PA-Marist: Casey +15

[IceSpear]

This can't be right. That other "poll" said Casey was only winning by 1.87 points.

[IceSpear]

Safe D. Lou Barletta is tied with Bill Nelson and Confederate Corey for running the worst campaign in a competitive Senate race.

lol

[IceSpear]

JESUS. Trump's approval in the state amongst African Americans is 2%

So Trump is doing 34 points worse with Pennsylvania African Americans than he is with African Americans nationwide.

Anyone want to do a long effortpost #analysis about why this is the case?

[IceSpear]

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.

Kinda hard to get "Warner'd" when there's no Republican wave that would potentially cause such a thing to occur.

[IceSpear]

Considering Marist had Evers up 13 (what a laugh), shouldn't we question the legitimacy of this poll? I mean, I have no doubt Casey's gonna win, but not like this.

Completely agreed. This race is strong Lean D. I could potentially see Casey getting Warner’d. After all folks, there is almost always at least one big upset on election night.

Kinda hard to get "Warner'd" when there's no Republican wave that would potentially cause such a thing to occur.

I don't get "Warner'd" being a thing too, considering Warner ultimately won anyway.

I assume it means barely winning a race you were supposed to win in a blowout. Funnily enough, Gillespie himself got Warner'd in the 2017 primary, lol.

[IceSpear]

Junk.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-presidential-debates/polls-clinton-ahead-florida-pennsylvania-n662076

So you're debunking it with a poll a month before election? It was in line with the average at the time it was conducted. And the average was only wrong by 3 points the day before the election. So if anything you should be arguing "it's too early for polls to mean anything", not "Marist is junk."

[IceSpear]

Even without a blue wave, I couldn't see Casey losing to Barletta.  Casey's well-liked, and Barletta's already had his spotlight during his illegal immigration crackdown years ago.  Trump dominates that conversation now, which is showing in the lack of effort on Barletta's part this cycle.  I'm wondering if things will ramp up a lot post-Labor Day, or if the NRSC has shelved this one.

I mean Barletta still has a good chance to unite rural areas with his populist appeal, but he can also easily be painted as more moderate image for the philly burbs, that would be his path, it’s hard but it’s there.

Oh, I'm sure Barletta will do great among Pennsyltuckians, but if he wanted to effectively go the populist route, his path would be through the Pittsburgh and Scranton 'burbs, not the Philly ones.  And that's hampered by John Fetterman and Conor Lamb turning heads in Western PA, and Casey being from the Scranton area.  I can't see a Wolf/Fetterman/Barletta or a Lamb/Barletta voter, can you?  Balancing appeal to Pennsyltuckians with appearing moderate enough to appeal to rich white soccer moms in Bucks County who love their kids' gay immigrant teacher is not within Barletta's realm of finesse, IMHO.  But I suppose we'll see in November.

I could see a lamb barletta voter but not the other one. As you said the others have the pittsburgh and north of schuylkill locked down and the neutral turf is philly suburbs where Barletta will have to make a play for those sorts of voters and use his moderate image as a homegrown businessman etc, I think he can do it, uphill climb, but he NEEDS to do that if he wants to win.

There's literally nothing moderate about Barletta's image, lol. The guy was Trump before Trump and became famous for being an anti-immigration zealot. He's going to get BTFO in the Philly suburbs worse than the some dude rich businessman did in 2012. That's not to say he's guaranteed to do worse statewide though. If his campaign wasn't such a hot mess he'd have a much better chance at getting big swings in parts of the state where Casey got a much higher level of support than a typical Democrat.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Marist College on 2018-08-16

Summary: D: 53%, R: 38%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details