1996: What if Pete Wilson Didn't Have Throat Surgery?

[Free Bird]

Pete Wilson, then Governor of California, briefly ran for President in 1996. By all accounts, he was a very qualified candidate, having been a Senator from and Governor of the most populous state in the country. However, he was almost immediately stopped by a throat surgery that prevented him from talking. What if he hadn't had this setback? Would his home state have provided him with enough recognition and money to get the nomination? How many primaries would he have won if any? How would he have done against Clinton?

[KingSweden]

I think it was “Doles turn” to to much of an extent for him to win

[Fuzzy Bear]

Wilson might have been a formidable candidate, and may have actually carried CA.  But he was pro-choice; the GOP wasn't going to put an openly pro-choice candidate on their Presidential ticket.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Interesting thought but BJ was near the height of his popularity, and likely would've beat anyone running against him:

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Republicans were stupid enough to nominate a pro-choice candidate for President that year they would have lost all the South and not made up for it anywhere else.

I don't agree.  Wilson was running on border security back then, and it would have been a popular theme in the South back then.

Wilson was also socially conservative on criminal justice issues; abortion was his only unorthodoxy.

[DrScholl]

Wilson would have never carried California. Prop. 187 effectively destroyed the Republican Party in the state and 1996 was the same year that extremist Bob Dornan lost.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wilson would have never carried California. Prop. 187 effectively destroyed the Republican Party in the state and 1996 was the same year that extremist Bob Dornan lost.

Not really 1996 a similar prop to that passed in CA i believe.

[OSR stands with Israel]

this is what I think the map would have been:

Clinton/Gore 359
Wilson/Kemp 179

[Joe Biden 2024]

this is what I think the map would have been:

Clinton/Gore 359
Wilson/Kemp 179

Why does Clinton win South Dakota? The others I can figure out, but I can't figure out South Dakota.

[DrScholl]

Wilson would have never carried California. Prop. 187 effectively destroyed the Republican Party in the state and 1996 was the same year that extremist Bob Dornan lost.

Not really 1996 a similar prop to that passed in CA i believe.

Prop 187 was passed in California in 1994 and pretty much ruined Republican chances in the future. Saying that undocumented immigrants should be denied emergency room care is pretty awful even if it does pass at the ballot box. Republicans got the blame for it.

[CookieDamage]

Interesting thought but BJ was near the height of his popularity, and likely would've beat anyone running against him:

What's with Clinton's 39 rating around 2001?

[OSR stands with Israel]

this is what I think the map would have been:

Clinton/Gore 359
Wilson/Kemp 179

Why does Clinton win South Dakota? The others I can figure out, but I can't figure out South Dakota.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996


Dole barely won the state and I feel he is a far better fit for that state than Wilson would be

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wilson would have never carried California. Prop. 187 effectively destroyed the Republican Party in the state and 1996 was the same year that extremist Bob Dornan lost.

Not really 1996 a similar prop to that passed in CA i believe.

Prop 187 was passed in California in 1994 and pretty much ruined Republican chances in the future. Saying that undocumented immigrants should be denied emergency room care is pretty awful even if it does pass at the ballot box. Republicans got the blame for it.

Not really

This prop passed in 1996: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_209

I would say 2005 Special Elections were the elections where the GOP collapsed

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Interesting thought but BJ was near the height of his popularity, and likely would've beat anyone running against him:

What's with Clinton's 39 rating around 2001?

I'm remembering some blaming him for 9/11, i.e. he didn't do enough to protect from attacks, as GWB was in office for only a few months at that point.

[SingingAnalyst]

Interesting thought but BJ was near the height of his popularity, and likely would've beat anyone running against him:

What's with Clinton's 39 rating around 2001?

President Clinton, on his last day in office, had pardoned Marc Rich, who had been indicted in 1983 on 65 counts including tax evasion and wire fraud; the pardon received considerable media attention and Clinton received a lot of "flak" for it; Time magazine's Feb. 26, 2001 cover was "The Incredible Shrinking Ex-President".

[Progressive Pessimist]

Interesting thought but BJ was near the height of his popularity, and likely would've beat anyone running against him:

What's with Clinton's 39 rating around 2001?

Pardongate?

[Ye We Can]

He'd still of flamed out. He broke a pledge not to run for President and was a terrible fundraiser despite being a formidable candidate on paper. I don't think he could carry California, although that is because of the term pledge rather than proposition 187 as that wouldn't of mattered yet in 1996.

[Lechasseur]

He wouldn't have won the nomination, and if he did, I think he does considerably worse than Dole (who did as well as he did because he was a good fit for the more rural states). Against Wilson, I think Clinton holds on to all the states he won IRL except maybe Arizona along with winning most of the South, and just maybe the Dakotas and Montana as well.