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August 24, 2019, 05:52:16 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  PPP: Rosen +5
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Author Topic: PPP: Rosen +5  (Read 2424 times)
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: August 24, 2018, 04:48:58 pm »

Rosen: 48
Heller: 43

Also interestingly enough the issue of should Heller back Kavanaugh was polled and it was 47/42 against Kavanaugh
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-poll-shows-slightly-more-nevadans-than-not-think-heller-should-oppose-kavanaugh/
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2018, 04:49:41 pm »

But but but Jacky Rosen is an uninspiring candidate and UTDH was leading according to Gravis!
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DaWN
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2018, 04:55:40 pm »

This is more or less what I expected to see this race at. Lean D, although probably closer to Likely - Heller's only chance is if the national environment gets much MUCH better for the GOP.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2018, 04:56:09 pm »

Just wait until Unbeatable Titan Dirty Daddy Dean Heller runs ads about how bad Jacky Rosen's haircut is. Her numbers will go into freefall.

And if that fails, there's always his ace in the hole. An ad quoting Atlas Forum posters about how Jacky Rosen is the worst candidate in American history, to lock down the political junkie nerds in their teens/20s demographic.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2018, 04:57:42 pm »

Why didn't they poll a more competitive race?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2018, 04:59:44 pm »

Why didn't they poll a more competitive race?

So true. Why poll a safe R race?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2018, 05:17:57 pm »

Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but itís just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2018, 05:31:04 pm »

Hmm wonder why it is taking so long for mds to put this in the database.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2018, 05:32:19 pm »

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2018-08-21

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2018, 05:43:44 pm »

Quote
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Sounds like Nevada is ripe for Republican dominance this year. Roll Eyes
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2018, 05:44:36 pm »

Fake news. Atlas told me Heller was not just Unbeatable, but also literally Titanium
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2018, 07:16:20 pm »

Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but itís just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.

Possibly.  They may have to tell Adelson and the Koch Brothers to take it over.

But even with this poll the RCP average would only be Rosen +2.8.  It is too early to desert a sitting Senator.  With the polling errors in 2016 and the wild swings in Florida Democrat Governorís race, you just cannot let polls make all the decisions.

If the GOP should leave Nevada, the Democrats should leave Florida.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2018, 07:20:00 pm »

Fake news. Atlas told me Heller was not just Unbeatable, but also literally Titanium

Nobody told you any such thing.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2018, 07:31:43 pm »

Well, as expected Rosen is outperforming Sisolak
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Zaybay
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2018, 07:35:29 pm »

I am shocked, shocked I tell you!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2018, 07:36:01 pm »

Heller might make this somewhat close if the national environment improves for Republicans, but itís just not going to happen for him this year. The NRSC should triage this and put more effort into winning MT/WV.

Possibly.  They may have to tell Adelson and the Koch Brothers to take it over.

But even with this poll the RCP average would only be Rosen +2.8.  It is too early to desert a sitting Senator.  With the polling errors in 2016 and the wild swings in Florida Democrat Governorís race, you just cannot let polls make all the decisions.

If the GOP should leave Nevada, the Democrats should leave Florida.

If there is another polling error in 2018, it will impact the Midwest and states like MT/ND/WV more than NV, where Heck and Trump couldnít even win in a Republican year. Heller being the incumbent doesnít change the fact that heís not the strongest candidate (to put it mildly) and that NV leans strongly D in a year like this. By your logic, Democrats shouldnít have triaged someone like Pryor in August either (yes, yes, obviously NV is much more competitive than AR, but still...).

I fail to see what the "wild swings" in a gubernatorial primary in an entirely different state tell us about the general election in a state like Nevada. Obviously, a GE has a smaller slice of persuadable voters, so the swings wonít be as wild here as in a primary.
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2018, 07:36:45 pm »


We all are.
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1J
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2018, 07:44:08 pm »

PPP is a Democratic, abortion-loving Planned Parenthood hack pollster and Nevada is full of low turnout Latinos. I just canít wait to taste those liberal tears when Unbeatable Titan Heller wins re-election !
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2018, 08:23:14 pm »

Rosen is too far under 50% to win.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2018, 08:40:25 pm »

PPP is a Democratic, abortion-loving Planned Parenthood hack pollster and Nevada is full of low turnout Latinos. I just canít wait to taste those liberal tears when Unbeatable Titan Heller wins re-election !

Yeah Adam Laxalt and Jacky Rosen can be elected at the sametime
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
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« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2018, 09:05:30 pm »

Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2018, 09:16:02 pm »

Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut my HeLlEr unBeAtAblE TiTan SadSadSadSadSadSad
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2018, 09:28:19 pm »

Clearly the polls are underestimating Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller, just like they did in 2012 and for Republicans in 2016!

Oh wait, polls actually underestimated Democrats in Nevada every recent race except NV-GOV 2014. And Heller's actually polling worse than Trump or Heck, who both lost. Nevada's the most likely seat to flip, Atlas. Deal with it.
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-ut my HeLlEr unBeAtAblE TiTan SadSadSadSadSadSad

I know, right? Cry

Btw, love how the poll was entered, IceSpear, lol.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2018, 09:40:20 pm »

Yeah, that's why we have Senator Shelly Berkley now...oh, wait.
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2018, 10:04:47 pm »

Would not be shocked to see a 53-42-5 type of result for Rosen
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