WI- Marquette Polling: Tie

[ON Progressive]

The LV screen in this poll is literally if you voted in 2014. If Walker can only tie among 2014 voters, I don’t want to say he’s DOA but that is not good news.

[ON Progressive]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

[ON Progressive]

This is strange. In a post-2016 study of why the polls were wrong (and nowhere were they wrong as consistently as WI), it was claimed that the pollsters underestimated the share of white working class voters. However, this does not bear out in the last Marquette Law School poll, which had Clinton +6. In that poll, 46% of voters were college graduates. Similarly, in the CNN exit poll, 45% were college graduates. In the Marquette Law School poll, 36% were high school graduates or below, and in the CNN exit poll, only 20% were high school graduates or below. So if anything, the 2016 Marquette Law School poll overestimated the education level of the electorate, yet still got it wrong.

This Marquette Law School poll finds 55% are college educated, which is reasonable given that it's a midterm. But if education does not explain why they were wrong in 2016, what was the reason? Could it be that Republican voters were afraid of being called bigots or voting for someone the media had so strongly shamed?

The exit polls consistently overestimate the education of the electorate itself though.

Can you provide a source for that? The exit polls are adjusted to match the actual result, which must mean that the demographic factors are adjusted until their bias is removed.

Here’s a good article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html