Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[ElectionsGuy]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

Yes I considered that, but the fact that the skew among seniors is so gappingly large and the high floor the GOP needs among whites, leads me to think the GOP will start losing ground at an accelerated pace over the next 10 to 15 years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

AP and EG, you guys are are not taking into account the effect of Millennial displacement of Seniors dragging down the GOP vote among whites.

Remember as I calculated above, Whites going down to just 75% Republican, makes Mississippi a tie and the few exit polls we have show a massive skew towards Republicans among those 65 and older.

While that could happen, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict they will get more Republican with age. Taking the 18-29 or 30-39 age bracket numbers can have a high margin of error, even higher when broken down by race. There's also the possibility of Dem dropoff in the black vote by 5-10% that gets underestimated.

Yes I considered that, but the fact that the skew among seniors is so gappingly large and the high floor the GOP needs among whites, leads me to think the GOP will start losing ground at an accelerated pace over the next 10 to 15 years.

By the time this math works out for MS Dems, don't you think Republicans will have improved enough with the rural black vote that it won't matter anyway?

I don't think they will improve much among rural blacks, certainly not in MS.

[AN63093]

The answer to the first question is easy- "yes" or if not yes outright, certainly among the most.  The South (and in particular, the Deep South), is the most inelastic region in the country, with FL as the only exception.  If it's not MS, then maybe AL?  But we're splitting hairs at that point.

The second question is also relatively easy- trending D long-term and it's pretty obvious.  NC Yankee has the correct analysis here, although one quibble- 2028 (even with an Obama type) seems optimistic. 

TTimmy, I don't think the brain drain issue (let's assume it continues) will have much an effect.  White millennials leaving will just be overwhelmed by White seniors dying off (of which there are more by the way), and the net effect is at best, zero.  Even if migration out is particularly severe (which is not unrealistic, MS is almost last in growth nation-wide, at 0.6%, and had a -4% growth of millennials over the past decade), I think that maybe just delays the inevitable by a decade or so.  Although you do have a point, and it's one reason why I think 2028 is a little too soon.

The only thing that will keep MS from flipping D eventually is if the black vote dramatically changes, and I don't think just a little depolarization would do it TTimmy.  Basically the black vote would have to essentially flip parties and start voting R... and while I won't say it will never happen, it's the sorta thing that would require a significant and unpredictable national black-swan type event.

By the 2030s or 40s, some less sophisticated political analysts will be scratching their heads and saying.. well gee, how in the world did MS ever flip.  When really, it was always pretty obvious.  The same thing will be said for ME (the counter-part to MS, in some ways, right up to the anemic growth), when in a few decades it is likely to be one of the most Republican states in the country.  ME will flip way before MS though, in fact, it's already happening as we speak.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

The answer to the first question is easy- "yes" or if not yes outright, certainly among the most.  The South (and in particular, the Deep South), is the most inelastic region in the country, with FL as the only exception.  If it's not MS, then maybe AL?  But we're splitting hairs at that point.

The second question is also relatively easy- trending D long-term and it's pretty obvious.  NC Yankee has the correct analysis here, although one quibble- 2028 (even with an Obama type) seems optimistic. 

TTimmy, I don't think the brain drain issue (let's assume it continues) will have much an effect.  White millennials leaving will just be overwhelmed by White seniors dying off (of which there are more by the way), and the net effect is at best, zero.  Even if migration out is particularly severe (which is not unrealistic, MS is almost last in growth nation-wide, at 0.6%, and had a -4% growth of millennials over the past decade), I think that maybe just delays the inevitable by a decade or so.  Although you do have a point, and it's one reason why I think 2028 is a little too soon.

The only thing that will keep MS from flipping D eventually is if the black vote dramatically changes, and I don't think just a little depolarization would do it TTimmy.  Basically the black vote would have to essentially flip parties and start voting R... and while I won't say it will never happen, it's the sorta thing that would require a significant and unpredictable national black-swan type event.

By the 2030s or 40s, some less sophisticated political analysts will be scratching their heads and saying.. well gee, how in the world did MS ever flip.  When really, it was always pretty obvious.  The same thing will be said for ME (the counter-part to MS, in some ways, right up to the anemic growth), when in a few decades it is likely to be one of the most Republican states in the country.  ME will flip way before MS though, in fact, it's already happening as we speak.

Maine is going to become one of the most Republican states in the country? doubt.

[AN63093]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

I'm not denying it's going to get more Republican, but it's hard to imagine it ever voting more than, say, R+10 unless the counter trends in ME-01 are reversed.

[AN63093]

Ah, OK.  Fair.  Apologies for assuming you were making a different point and being a little snarky.

Admittedly, part of what I'm saying is speculative, but I think it's grounded in a couple of key facts.  The most important being that ME millennials are more R-leaning than the seniors.  This is quite unusual, in fact, almost nowhere else in the country do you see this, even places like WY and ND.  So what happens when some millennials become more conservative when they age?  Well, in a place like CO where millennials are upwards of D+60, maybe nothing, or very subtle effects.  But in ME, when your baseline average millennial is actually more Republican than a baby boomer?  The dam could burst wide open.

I think it's not fully manifesting itself yet because ME is severely skewed in age- seniors don't quite outnumber millennials 2:1, but it's up there.  We're talking FL numbers, not CA.  Your point is taken with regards to ME-1, but at some point it will just be overwhelmed.  Maybe not in 2020,  but it will happen unless something changes.  Consider that every county but one trended R in ME, even in ME-1, and even Cumberland still swung R.  Growth in ME is also truly abysmal, it's less than 1%, and the only thing keeping it from being down at WV or IL levels is some modest growth in the Portland area.  So I simply don't see where the Dems are going to get the votes in a couple decades.

I could certainly be wrong, no doubt about it, but that's how I see it right now.

[pbrower2a]

One word will explain when Mississippi goes politically liberal: miscegenation. That will utterly destroy the tribalism in Mississippi politics in which even tiny hick towns have machine politics based on even a bare racial majority.

[Agafin]

Bump

Well, with almost all the votes counted, Mississippi really stands out compared to other states:

>Contrary to the consensus in this poll, it has both swung AND trended right for two consecutive cycles now. In 2012, it voted R by 11 points (15 points to the right of the nation), in 2016, it voted R by 18 points (20 points to the right of the nation) and now in 2020, it appears to have voted R by around 20 points (~25 points to the right of the nation).

>Turnout has also decreased for two consecutive cycles now (especially surprising in 2020 when almost every state saw massive turnout increases). 2020 might have 100k (~8%) less votes cast than 2012 even though the population stayed more or less the same.

What can explain these?

[prag_prog]

Bump

Well, with almost all the votes counted, Mississippi really stands out compared to other states:

>Contrary to the consensus in this poll, it has both swung AND trended right for two consecutive cycles now. In 2012, it voted R by 11 points (15 points to the right of the nation), in 2016, it voted R by 18 points (20 points to the right of the nation) and now in 2020, it appears to have voted R by around 20 points (~25 points to the right of the nation).

>Turnout has also decreased for two consecutive cycles now (especially surprising in 2020 when almost every state saw massive turnout increases). 2020 might have 100k (~8%) less votes cast than 2012 even though the population stayed more or less the same.

What can explain these?

There are still votes left to be counted in Mississipi...Biden will likely reduce the margin once after total count is finished

[bagelman]

Bump

Well, with almost all the votes counted, Mississippi really stands out compared to other states:

>Contrary to the consensus in this poll, it has both swung AND trended right for two consecutive cycles now. In 2012, it voted R by 11 points (15 points to the right of the nation), in 2016, it voted R by 18 points (20 points to the right of the nation) and now in 2020, it appears to have voted R by around 20 points (~25 points to the right of the nation).

>Turnout has also decreased for two consecutive cycles now (especially surprising in 2020 when almost every state saw massive turnout increases). 2020 might have 100k (~8%) less votes cast than 2012 even though the population stayed more or less the same.

What can explain these?

There are still votes left to be counted in Mississipi...Biden will likely reduce the margin once after total count is finished

Will it be by enough to reduce the R trend or eliminate the R swing?

[Annatar]

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

[Skill and Chance]

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

Yes, I don't get all the Mississippi Dem hype.  It's just too rural and very few people went to college. 

[H. Ross Peron]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

What is the other state in question?

[Red Wall]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

What is the other state in question?

Iowa

[ElectionsGuy]

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

All it took was a few election cycles to debunk the Mississippi trending left narrative, including coming from Republicans.

[Annatar]

A lot of people have wondered whether younger voters will turn MS blue as younger whites are less Republican, well according to the Fox Exit poll, Trump won voters aged 18-29 by 3% in MS, he won overall by 16.5% so there was 13-14% difference between how the electorate overall voted vs 18-29 year olds in MS, across the US as a whole, Biden won 18-29 voters by 25%, winning nationally by 4.4%.

What that means is MS is less polarized by age than the US as a whole and Trump carried 18-29 year old voters in MS which means it is likely staying red moving forward. Here is MS' partisan lean since 2000:

2000: R+17.4
2004: R+17.3
2008: R+20.4
2012: R+15.4
2016: R+19.9
2020: R+20.9

MS this year is on track to vote the most Republican relative to the country of any election this century.

All it took was a few election cycles to debunk the Mississippi trending left narrative, including coming from Republicans.

The way I look at it, since voters in their 20’s seem to become more republican as they age into their 30’s, you can see how voters in their 20’s in 2008 are voting now, any state where republicans outright win the 18-29 vote is staying republican for decades to come unless there is a realignment.

[DINGO Joe]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

What is the other state in question?

Iowa

Given the vote results, it seems virtually impossible for this to be true in Iowa.  If you looks at Census Data for Iowa for % over 65.  The counties with the lowest % of 65 and over, the metro and university counties, Polk, Dallas, Linn, Story, Johnson.  Biden won them all by 14 points plus except Dallas which is lost by 2.  Conversely, all the rural counties in Iowa have very high concentrations of over 65 and of course he lost all the rural counties usually by large margins.  It would take some seriously contorted voting patterns to make this happen. 

It's more likely that the exit polls are basically crap.