Marquette is obviously an outlier up to now, but they are also more respected. MU was among the first to show RoJo pulling ahead of the dearly departed, flawless god of campaign finance law, Russel Dana Feingold. They're a good pollster and to dismiss this poll because it's not what you want to see is the definition of ostriching.
There's a chance (obviously) that Walker hangs on, but at the moment, Evers seems to have a lead between 2 and 5 points. His lead could grow. It could evaporate. Toss up with a slight D tilt is appropriate here.
If Marquette is an Outlier the NBC/Marist is an even bigger one.
A) I never claimed Marist wasn't an outlier. It is.
B) I don't particularly feel like doing a weighted average based on sample size, but based on these numbers
The simple polling average is Evers +6.25. Marist is off by 6¾%, while MU is off by the aforementioned 6¼%. I fail to see the benefit of splitting hairs over a half of a percent on polls in August.
And I lean more towards trusting MU anyways, FTR. They have a better Wisconsin track record, they know the State and were generally the most accurate in the last cycle. Which is why I guestimated that Evers is up by less than the simple polling average of the last 4 publicly released polls.
