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| | |-+  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  PA-Marist: Wolf +14
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Author Topic: PA-Marist: Wolf +14  (Read 562 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 23, 2018, 04:04:29 pm »

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNews_MaristPoll_PennsylvaniaAnnotatedQuestionnaire_1808201202_wit.pdf

Wolf 54
Wagner 40
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2018, 04:05:44 pm »

Enough to flip the House, though?
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2018, 04:06:27 pm »

Democrats are up on the Generic Congressional ballot 51-39, which would probably flip the state house and net almost all the competitive us house seats.
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2018, 04:08:52 pm »

The only real question in this race is if Wolf does slightly better or slightly worse than he did in 2014. On one hand, Toxic Tom Corbett won't be weighing down the GOP this time. On the other hand, they won't have an R wave to help them, and will very possibly have a D wave to contend with.
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2018, 04:09:52 pm »

We should only believe the polls showing Wolf/Casey/Baldwin up by low single digits because something something 2016. Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2018, 04:11:34 pm »

Scott Wagner is embroiled in a new embarrassing scandal every day, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Wolf doing even better than this on election day.
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2018, 04:28:58 pm »

Democrats are up on the Generic Congressional ballot 51-39, which would probably flip the state house and net almost all the competitive us house seats.

And it would be just in time to prevent the PAGOP from trying to amend the state constitution to pry legislative redistricting power away from a commission soon to be controlled by Democrats!
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2018, 04:30:56 pm »

Enough to flip the House, though?
I think so, there are so many incumbent retiring. They could as well make many gains in the senate. Even if only half of the state senate is up, most of the "competitive districts" were put during the midterms intentionnally, the republicans believing it would help them to hold them.
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2018, 04:36:24 pm »

Trump has a 60% disapproval rating amongst college educated whites
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2018, 04:36:38 pm »

The only real question in this race is if Wolf does slightly better or slightly worse than he did in 2014. On one hand, Toxic Tom Corbett won't be weighing down the GOP this time. On the other hand, they won't have an R wave to help them, and will very possibly have a D wave to contend with.
Wagner might be even worse than Corbett.
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 04:42:51 pm »

What’s with the Trump approval being so high in Western PA?
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2018, 04:49:15 pm »

Wolf is winning the West 49-44%, thanks to John Fetterman

He's also polling 40% in rural areas
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2018, 05:00:35 pm »

Trump has a 60% disapproval rating amongst college educated whites



What’s with the Trump approval being so high in Western PA?

Is there a reason it wouldn't be? Western PA is Trump country.
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2018, 05:02:09 pm »

But I thought this was a tossup because that poll showed Wolf was only ahead by 3

Safe D, obviously. The only question is the margin.
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2018, 08:42:33 pm »

This poll's really fun to pick apart-

60% of those voting for Wolf strongly support him while it's only 40% for Wagner

He's winning 14% of Trump voters

He's +7 with men and +20 with women

He's winning the west 49-44%

He's winning nearly 20% of people who are either Conservative or Very Conservative

Winning white college graduates 61-35%

So from the loos of it, Wolf is on his way to a well-deserved easy reelection.
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Stacey Abrams (D-Georgia)
Mark Begich (D-Alaska)
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2018, 09:30:22 pm »

Trump has a 60% disapproval rating amongst college educated whites



RINOTom sock #37? Tongue
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2018, 10:04:43 pm »

Wolf willl win between 6-9 points, he's not gonna win by 14
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2018, 01:54:45 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Marist College on 2018-08-16

Summary: D: 54%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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