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  Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?
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Author Topic: Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?  (Read 2980 times)
Thunder98
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« on: August 26, 2018, 11:41:37 am »
« edited: August 26, 2018, 11:50:54 am by Thunder98 »

Mississippi has been a GOP stronghold for many elections and lasted voted Democratic in 1976 with Jimmy Carter. (Electoral history from 1988-2016)















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Thunder98
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2018, 08:36:52 pm »

Why did Mississippi swung Democratic in 2012 while most states swung more Republican at the same time?
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2018, 08:57:24 pm »

Why did Mississippi swung Democratic in 2012 while most states swung more Republican at the same time?

Higher black turnout. County results suggest Obama did a bit worse among whites in the state in 2012 than his already dismal 2008 level.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2018, 09:58:28 pm »

The answer to any question about MS is stagnant.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2018, 11:29:00 pm »

Trump actually lost 11,000 votes compared to Romney,  and 24,000 votes compared to McCain, probably as a result of attrition. Clinton lost 80,000 votes compared to Obama. If Clinton had turned out Obama's voters, she would have had 45%. Which means the Democrats gain 1.5% to 2% each cycle just from attrition of the GOP vote, when they turn out their own voters.


I think it will trend Democratic as the 65 and up demographic dies off, because they are the ones keeping the White Vote at >80% Republican. If the White vote slips into the mid 70's Republican (which is still the most Republican of any state), MS becomes a tossup. If the Democrats nominate Harris or someone who can replicate the excitement of Obama, I think MS is at that point by 2028.
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2018, 01:08:37 am »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 02:17:55 am »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic. 

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.
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« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2018, 03:05:34 am »

If you had the white vote of 1988 in MS swung so Dukakis and H.W Bush are equal in terms of terms of the PV, black turnout of 2012 Mississippi would be around 46-47% democratic in 2012.
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Meltdown Mike
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« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2018, 09:39:01 pm »

A battleground state in 10 years
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2018, 10:43:26 pm »

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2018, 12:41:26 am »

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.

All that does is buy them another cycle or two. 5% would reduce the Dem % by 1.5% overall give or take. Could make the difference in a tight race, but it is not going to reverse a trend or replace the losses the GOP is experiencing among their most solid voters from attrition.
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2018, 01:11:36 am »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.
Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic. 

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.


Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

R+2 in 30-39, R+16 in 40-49, R+9 in 50-64, and R+56 in 65+.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2018, 01:28:26 am »

For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.

This is great analysis although it brings up the question of if the black vote can also become slightly depolarized in 10-20 years in Mississippi. This seems crazy today but so did the notion that Trump would match/slightly exceed Romney’s performance with Latinos in early-mid 2016. 

A slightly more friendlier face GOP that still has a staunch center-right position on immigration, pro fair trade, and pro manufacturing could end up doing 5-10 points better with the black vote in Mississippi down the line. This is a state with a lot of black manufacturing workers after all. We do know young black men are already less democratic than their elder counterparts.

All that does is buy them another cycle or two. 5% would reduce the Dem % by 1.5% overall give or take. Could make the difference in a tight race, but it is not going to reverse a trend or replace the losses the GOP is experiencing among their most solid voters from attrition.


True but I’d combine that with the the state also having a notorious brain drain problem. Democrats can’t keep a lot of those left leaning younger voters in MS when they’re leaving the state.
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2018, 05:57:46 am »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.
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« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2018, 04:02:55 pm »
« Edited: August 28, 2018, 04:22:31 pm by President North Carolina Yankee »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic.  

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.


Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

There is a massive age gap in most every Southern state. Adam made a map that illustrated just how substantial it is (I should really keep that thing tabbed). VA is skewed I think by the extremely low 2014 turnout meaning the millennials polled were not representative and hence why Gillespie did so well in NOVA against Warner and why the map doesn't have VA colored like say CO.

I thought it'd be interesting to explore how the youngest and oldest cohorts are currently voting and measure the discrepancy between those two groups' margins as a way of peeking into the future.

I decided to look at 2014 for multiple reasons, including the fact that it is the most recent election and that these individuals (especially going forward for the young cohorts) are/will be the core, reliable voting blocs for each subset of the population. I could have used 2008 data, but sheesh: it's 8 years old now.

Obviously we don't have exit polling data for every state, but you can use it to observe general trends for several regions of the country, and definitely so for the South. All but two states' (ME & WV) youngest voters are more Democratic than their oldest voters; in WV, the margin difference was 2 points.

Shades indicate the difference between 18-29 & 65+ voters' margins in 2014. In states where exit polling was available for both gubernatorial and senatorial races, both outcomes were averaged together to produce the result.



The five states with the biggest discrepancies between 18-29 & 65+ groups:

State'14 Mar-Diff (Pts)18-2965+
CO81D+61R+20
SC58D+19R+39
MS43D+3R+40
GA43D+13R+30
TX42R+3R+45

The Solid DEM South Shall Rise Again!!! And this time thanks to millennials, minorities and college educated whites.


Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.
Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic.  

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.


Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/MS/president/

R+2 in 30-39, R+16 in 40-49, R+9 in 50-64, and R+56 in 65+.

and D+12 among those 18-29.

Whites also voted 89% for Romney and comprised just 59% of the electorate with Obama boosting black turnout to the mid 30's. So while having Obama goosed the white vote for the Republicans, it was still more than counteracted by the increased black and young voter turnout.

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2018, 04:04:41 pm »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.


Logically what NCYankee has laid out makes sense but it’s hard to reconcile the idea that MS will become a tossup given its brain drain problem and it being...Mississippi. I guess we’ll see how the senate race there plays out this year.
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« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2018, 04:28:49 pm »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.


Logically what NCYankee has laid out makes sense but it’s hard to reconcile the idea that MS will become a tossup given its brain drain problem and it being...Mississippi. I guess we’ll see how the senate race there plays out this year.

I wouldn't expect anything noticeable to happen in a midterm.
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2018, 10:57:07 am »

If Bill Clinton (D, AR) could not win Mississippi, then no Democrat is going to win Mississippi with the current pattern barring a 450-EV blow-out.

Should Republicans have trouble with the farm vote in 2020, they might lose such a blowout. In such a case, Mississippi is the least of Republican problems.
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« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2019, 06:57:22 pm »

Georgia and Texas are closer to flipping to the Democratic column than Mississippi will ever be. 
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2019, 08:11:16 pm »

Trending Democrat but only in the sense where I could see it being purple by, say, 2050, and blue by 2070 at this rate. I swear there has to be some kind of instructions Mississippi voters get that makes the state vote always Republican by similar margins. Even with what should be a better Democratic race in their special election it's looking pretty 57-43 for Republicans. They also almost always have the lowest third party % in Presidential races, which suggests that there just aren't many independents there.

Seniors vote more than young people. White Seniors are more Republican than White Millennials even in MS, though MS White Millennials are more Republican than that of any other state. However this doesn't matter because any decline of the GOP among Whites, even just 10% would be catastrophic. 

MS Blacks vote 97% Democratic
MS Whites vote 85% Republican
Lets say the electorate is 65-35 White (it is a little higher but not much).

65 ^ .85  = 55.25%  + (35^.03) = 56.3%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.15) = 43.7%


Lets run it again with Whites at 75% Republican.

65 ^ .75  = 48.75%  + (35^.03) = 49.8%
35 ^. 97  = 33.95%  + (65^.25) = 50.2%


For MS not to trend Democratic, you are betting on the longevity of seniors in one of the most unhealthy states in the union (obesity, smoking etc) or Millennials being the just as Republican as their parents to the tune where they won't even drop 10% in Republican voting.


Are there exit polls/research studies that confirm that younger whites in Mississippi are 10% less R than the seniors? If anything, I would have thought there’d still be some demosaurs in that seniors cohort

Not really as Seniors now are overwhelmingly Boomers and late Silent


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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2019, 12:45:01 pm »

Georgia and Texas are closer to flipping to the Democratic column than Mississippi will ever be. 

At this point, it’s obvious but that doesn’t even answer the question.
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« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2019, 03:11:11 pm »

Mississippi will be a very Republican state up until the 2030s and 40s, when the minority population will overtake the white population and, naturally, cause Mississippi to become more Democratic. Black voters seem to be very inelastic and the modern GOP is trying to make sure that they never vote Republican.
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« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2019, 03:47:56 pm »

Yup

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« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2019, 01:27:27 pm »

Yes, and stagnant. It could inch itself a bit more Democratic in a few election cycles via slightly increasing black % of the vote, but it's gonna take decades. Unlike Georgia/North Carolina/Virginia, population growth is also stagnant so there's hardly any new voters to shift things quickly.
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« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2019, 02:06:27 pm »

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.
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