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February 15, 2019, 02:38:37 pm
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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Author Topic: TX-NBC/Marist: Abbott +19  (Read 460 times)
yeah_93
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« on: August 22, 2018, 04:07:53 pm »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrat-o-rourke-trails-ted-cruz-just-four-percentage-n902946

Abbott (i) (R) 56
Valdez (D)     37
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2018, 04:12:46 pm »


This is the largest lead yet for Abbott that I have seen. And it's interesting to see Abbott polling so strongly, in the mid fifties. This is about where I expect the race to end up, and I think Abbott will be the major factor in bailing out Cruz.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2018, 04:17:36 pm »

inb4 "<insert some Democrat who also would be losing by double digits here> would've made this competitive!"
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Clinton Blumenthal Murphy Lamont voter for Trump
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2018, 04:18:28 pm »

Andrew White would probably be losing by only 10, but yeah, Safe R->Safe R.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2018, 04:57:15 pm »

Actually IceSpear, Andrew White would've lost this race yes but he would've lost it by 10 rather than 20, and that could be all the difference in the end for some downballot races.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2018, 05:19:46 pm »

Safe R, now how about a poll from a state like Kansas/Iowa/Maine?
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2018, 05:20:07 pm »

Safe R, but I highly doubt that there will be that many Abbott/O'Rourke voters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2018, 05:20:21 pm »

New Poll: Texas Governor by Marist College on 2018-08-16

Summary: D: 37%, R: 56%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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UncleSam
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2018, 05:27:04 pm »

Safe R, but I highly doubt that there will be that many Abbott/O'Rourke voters.
This. There’s just no way there is a difference of 15% on Election Day between the governor and senate results, as this poll finds. This also leads me to believe that most of the undecideds in the senate race are Abbott voters or leaners - the math doesn’t really work out otherwise unless you believe that like 12% of the electorate will vote for Abbott / O’Rourke in November.

If O’Rourke keeps the senate race close Abbott will not win a twenty point blowout. If he does win a twenty point blowout, then the senate race won’t really end up all that close.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2018, 07:37:19 am »

Safe R, but I highly doubt that there will be that many Abbott/O'Rourke voters.

I agree mostly, there'll probably be about 5%, so most likely Cruz and Dem environment bringing Abbott down to 10-12 points instead of what this poll shows.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 08:23:14 am »

Wow.
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