WI: Hainan, Zhoushan Islands remains a part of the ROC

[Kingpoleon]

What if Chiang successfully holds onto Hainan and the Zhoushan Islands? With a larger presence, could they claim rightful ownership of Macau and Hong Kong?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's difficult to see how the ROC holds onto Hainan. It was a hotbed of Communist activity even before the Japanese invasion. It was the indigenous guerilla support that made the 1950 invasion of Hainan successful. If the ROC had managed to hold onto the Zhoushan islands until the Korean War brought the US 7th Fleet to the area, the ROC might have held onto them.

In any event, holding onto one or both areas wouldn't have changed the switching of international recognition of which government was the government of China from the ROC to the PRC, so Macau and Hong Kong would both have been returned to the PRC. Holding onto Hainan might have made the PRC less aggressive in their pursuit of the nine dash line in the West Philippine Sea.

[Kingpoleon]

It's difficult to see how the ROC holds onto Hainan. It was a hotbed of Communist activity even before the Japanese invasion. It was the indigenous guerilla support that made the 1950 invasion of Hainan successful. If the ROC had managed to hold onto the Zhoushan islands until the Korean War brought the US 7th Fleet to the area, the ROC might have held onto them.

In any event, holding onto one or both areas wouldn't have changed the switching of international recognition of which government was the government of China from the ROC to the PRC, so Macau and Hong Kong would both have been returned to the PRC. Holding onto Hainan might have made the PRC less aggressive in their pursuit of the nine dash line in the West Philippine Sea.

If the U. S. 7th Fleet is brought in earlier, by Stalin’s encouragement, it could help keep reinforcements from reaching Hainan. And if Khrushchev, seeing a stronger ROC, wanted to, he could probably negotiate a deal for the ROC pledging international recognition of the PRC in exchange for Macau and Hong Kong being recognized as belonging to the ROC. The Soviets didn’t want a strong Communist China that could take over their leadership of international communism.

Edit: It might also be more practical if the Japanese take Hainan and Taiwan in 1895.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Back in 1895, Hainan had been a part of China for about two millennia, but Taiwan had only been part of China for about two centuries.  It wasn't really as integrated into China as Hainan.  Taking Taiwan could be seen as a transfer of a colony from one country to another. The same couldn't be said for Hainan.

[Beet]

It's difficult to see how the ROC holds onto Hainan. It was a hotbed of Communist activity even before the Japanese invasion. It was the indigenous guerilla support that made the 1950 invasion of Hainan successful. If the ROC had managed to hold onto the Zhoushan islands until the Korean War brought the US 7th Fleet to the area, the ROC might have held onto them.

In any event, holding onto one or both areas wouldn't have changed the switching of international recognition of which government was the government of China from the ROC to the PRC, so Macau and Hong Kong would both have been returned to the PRC. Holding onto Hainan might have made the PRC less aggressive in their pursuit of the nine dash line in the West Philippine Sea.

If the U. S. 7th Fleet is brought in earlier, by Stalin’s encouragement, it could help keep reinforcements from reaching Hainan. And if Khrushchev, seeing a stronger ROC, wanted to, he could probably negotiate a deal for the ROC pledging international recognition of the PRC in exchange for Macau and Hong Kong being recognized as belonging to the ROC. The Soviets didn’t want a strong Communist China that could take over their leadership of international communism.

Edit: It might also be more practical if the Japanese take Hainan and Taiwan in 1895.

That would probably push China into the U.S.'s corner even faster, and bring forward to the Sino-Soviet split into the early 1950s and Nixon's opening to China becomes Eisenhower's opening. At that point the U.S. drops support for the ROC, switching to the PRC and Hainan is taken anyway.

[Kingpoleon]

Back in 1895, Hainan had been a part of China for about two millennia, but Taiwan had only been part of China for about two centuries.  It wasn't really as integrated into China as Hainan.  Taking Taiwan could be seen as a transfer of a colony from one country to another. The same couldn't be said for Hainan.

Han settlement of Taiwan began in the thirteenth century. Han settlement of Hainan did not begin until the fourteenth century, and Han Chinese was never really a majority in either until at least the 1700s. On both islands, the Han Chinese are mostly descended from eighteenth-century immigrants from Fujian.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While there were few Han on Hainan, it was considered part of the Empire, off and on, as early as the 2nd century BCE.  In contrast, there were at most a couple thousand Han on Taiwan prior to the Dutch taking the island and it wasn't considered a part of the Empire until 1683 with no real effort at colonizing it until the 1760s. Indeed, the only reason the Chinese were interested in Taiwan was they didn't want another power controlling the island.

[jaichind]

I think a more likely scenario would be if somehow ROC armed forces somehow held on to Yunnan Province (雲南.)   

After the the 3 decisive battles of Liaoshen (遼瀋) [We on ROC call it Liaohsi(遼西)] Huaihai(淮海)[We on ROC call it Shubeng(徐蚌)], and Pingjin(平津) of late 1948-early 1949 the core of the ROC armed forces were smashed by the PLA.  The only real ROC intact army group beyond the GuangShi faction(桂系) forces belong to the Hu Zongnan(胡宗南) army group based in Sian(西安).  As it is Hu's army group in 1949 continued to fight Peng Dehuai(彭德懷)'s PLA First Field Army Group in the NorthWest with Hu slowing losing ground but not defeated despite the collapse of the ROC armed forces elsewhere in 1949.  In Nov 1949  Hu's army group was moved into Sichuan(四川) to counter Liu Bocheng(劉伯承)'s PLA Second Field Army Group and was defeated since Hu did not have time to setup proper defenses against the fast moving PLA moving into Sichuan(四川).

Meanwhile in remote Yunnan(雲南), Lu Han(盧漢) was the ROC Governor but had questionable loyalties and was almost certain in touch with the CCP as CCP victory seems inevitable.  Lu pretty much allowed pro-CCP elements openly operate in Yunnan(雲南) starting in 1948.  Of course Yunnan(雲南) was quite remote and if Lu defected to the CCP the PLA was nowhere close enough to be able to come support him.  In fact as late as Sept 1949 Lu shifted toward to pro-KMT position and started to arrest pro-CCP elements in Yunnan(雲南).  Most likely he was fearful that the GuangShi faction(桂系) forces might move their forces into  Yunnan(雲南) using Lu's pro-CCP position as an excuse and he needed to head that off.  As soon as the  GuangShi faction(桂系) forces were defeated in GuangShi by the PLA in Nov 1949, Lu's position shifted again.  In early Dec 1949 Lu's bribed part of the small ROC armed forces in Yunnan(雲南) to join his defection to the PRC and bribed the rest to retreat toward the Burma border and leave him alone.  In fact during this period it seems Lu was also in talks with the CIA to seek USA support and military aid for an independent  Yunnan(雲南) separate from both PRC and ROC.  In the end Lu must have figured the CCP could offer him a better deal.  The PLA finally arrived in Yunnan(雲南) in Feb 1950 given the large number of rivers and mountains between Yunnan(雲南) and Kweichow(贵州)/Guangshi(廣西).

Now if in early 1949 the ROC High command would accept that the battle against the PLA was lost then they could have ordered Hu Zongnan(胡宗南) army group not to stick around in the Northwest but to immediately march into  Yunnan(雲南).  In such a situation the size of Hu Zongnan(胡宗南) army group would mean that Lu could not pull off his sellout to the CCP.  And given the difficult terrain of  Yunnan(雲南), if the USA was able to help supply the  Hu Zongnan(胡宗南) army group in Yunnan(雲南) with military aid like those that went to ROC armed forces on Taiwan Province after the breakout of the Korean War then the ROC armed forces could have held out in Yunnan(雲南) indefinitely especially if the KMT could mobilize the various Yunnan(雲南) ethnic minorities to back the KMT over the CCP.

Holding out in Yunnan(雲南) is much more likely than holding out in Hainan had the ROC High Command moved in large amount of forces to Yunnan(雲南) in early 1949.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But if the US is actively supporting an ROC redoubt in Yunnan it makes it far less likely that the DPRK would invade the ROK. Part of the calculus that led to the invasion was the assumption that like China, the US wouldn't do anything significant in Korea.

[jaichind]

But if the US is actively supporting an ROC redoubt in Yunnan it makes it far less likely that the DPRK would invade the ROK. Part of the calculus that led to the invasion was the assumption that like China, the US wouldn't do anything significant in Korea.

Agree.  On the flip side if there was no Korean war, then PLA intervention would not be a factor in the patriotic consolidation of the CCP regime in the 1950-1953 period.  In 1950-1952 there were very significant levels of anti-CCP uprisings in many parts of Mainland China.  They were defeated because of
a) Lack of coordination and support from the ROC armed forces based in Taiwan Province
b) anti-CCP forces allied with bandits which turned mostly neutral population to a pro-CCP position
c) Most importantly the PLA intervention in Korean war which fought the USA forces to a draw was a significant factor in consolidating Chinese patriotism behind CCP.

If there were no Korean War then the PLA would have a much more difficult time dealing with the various anti-CCP uprisings to deal with the ROC base in Yunnan.  Also Yunnan under ROC control could actually become a base to support anti-CCP uprisings in Guizhou, Szechuan and Guangshi, all of them are provinces which does not have a legacy of CCP support and only were taken over by the PLA due to the quick collapse of ROC armed forces in late 1949.