, Evers seems to have a lead between 2 and 5 points. His lead could grow. It could evaporate. Toss up with a slight D tilt is appropriate here.

If Marquette is an Outlier the NBC/Marist is an even bigger one.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Marquette is obviously an outlier up to now, but they are also more respected. MU was among the first to show RoJo pulling ahead of the dearly departed, flawless god of campaign finance law, Russel Dana Feingold. They're a good pollster and to dismiss this poll because it's not what you want to see is the definition of ostriching.

There's a chance (obviously) that Walker hangs on, but at the moment, Evers seems to have a lead between 2 and 5 points. His lead could grow. It could evaporate. Toss up with a slight D tilt is appropriate here.

If Marquette is an Outlier the NBC/Marist is an even bigger one.

A) I never claimed Marist wasn't an outlier. It is.

B) I don't particularly feel like doing a weighted average based on sample size, but based on these numbers

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The simple polling average is Evers +6.25.  Marist is off by 6¾%, while MU is off by the aforementioned 6¼%. I fail to see the benefit of splitting hairs over a half of a percent on polls in August.

And I lean more towards trusting MU anyways, FTR. They have a better Wisconsin track record, they know the State and were generally the most accurate in the last cycle. Which is why I guestimated that Evers is up by less than the simple polling average of the last 4 publicly released polls.

[Arkansas Yankee]

PPP: Evers +5
Marist: Evers + 13
Emerson: Evers +7
Marquette: Tie

Blue Avatars: LOL Evers is done!

Remember the Johnson race.  He was behind in every poll except 3 Survey Monkey polls in the last 10 days.

Let’s be logical about what is driving GOP enthusiasm in Wisconsin.  In good part it is Walker.  The base is very loyal to him.  He got a large personal vote in the primary.  Because of the stupid recall the base views him as a hero fighting government union bosses and leftist crazies.  This enthusiasm will assist other GOP candidate.   Trump and the booming economy also probably play a part.

You lefties maybe making the same mistake with your unrelenting attacks on Trump.  We shall see.

[DrScholl]

Many of the rurals are not showing favorable strength to Republicans as evidenced by primary totals. Walker is definitely at a disadvantage asking for a third term. Even he has as much admitted that he's going to have trouble.

I'm gonna trust the Gold Standard Marquette poll over wonky primary numbers that have no bearing with actual results.

You are really a troll if you think that actual election numbers count for less than polling. With that said, how is a tie even remotely good for an incumbent Governor?

[Landslide Lyndon]

How does it make sense that both Vukmir and Evers do better with likely voters?
Are there that many Evers/Vukmir new voters?

[pbrower2a]

51% say WI is on the Right Track

41% say WI is on the Wrong Track

Likely Voters

Tells you a lot.

Yep, hard to argue with those numbers. Where was everyone telling us to wait for Marquette?

Walker is in trouble I don't deny that. It comes down to Turnout and that's where I think he has still an Advantage. I remember the Marist NBC Poll who had Evers up 11. That was a really, really wonky Poll to put it mildly.

As 2016 showed in America, horrible people can be elected here.  Terrible people usually have the huge special-interest money that defends people who seek to do terrible things to us.

If someone promised to allow employers the freedom to use the whip to get workers to work more effectively, then there would be money behind it. Sure, the current array of political leaders brings out my worst fears for America. Why shouldn't they? Cynicism is the only realism in a political order as debased as ours has become.

Remember -- slavery thrived politically because it was profitable, and not because slave-owners and slave-traders were horrible people. Whenever you see something corrupt and cruel operating openly, you can trust that wealthy and powerful people support it.

[Beet]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

[ON Progressive]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

[Beet]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

Can you provide a source for that? The exit polls are adjusted to match the actual result, which must mean that the demographic factors are adjusted until their bias is removed.

[IceSpear]

Half of Marquette's final poll was conducted before the Comey letter. That's a far simpler explanation of why they got it wrong.

[ON Progressive]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

Can you provide a source for that? The exit polls are adjusted to match the actual result, which must mean that the demographic factors are adjusted until their bias is removed.

Here’s a good article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think I have seen more partisan excuses and hysteria, more so in the Baldwin thread than this one, on this forum before. People are just going to denounce any pollster, no matter how credible, if it disagrees with what they think 'sounds about right'. Its pretty pathetic.

News flash: Baldwin isn't that popular, Walker isn't DOA, and Republicans have a strong starting base in Wisconsin.

FWIW I think Evers has a slight advantage, and I don't think this is the gold standard.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely to be upsets and Walker can win.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by Marquette Law School on 2018-08-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[krazen1211]

Polls in Wisconsin underestimate the GOP. Even a gold star pollster like Marquette didn't see how badly they would lose the 2016 election.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Many of the rurals are not showing favorable strength to Republicans as evidenced by primary totals. Walker is definitely at a disadvantage asking for a third term. Even he has as much admitted that he's going to have trouble.

I'm gonna trust the Gold Standard Marquette poll over wonky primary numbers that have no bearing with actual results.

Your meltdown in November will be hilarious.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls in Wisconsin underestimate the GOP. Even a gold star pollster like Marquette didn't see how badly they would lose the 2016 election.

Walker has been through this before and has won multiple times in a Democratic state like WI, but he won't have coattails, like he did for Trump in 2016.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Many of the rurals are not showing favorable strength to Republicans as evidenced by primary totals. Walker is definitely at a disadvantage asking for a third term. Even he has as much admitted that he's going to have trouble.

I'm gonna trust the Gold Standard Marquette poll over wonky primary numbers that have no bearing with actual results.

Who would be daft enough to value ACTUAL VOTES over one poll?!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Game over, man! Game over! Wisconsin truly is safe R! Walker will be Governor for life!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He couldn't be prez, he will continue to win in WI, and Tony Evers isn't the most charismatic guy.

[Mr. Illini]

Now we can say it for sure: Toss Up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss-up for sure

[Xing]

Now we can say it for sure: Toss Up

Not sure why this is so hard for people. If we take the two post-primary polls, the average is Evers +2.5, which is pretty close to my actual prediction, and still what I would consider a Toss-Up race. Hopefully we'll get more polls (and people won't dismiss/unskew the ones they don't like) and have a better idea where this race is in the coming months. It seems like with a few exceptions, we've been getting far fewer polls this cycle.

[Gass3268]

This poll has Evers only winning the City of Milwaukee by 14 points. Tom Barrett had the worst result this decade in 2010 and even he won the City by 49 points.

Every other region is in the realm of possibility, but that's just nuts.

[libertpaulian]

This poll has Evers only winning the City of Milwaukee by 14 points. Tom Barrett had the worst result this decade in 2010 and even he won the City by 49 points.

Every other region is in the realm of possibility, but that's just nuts.

Yeah, Marquette really dropped the ball on this.