Come on down South, John Kerry!

[ShapeShifter]

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0504/p09s03-coop.html

[tigerfan04]

It was a good read, and I agree with what she is trying to say.  But I still don't think Kerry or Bush cares about the region other than to get votes.

[Beet]

I agree but its more than just Kerry, he has to worry about the battlegrounds. The Democratic party needs to do more to expand the base in the South.

[agcatter]

Expand it's base in the South?  What base?

If Kerry indeed wants to travel south and ask for votes, he might want to shut uncle Teddy up.  Does the author just assume that Southern whites are voting in Presidential elections to the tune of about 70% Republican for no reason at all?  Uh, it might have a little something to do with the continued drift to the left of the national Democratic Party over the last 40 years.  The author seems to just gloss over that little fact.  If the Dems address that minor little detail she might have something.  They won't and she doesn't.

[Reaganfan]

Kerry stands no chance in the south, not with a Southern Republican running.

[tigerfan04]

He is texan, not southern.  After visiting there I think texas would be better described as western.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good article... recently Bush has been gaining in the Mid West, but this has been balanced by him losing support in the South.
There's no reason why Kerry should ignore the South.
(as for Texas: Some of it (the bit that borders AR and LA... and possibly the Lower Red River Valley) seems to be Southern... the rest isn't IMO)

[© tweed]

IGNORE THE SOUTH

[zachman]

IGNORE THE SOUTH

Nah, keeping the South close may pay off with a few EVs in Arkansas, Louisiana, and may make the difference in Florida. It is also important in winning Senate and House seats.

[Lunar]

IGNORE THE SOUTH

...without looking like you're ignoring it.

[M]

Texas is basically a Southern Stae from the Western edge of the deep part of Oklahoma in a line swinging South between Dalas and Ft. Worth (Dallas is Southern, Ft. Worth Western), San Antonio is on the South side of the line, eventually hitting the Mexican border. The only exception is Houston which, like Atlanta, is not distinctly of any region, and combines Souther, Northern, and Western elements. The panhandle is Great Plains, Hill Country in the center is a borderland but more West than South. The far west really is West. The AK-LA border is Deep South at least as far inland as Baeumont, but the rest of the Southern Areas are outer South, like Kentucky or central Oklahoma.

[© tweed]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

[zachman]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I'd put it at 50% and that state is Arkansas. All of the other Southern states are unlikely.

[© tweed]

I'd put it at 50% and that state is Arkansas. All of the other Southern states are unlikely.

He doesn't have a 50% chance at AR

[classical liberal]

it was like 50-50 in the last poll.

[© tweed]

it was like 50-50 in the last poll.

...your point?  I doubt that will hold.

[??????????]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I'd put it at 50% and that state is Arkansas. All of the other Southern states are unlikely.

Please tell me why you think a Liberal Massachusetts Yankee is going to win Arkansas? lol

[Lunar]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I think Kerry's odds of winning in either Florida or Arkansas combined are greater than 10%.  Both are lean Bush but if things progress beyond a tight race then I think both will go to the winner.

[??????????]

Odds Kerry will win a southern state: 10%

I think Kerry's odds of winning in either Florida or Arkansas combined are greater than 10%.  Both are lean Bush but if things progress beyond a tight race then I think both will go to the winner.

I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

[© tweed]

I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

I can see that.  I say a 5% lead is solid...Bush may very well have a 5% lead in FL.  Right now I have FL as 'lean Bush'...something like a 4.5% lead there for him.

[Lunar]

I am moving Florida from lean Bush to solid Bush. etch it.

But Florida has the potential to be a Bellweather state in this election.  If Kerry wins by 4-5%, which is reasonably likely (say 20%), then I doubt Florida will stay Bush.

[© tweed]

ANALOGY TIME

Florida is to Kerry as Michigan is to Bush

etch IT.

[??????????]

I like your prediction map and I am very curious as to where you got the base for that map Tweed. I see PA going Bush though. Check out my prediction map.

[© tweed]

I like your prediction map and I am very curious as to where you got the base for that map Tweed. I see PA going Bush though. Check out my prediction map.

NOTE THE MAP IS FOR IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY

Right now I am holding Kerry at a one point lead.  I had Bush with a marginal lead a few days ago, and swinging one point or so to Kerry swung PA and NH, plus it solidifed (Kerry +5) Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington.

[Lunar]

ANALOGY TIME

Florida is to Kerry as Michigan is to Bush

I don't agree.  I think Michigan will likely still go Kerry even if Bush wins by 5%, I don't think the same for Florida.  Florida could go to the winner by the same amount as West Virginia in this election, they look about the same right now.  I'm not sure if there is a comparison for Bush.